Raise on flop or turn?

[onegymrat]

9/18 Commerce, loose and full. Three limpers to SB, loose player, who raises. I 3-bet with K /images/graemlins/heart.gifK /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in BB. All call to some LP dude who caps because it's fun. All call. Five to the flop.

FLOP: 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif4 /images/graemlins/club.gif2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

SB bets. I call with the intention of raising the turn. Two callers behind me and LP capper folds. Four to the turn.

TURN: A /images/graemlins/spade.gif

SB checks. I bet. One fold. MP calls. SB calls. Three to the river.

RIVER: K /images/graemlins/spade.gif

SB checks. I bet. MP raises. SB folds. I call.

MP had 10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif to take the pot. I beat myself up for not raising the flop, which MP would be hard pressed to call. Any thoughts on when was the best time to raise?

[SinCityGuy]

I think you answered your own question. By merely calling, you gave the guy nearly the correct odds to call on his backdoor flush draw alone. If you raise, he's only getting 11.5 to 1, and he almost certainly folds on the flop.

[SpaceAce]

I understand why you might want to wait for the turn to raise but I think this is a bad time to do it. There are a lot of people in this pot and you have a chance to face three of them with calling two bets cold on the flop. Yes, if you raise they still have odds to call with a lot of hands but if you don't raise, they have odds to call with pretty much anything. Also, what if the small blind doesn't bet on the turn? Now the pot is even bigger and you can still only charge one big bet. Even if the small blind does bet, anyone who saw a cheap turn and picked up a draw will have the odds to call two cold.

I think I raise the flop and face everyone behind me with calling two cold.

SpaceAce

[Chris Daddy Cool]

not raising this flop is a booboo.

the main reason why people would wait till the turn to raise is because of equity reasons, where your equity can change drastically between the flop and the turn.

but look at the board. you have kings on a drawless board. your equity isn't going to improve that much on the turn as only an ace hurts you.

also something that many people tend to overlook in these hands is that the flop bettor will often not bet the turn, especially on raggedity boards as many cards will fall on the turn that will make them not want to bet.

for example if he's betting a medium or top pair of nines, a lot of cards on the turn will not make him want to bet again and then you miss your chance to raise and you'll never be able to make back those lost bets.

[onegymrat]

Thanks everyone for the thoughts so far. I really felt that SB was going to bet, for as loose as she was, she was rather aggressive often. She clearly had a medium pocket pair. Then again, that ace slowed her down which I wasn't expecting. But as you say, there are plenty of other cards that may have done that also.

What would you think a better example of when to fire on the turn?

[Rick Nebiolo]

One reason I'd raise the flop is that my call wouldn't fool anybody, even 9/18 players at the Commerce. The pre flop sequence has practically announced that you have a big pair. Let them guess which one and force them to pay early in the hand to outdraw you. You also can't rely on the SB betting the turn.

That said, you might get answers less likely to be tilted by results had you ended your lead post with the SB's flop bet and asked is it better to raise on the flop or wait until the turn.

~ Rick

[amulet]

vs several opponents bet out the flop. the only time not to, would be if you are in a position that the player on your right will raise and you can make it two bets to the field. if your heads up, you can play it slower. one big pair (even a set) often should be played fast, especially when you have several opponents, you don't want to let the monkey's with trash out draw you without making it expensive for them.

[ReMMy]

Not raising the flop is a huge mistake. Your hand is not good enough to give people a cheap card. The only time to consider this would be flopping hand like trips where collecting future bets from someone who makes a 2nd best hand outweighs occasionally losing the entire pot because you didn't drive out a weak draw.