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View Full Version : I'm losing money to a VPIP 96%/PFR 88%


aflaba
12-25-2004, 11:48 AM
I'm losing money to a VPIP 96%/PFR 88% and it's not the first time I do this. It feels like this is a repeating pattern, although it is possible that I only remember the times I've lost money against these evil fishes...

Are these hands ok?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP caps</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
MP has Ah 3c (three of a kind, jacks).
Hero has 9d Kc (three of a kind, jacks).
Outcome: MP wins 9.50 BB. </font>

----------

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif. MP posts a blind of $5.
Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP (poster) 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP calls.

Flop: (8.40 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.20 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.20 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.20 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
MP has 6h 5s (two pair, sixes and fives).
Hero has As Qc (one pair, fours).
Outcome: MP wins 9.20 BB. </font>

One would think I would love these players, but I really really hate (playing against) them.

aflaba
12-25-2004, 11:49 AM
He goes to showdown with 60% of his hands.
He bets 90% of his hands all the way.

aflaba
12-25-2004, 11:56 AM
By the way. I'm tilting but I can't stop playing since he is such a jucy opponent... I'm on the verge of tears.

We've played 150 hands in which I have been dealt fantastic hands, AA, KK, QQ and JJ several times. AK many times. I've had an incredible run of cards. Still I'm down $200 on the table.

Please help me. What drug to buy from the pharmacy? :-/

ctv1116
12-25-2004, 11:58 AM
The strategy is pretty clear here. Since he is raising with a random 2-card hand, you can easily calculate whether you are ahead or behind (what % of random hands beat you). If he always bets (i.e. never calls, folds, or checks), you are bound by pot odds to always call to showdown heads-up.

You will have a lot of variance, but think about it this way: if you're just going to call a pre-flop raise and then a bet on the flop, turn, and river, you are basically racing against a random hand. When you hold AQ, you like your chances. It's a 65-35 edge with AQo and 57-43 with K9o, which I think you'll be more than happy to take.

fyodor
12-25-2004, 11:59 AM
Is this a joke? A troll post? You 3 bet K9o out of the SB and wonder why you're losing money?

sammy_g
12-25-2004, 12:03 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Is this a joke? A troll post? You 3 bet K9o out of the SB and wonder why you're losing money?

[/ QUOTE ]
He 3 bet K9o against someone who raises any two.

ctv1116
12-25-2004, 12:17 PM
OK, I found the guy who you are talking about. The guy is an idiot, although he's started to fold some hands.

BradL
12-25-2004, 12:19 PM
Yet he insisted on going to showdown with it on a board that is won by any ace. I understand the logic but it backfires. While his opponent is a maniac, even a maniac can beat K9 on that board. This is a hand best not to get involved in IMO. Giving up possible small EV to not be dominated for more bets later in the hand is not criminal. By 3betting preflop with K9o he is essentially saying "Im showing down this hand against you if I get any piece of this," by capping it back his opponent is saying the same, when the flop comes JJJ his hand is now a sitting duck to a lot of hands a manaic caps with (any ace).

-Brad

sammy_g
12-25-2004, 12:28 PM
He raises 88% of his hands and bets 90% of his hands all the way. You don't think K-high wins more than its share? Villan 3-bet 65 in the other hand. I'm not going to give Villan credit for an ace until I see it. Hero got unlucky. Calling down here must be a +EV play, particularly on a JJJ board since it is so unlikely to have paired Villan.

aflaba
12-25-2004, 12:31 PM
He has just recently started to fold and check, just like ctv1116 writes.

But before, he didn't only cap with any Ace (neither does he now) He actually capped any hand as weak as 72o.

But you guys are maybe right that I would have done better in folding K9o rather than reraising it. I may be pushing for edges to far, trying to isolate to much. Maybe my bad judgement here is costing me a lot of money.

Maybe it would be better if I started playing tighter rather than looser? Getting in thrre-bet or capped pots cost a bunch, especially when I don't succed in isolating but hold a hand like K9o

aflaba
12-25-2004, 12:32 PM
Interesting point.

Hadn't thought about it that scientifically.

This post is a keeper

ctv1116
12-25-2004, 12:41 PM
In addition, it looked like if you pushed back, he'd back off, and maybe even fold some of his weakest hands. I would have just called and then waited to take a shot at him if you hit.

aflaba
12-25-2004, 12:48 PM
The fish ran out of money.

Poor guy... really
Hope he is rich.

Finally I netted a $118 profit against him
(+705, -587)
It was pure luck.
For the entire table I finished $63 ahead.

