99 on the bubble of a 100/9

[JelgerW]

In a recent 100/9 sit and Go on Party I found myself in the following situation, and I still can't figure out what the correct play is. I was on the button with the 2nd stack with about 3k in chips. There was a big stack with about 5k in chips in the Small Blind. Both other players had about 1k. The blinds were at 200/400 and I was dealt 99. The shortstacked player under the gun folded to me. What do you do here?

My options were:

-fold:
The easy way out. I can probably fold every hand from here where the chipleader is still to act so I never get involved in a hand with the big stack and get at least 2nd or 3rd place.
-raise to 1000 or 1200 and fold when I get raised by the chipleader. This seems pretty good, I don't want to fight the big stack, but do want to eliminate the small stack with my nines. The problem is: I think the chipleader, who had been very aggresive all tournament would put me all-in with any Ace, any pocket Pair, and any 2 face cards. That's a lot of hands where he just takes my 1000/1200 chips.
-raise to 1000/1200 and call the big stack. I'm probably a small favorite to win an all-in against the hands I think he would reraise me with, but taking a 45% chance of finishing out of the money is not really what I want here.
-Go all-in. He'd probably think twice about calling my all-in, calling only with premium hands: TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK, AQ maybe AJ. So I'd have a coinflip at best. I do have a very good chance of stealing the blinds when I make this move or to get the small stack all-in as a favorite. But does this +600 in tournament chips outweigh the risk of running into a big hand from the Chip Leader?

In this particular event I decided to shove my nines and walked into kings, leaving me with nothing.

Was this play wrong?
What should I have done?

Thanks in advance for helping me out.

JelgerW

[dtbog]

Welcome to the forum!

Call me tight near the bubble, but with an aggressive big stack in the small blind, I'm folding this. You don't really need those blinds, if you have 3k and the shortstacks have 1k with 200/400 blinds.

Cost/benefit: The best case scenario for you is that the big stack calls with 88. That aside.. do you really want a coinflip in this situation? If the big stack calls you with two overcards, you're now taking what was a relatively good chance of making the money and reducing it to a 50/50 luck-based coin toss.

Sure, most of the time you steal the blinds -- but I don't think this helps you all that much.

The push with 99 here is a risk I wouldn't take, but my bubble play is admittedly tight with big stacks on the blinds and shortstacks about to bust out.

-DB

[TT_fold]

[ QUOTE ]
In a recent 100/9 sit and Go on Party I found myself in the following situation, and I still can't figure out what the correct play is. I was on the button with the 2nd stack with about 3k in chips. There was a big stack with about 5k in chips in the Small Blind. Both other players had about 1k. The blinds were at 200/400 and I was dealt 99. The shortstacked player under the gun folded to me. What do you do here?

My options were:

-fold:
The easy way out. I can probably fold every hand from here where the chipleader is still to act so I never get involved in a hand with the big stack and get at least 2nd or 3rd place.
-raise to 1000 or 1200 and fold when I get raised by the chipleader. This seems pretty good, I don't want to fight the big stack, but do want to eliminate the small stack with my nines. The problem is: I think the chipleader, who had been very aggresive all tournament would put me all-in with any Ace, any pocket Pair, and any 2 face cards. That's a lot of hands where he just takes my 1000/1200 chips.
-raise to 1000/1200 and call the big stack. I'm probably a small favorite to win an all-in against the hands I think he would reraise me with, but taking a 45% chance of finishing out of the money is not really what I want here.
-Go all-in. He'd probably think twice about calling my all-in, calling only with premium hands: TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK, AQ maybe AJ. So I'd have a coinflip at best. I do have a very good chance of stealing the blinds when I make this move or to get the small stack all-in as a favorite. But does this +600 in tournament chips outweigh the risk of running into a big hand from the Chip Leader?

In this particular event I decided to shove my nines and walked into kings, leaving me with nothing.

Was this play wrong?
What should I have done?

Thanks in advance for helping me out.

JelgerW

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding here is weak-tight, since a push increases your stack by 20% if uncalled. Most of the time, you won't run into a monster from the big stack. In fact, you'll only be dominated 2-3% of the time (TT-AA). Moreover, your push will often cause him to lay down overcards.

Easy push.

[texasrattlers]

I would have raised the short-stacked BB to 1200. If big stack re-raises, I fold. If big stack calls, I check-fold on flop unless a 9 falls.

[Awesemo]

I think it does not matter much whether you fold or move all in. That being said, I think the worst option is raising to 1200 then folding to a reraise because if you are reraised allin you would most likely be getting correct odds to call. 99 is probably on the borderline of hands that you would move allin with here. I certainly would with TT, but maybe not with 88. IMO, the risk of the big stack calling you is about equivalent to the reward of stealing the blinds, so either pushing or folding is a fine play.

[texasrattlers]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it does not matter much whether you fold or move all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif


[ QUOTE ]
That being said, I think the worst option is raising to 1200 then folding to a reraise because if you are reraised allin you would most likely be getting correct odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]


You can play your pot odds at a cash table if you like, but I will gladly fold to a re-raise and maintain a solid shot at getting ITM rather than risking my tourney life on a coin flip at best.

[stripsqueez]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the worst option is raising to 1200 then folding to a reraise because if you are reraised allin you would most likely be getting correct odds to call

[/ QUOTE ]

hmmm - that sounds right to me - but in terms of making the money its not a disaster to lose 40% of your stack to the big stack by folding to the pre-flop reraise

i like push

stripsqueez - chickenhawk