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View Full Version : How much do you trust your read?


Derek in NYC
12-26-2004, 06:47 PM
Live 4/8. I'm in the cutoff with AQ offsuit. UTG is young, Asian, and very laggy, and he limps. All fold to late MP, who also limps. Late MP is sLA-A, not a bad player, but periodically a bit on the loose side such as cold calling with JTs. I raise. Button calls, which is a bit surprising, since she is an older woman, very much a rock. She won't re-raise QQ or AK without seeing a flop, for example. Even when the flop comes ace high and she is holding AK, she won't reraise an UTG raiser, because she seems afraid of a set of aces. In the game, I have had very good luck on putting her on hands. And I trust my read on her.

Both blinds fold, and the UTG uber-LAG three bets. The late MP, who has been urging a cap whenever he's not in the hand, says "cap it." I think for a second, and call. The button calls.

Flop comes Q98 rainbow, giving me TPTK. UTG checks, late MP bets, and I raise. (I thought about waiting until the turn to raise, but decided I would raise on the flop to define my hand early, and maybe force out the rock.) Instead of folding, she three-bets. UTG folds, and late MP also folds. At this point, I am 100% sure I am behind. My read was a set.

Your action.

pindawg
12-26-2004, 07:02 PM
Easy ... I'll let other's elaborate.

River2Pair
12-26-2004, 07:13 PM
[ QUOTE ]
At this point, I am 100% sure I am behind. My read was a set.

Your action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well lets see. If she has QQ, your only hope is running aces, and if she has a smaller set, you win by pairing the board and hitting your queen, in addition to by hitting running aces. You say you're 100% sure you're behind, but not 100% sure she has a set?

The pot is big enough to draw at your 4-outer if she has KK.

You're heads-up in a pretty decent sized pot. I don't think calling down is horrible. It would be nice to win every showdown you're in, but at the same time paying off occasionally isn't so bad.