I think I should have done better.
Nest time I hope I will feel better prepared and play better.

I am not happy. I think my tilt cost me a lot today, partly at the table with the crazy player, but even more at another table I was playing at simoultaniously.

I have to start meditating or something to find my inner peace.

How do you guys think I can improve for next time I meet a player similar to this one?

aflaba
12-25-2004, 12:54 PM
You're very right here.

It's just that in the beginning of the session he wouldn't back off or fold, but just keep on raising instead. I was a little slow on picking up his change. So I guess I lost some (pretty much) value when he folded/backed off to my value bets/raises.

At least him backing of allowed me to bluff once :-)

sammy_g
12-25-2004, 01:02 PM
In the hands you posted, you played well. I might entertain arguments for folding K9o in the first hand (mainly because there is still BB to act) but I think the way you played it is +EV.

It sounds to me like your issue is the psychological one: losing to hands like 65o puts you on tilt. When that starts to happen to me, I try to remember that rarely in hold'em do you have a huge edge over anyone preflop unless you hold a big pair. You generally have smallish edges that you need to push over and over again to see profit in the long run. So losing to 65o shouldn't bother you too much. You were a favorite, but not so huge a favorite that you won't see that happen fairly often against a total loon like this guy. Just know you will win a lot of money from this guy in the long run regardless of what happens on one or two hands.

lehighguy
12-25-2004, 01:44 PM
What are you doing in hand one. You can't bluff someone that never folds. That three bet with K9o seems excessive. King high isn't exactly a strong hand.

daryn
12-25-2004, 01:50 PM
yeah. to all you guys who like that K9 3-bet just because he is a maniac, remember: you don't have to play down to the maniac's level.

sammy_g
12-25-2004, 02:02 PM
[ QUOTE ]
What are you doing in hand one. You can't bluff someone that never folds. That three bet with K9o seems excessive.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's not a bluff. It's a value bet, and it's a bet designed to shut BB out of the hand.

[ QUOTE ]
King high isn't exactly a strong hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
King high is a favorite against a random hand.

The problem is that BB might decide to play. That is why I might fold there.

sammy_g
12-25-2004, 02:08 PM
[ QUOTE ]
yeah. to all you guys who like that K9 3-bet just because he is a maniac, remember: you don't have to play down to the maniac's level.

[/ QUOTE ]
I fold K9o against a maniac, but this guy is more than a maniac. He's a total loon. He plays any two cards like he has AA. I play K9o if I think I can get it heads-up.

lehighguy
12-25-2004, 03:48 PM
Maniacs can be very unpredicable. Remember, they sometimes hit thier hand too and you won't have any way to tell. If you had an ace here I think it would be different story.

Just play solid poker. If you keep playing solid you will beat him wihtout things getting messy.

sammy_g
12-25-2004, 04:38 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Maniacs can be very unpredicable. Remember, they sometimes hit thier hand too and you won't have any way to tell.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sure, which is why you don't get in a raising war with K-high, but just call down, particularly on a JJJ board. He's going to be betting whether he hits or not, and most of the time he misses. Even if you know Villan has an ace in hand one, you have plenty of odds to draw to a boat. I agree that the 3 bet before the flop in that hand is debateable, but folding after the flop there (as others haved hinted at) is horrible.

I personally think that playing against maniacs heads-up is easy. You just check/call, check/call, check/call and let them bluff into you when you have a showdown hand. You will win more than your share. Against this opponent, K9o is a showdown hand. Of course, with other players in the pot it becomes more complicated.

[ QUOTE ]
If you had an ace here I think it would be different story.

[/ QUOTE ]
As was pointed out earlier, K9o is a 57-43 favorite against two random cards. Against a typical maniac, I agree that folding is fine. The way Villan has been described, he literally can have any two cards.

You are a favorite over a random hand. Villan will bet any hand to the river. Again, the only thing that gives me pause is the BB, who might wake up with a big hand.

[ QUOTE ]
Just play solid poker. If you keep playing solid you will beat him wihtout things getting messy.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sure, just playing solid will make you a winner. I am interested in maximizing EV, however.

lehighguy
12-25-2004, 05:01 PM
I agree with the king high call down, its the trip raise before the flop I disagree with. Yeah you want to knock out the BB but remember, if you don't hit a hand and the board is scary you'll end up haveing to fold, and you just threw an extra bet in the pot (lets say a flop of Q,8,6 are you planning to call down his bets). What are your standards for calling down?

sammy_g
12-25-2004, 05:41 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I agree with the king high call down, its the trip raise before the flop I disagree with. Yeah you want to knock out the BB but remember, if you don't hit a hand and the board is scary you'll end up haveing to fold, and you just threw an extra bet in the pot (lets say a flop of Q,8,6 are you planning to call down his bets). What are your standards for calling down?

