Overvaluing outs? KJo on Q48 board w/bd flush & straight

[bobdibble]

I liked this at the time, but hand review in the hand swap made me not so sure...

Party 5/10 6m, table is 5 handed

UTG has a PFR of ~25 over ~50 hands.

Hero has K /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif in the BB

<font color="red">UTG raises</font>, folded to hero, hero calls

Flop: Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Hero checks, <font color="red"> UTG bets</font>, hero calls?

My thinking was that I have 2 cards over mid pair with backdoor flush and straight draws. Since this guy has a 25 pfr and could have raised with quite a wide range of hands and I could have as many as 8 effective outs. I need to discount this somewhat since my K or J may be no good, but 1 of them probably is good for the full 3. So, I look at this as 5 or 6 discounted effective outs. Do I have the implied odds to continue here? Looking back on this, it is pretty thin.

Thoughts?

[Macdaddy Warsaw]

25% is a lot of hands, but do you think he's raising an 8 or a 4 UTG?

Fold the flop, or at least raise it to try to find out where you are. And I don't see how you have 8 outs unless you're including backdoor straights and flushes in there.

Anyway, just fold, the pot is small.

[bobdibble]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold the flop, or at least raise it to try to find out where you are. And I don't see how you have 8 outs unless you're including backdoor straights and flushes in there.


[/ QUOTE ]

Of course I am /images/graemlins/wink.gif They are outs too. Like I said, I think I have between 5 and 8 effective outs.. probably in the 5 to 6 range.

Short-handed is all about marginal situations rights? (Granted this one may be on the loosing side, which is why I posted it.)

[Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)]

I think you should either
1) fold the flop or
2) checkraise the flop and call a 3-bet intending to fold the turn UI, or to lead the turn if he just calls the c/r. On this raggedy flop, unless he has AA-QQ or AQ a flop c/r followed by a turn bet puts him in a tough spot.