Fold a Flush Draw? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

Massad

12-25-2004, 01:16 PM

Reads: Very Good Table Overall. SB is weak-loose, VP$IP of around 33% or so. MP1 is very fishy, sees the flop more than 50% of time. Don't know much about the Button except that that was the first hand she played in an orbit, so I assumed she was pretty tight.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button raises, SB calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP1 folds, Button calls, SB raises, Hero calls, Button 3-bets, SB caps, Hero calls, Button calls.

River: (18 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB bets, Hero folds, Button raises, SB 3-bets, Button calls.

Final Pot: 24 BB

Please comment on the flop/turn play. Should I have called the cap on the turn? The pot was big, so I think yes, but it seemed like that majority of the time the flush wouldn't help me there.

Thanks.

SCfuji

12-25-2004, 01:19 PM

i think your spade draw is plenty live. i think i fold this river too... /images/graemlins/frown.gif

jclin

12-25-2004, 01:26 PM

Flop = good. Bet if you have the best hand, right?

Turn = a must call. You have 9 outs to flush, plus 2 aces to full house. That is 35/11 = 3.2/1 odds. Calling 2 BB to win 18, probably more? 9/1 odds? I want that hand!

P.S. Fold on river is good. All the betting implies a higher ace or an 8.

Massad

12-25-2004, 02:11 PM

The problem with that hand is that assuming the Button is tight and knows what she's doing (a big assumption indeed), the most likely hand that she could have played that way is pocket Aces. Obviously the pot is very big and my read is not close to perfect (that's why I called) but the way she called all the way and then suddenly check-raised the weak-loose check-raiser who could have trips, makes Aces-full a strong possibility.

SinCityGuy

12-25-2004, 02:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Turn = a must call. You have 9 outs to flush, plus 2 aces to full house.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would count the flush outs as 7, not 9.

MAxx

12-25-2004, 02:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The problem with that hand is that assuming the Button is tight and knows what she's doing (a big assumption indeed), the most likely hand that she could have played that way is pocket Aces. Obviously the pot is very big and my read is not close to perfect (that's why I called) but the way she called all the way and then suddenly check-raised the weak-loose check-raiser who could have trips, makes Aces-full a strong possibility.

[/ QUOTE ]

your read on this player is not developed enough to give her credit for most likely having pocket aces. one orbit... you may be beginning to form an opinion, but imo opinion it is still to early to make a valueable assumption on villain's tightness.

you are a player on this turn, and have the odds to continue.

jclin

12-25-2004, 02:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would count the flush outs as 7, not 9.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. It is 9 outs, as the 8 and 3 are already out there, and Hero holds the ace.

SinCityGuy

12-25-2004, 03:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree. It is 9 outs, as the 8 and 3 are already out there, and Hero holds the ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, you're saying he's going to win the pot 100% of the time when he hits his flush on this board? If you are, then you need to think about it some more.

If he's not going to win the pot 100% of the time when he hits his flush, he's got less than 9 outs.