Analyzing a Hand by Mason Malmuth

[jdl22]

Mason,

I enjoyed your article but didn't understand this part:

[ QUOTE ]
First off, the before the flop raiser probably has a pretty good hand. The reason for this is that he was able to make this play into what is perceived strength from his opponent. So it looks like top pair or an overpair that is not aces or kings. There's also some chance that he has a set, but it's not likely. Here's why.

To understand why he doesn't have a set, you need to think about why his opponent three bet the flop. Wouldn't it be more likely if he held something like aces or kings that he would just call and then raise on fourth street when the bet size doubles? While you can't be completely sure, many players will play precisely like this. But if he had something like ace-king he would frequently make it three bets looking for a free card on the turn in case an ace or king did not come.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, so the reraiser most likely has unpaired overcards given the way he played the hand. That I agree with and understand. I think you simply forgot to mention why the raiser couldn't have a set, though of course I could be wrong and simply not understand it. My guess is that with a set the raiser most likely would have capped not fearing much of anything on the turn or river. As it is he decided to wait until the safe turn.

Could you explain this a bit more?

Did you pay yourself the 1.25 bb for writing the article?

[Godfather80]

Jdl- I can't answer yours, but maybe you can answer mine. How can Mason besure that the preflop reraiser does not have QQ at any point in the hand? I think I understand all of Mason's thought processes except for this point. Help.

Godfather

[AdamL]

I think if he had a set, he wouldn't have raised the flop, but would have tried for a turn raise when the bet size doubles.

[1800GAMBLER]

Mason doesn't finish his sentance, it should read like this:

To understand why he doesn't have a set, you need to think about why his opponent three bet the flop. Wouldn't it be more likely if he held something like aces or kings that he would just call and then raise on fourth street when the bet size doubles? While you can't be completely sure, many players will play precisely like this. But if he had something like ace-king he would frequently make it three bets looking for a free card on the turn in case an ace or king did not come. The other player will suspect this and if he had a set he would cap to prevent a free card.


Following mason's psychology between these players the only time the preflop reraiser can be sure the other player doesn't have a set is when he doesn't cap.

Yet even that is somewhat untrue because if the preflop raiser suspected a free card player from AK he's almost just as likely to cap with his overpair as he is with a set.

So in short, there's no way of knowning he doesn't have a set, yet the line of 'call the 3 bet and bet the turn' makes it a medium amount more likely he has an overpair rather than set.