Call...Call...Call...

[Schneids]

3-handed 30/60.

I raise K9o from the button, both blinds call.

Flop is JJ6 with two spades.

SB bets, BB folds, I call. I have the king of spades.
SB has been playing very, very passively lately (as in past 15 minutes). I've played with SB before and know he's a little too loose PF and usually plays much more aggressively postflop.

Turn 7s. SB bets, I call.

River J. SB bets, I call.

[balkii]

PF: no brainer

flop: cant fold, you easily have up to 6 outs most times when behind, and could also be ahead. you will sometimes see a steal/re-re-steal 3 bet on this flop (i know i have) but this is read dependant, how much control do you have over opponent?

turn: picked up the draw, so call or raise. would hate to get 3-bet. but hand has definite showdown value and a raise could have some bluff equity. again, this is read-based/control dependent. is he the type that will bet into you AGAIN on the river with a weak made hand if you raise here? how about a bluff? free showdown play works less and less in shorthanded games these days.

river: you made it this far because there was a possibilty you still hold the winner. the J falling on the river increases those chances. pretty much have to call.


so not much of a critique here, just trying to see if my thought processes are similar to yours on this one...

[bugstud]

Reading the M/H commentary, I like everyone else think gonores is on the right track. However, what was the plan if the turn bricked?

[joker122]

no sense in raising anywhere as your fold equity is usually zero in these situations. you only need to be good 1 in 7 to break even on the river, so a call there is fine, imo.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
Reading the M/H commentary, I like everyone else think gonores is on the right track.

[/ QUOTE ]

can you explain this?

[ALL1N]

I don't think there's a great deal to the hand. It's your read and nobody else's that he felt it was time to play back at you, and so you called the river. The rest is pretty standard.

[Robk]

i think there is something to be said for a raise on the river. i think you can legitimately represent a full house based on the way the hand played out. like you were looking to raise the turn but were scared out of doing so by the flush card (combined with the possibility he has a jack).

in typical bluff raise situations you have almost zero chance of winning a showdown. so you can make a straightforward comparison of your pot odds to the percent of his hand range you think he will fold. for example in this situation getting 7:2 he'd have to fold the worst 22% of his hands. but this decision is more complex, since by calling the river you assert that your chances of having the best hand are > 1/8. since calling is profitable, you have to calculate what range of his better hands he has to fold for raising to be more profitable. the answer turns out to be pretty low (~11%)

assuming you have a 15% chance of currently having the best hand:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>p(he folds winner) EV(call) EV(raise)
0.05 0.2 -0.2675
0.1 0.2 0.115
0.15 0.2 0.4975
0.2 0.2 0.88
0.25 0.2 1.2625

</pre><hr />

i particularly like this play because in my experience flush draws make up a large proportion of the hand range opponents will bet in this situation as many check their made hands and try to knock out the third player with a raise. and also in this situation he could be "bluffing with a better hand".

edit: EV is in big bets

[ALL1N]

How about his one?

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1319773&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;sb=5&amp; o=&amp;vc=1

[Schneids]

SB had T9o; I win with K9o.

I like the idea of a river raise. It has strong merit. Still not convinced about raising the turn though I acknowledge there are some reasons for doing so.