[/ QUOTE ]
But you don't have to fold. And you tossed in an extra bet as a 57-43 favorite.

I absolutely call down on that flop. Villan bets 90% of his hands to the river. He holds two random cards, and I'm getting almost 3:1 calling down. K-high wins more often than that, and I have 6 outs even if he has an 8 or a 6. In fact, I almost never fold K-high against this opponent with these odds.

EvanJC
12-25-2004, 05:57 PM
are there really players like this at 5/10?? maybe it's time to move up after all heh.

Alobar
12-25-2004, 06:03 PM
I wouldnt have bothered to fight in hand 1, I would have folded, I dont care if he raises any 2, I still want to pick a better spot than K9o and no posistion.

hand 2 I would have played more aggresively

ctv1116
12-25-2004, 06:04 PM
I wish. You don't find these type of players very often--and if you do, you don't see them very long--for obvious reasons.

DanS
12-26-2004, 06:59 AM
[ QUOTE ]
yeah. to all you guys who like that K9 3-bet just because he is a maniac, remember: you don't have to play down to the maniac's level.

[/ QUOTE ]

Daryn's right: trying to outmaniac a maniac is the path to both the poor house and insanity, no doubt.

Dan

Michael Davis
12-26-2004, 08:59 AM
I don't agree. You really can't consider folding K9 here and if you can get it heads up against the maniac you should definitely raise out the BB. Any K is not a piece of cheese in this spot. I think you should threebet with the intention of calling the maniac down unimproved postflop unless you hit a pair in which case you start raising.

Honestly, I think Q9 is where this play becomes debatable.

And Happy Birthday.

-Michael

chezlaw
12-26-2004, 10:29 AM
I'd fold the K9 in SB even if its a small winner which it may not be if the BB has noticed what's going on.

You got a maniac to treasure. If you start beating his cheese, showing down K9, then his likely to start playing better or leave.

I think squeezing small +ev from individual hands can be -ev against a maniac.

chez

daryn
12-26-2004, 12:04 PM
</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />
I don't agree. You really can't consider folding K9 here and if you can get it heads up against the maniac you should definitely raise out the BB. Any K is not a piece of cheese in this spot. I think you should threebet with the intention of calling the maniac down unimproved postflop unless you hit a pair in which case you start raising.

Honestly, I think Q9 is where this play becomes debatable.

And Happy Birthday.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]


ty.


if i knew 100% that i could get it heads up, that's another issue. sure your hand is favored over a random, but i think the other players in the hand are what messes everything up. observant players will know what you are doing, and might be more inclined to play the hand with you, or maybe even cap it.

i definitely don't want K9 out of position 3 ways for 3 or more bets /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Peter_rus
12-26-2004, 01:14 PM
I like them both, but i would bet flop in hand 1 if i knew that pal is able to cap flop with any 2. And when raised on flop i will proceed to call down to SD. I also think that K9o is easy 3-bet against such player even taking to mention BB who awares of your moves and maniac.

aflaba
12-26-2004, 01:28 PM
Since you don't know anything about the big blind this has been a general discussion about how to play it against an unknown big blind.

I think this play is clearly wrong against a loose blind. Against a tight blind it is probably debatable.

To consider this particular case here are the stats of the big blind player:

I only have 50 hands on him
VPIP 19
FBB (4/5 at end of session)
FBBHUP (2/3 at end of session)
postflop-AF 4.7 ()
PFR 7 %

I think the play was EV+ although I guess it was pretty marginal.

My "problem" is that I wanted to squeeze money out of the maniac before he left the game. I'll avoid having this hurrying attitude in the future though. Even though this play wasen't bad I guess I sometimes go overboard.

If I got the player hup I knew I would be a favorite, even though I didn't know it would be 57-43, I also knew if I did end up having the best hand I would be able to win more from him than he would from me in the same situation.

Next time I stumble upon a maniac (right now i'm playing a 88/52) I won't play this marginal hands. I know I'm not good enough to determine which ones are EV+ and which ones are way EV-.

aflaba
12-26-2004, 01:52 PM
"It sounds to me like your issue is the psychological one: losing to hands like 65o puts you on tilt. When that starts to happen to me, I try to remember that rarely in hold'em do you have a huge edge over anyone preflop unless you hold a big pair. You generally have smallish edges that you need to push over and over again to see profit in the long run. So losing to 65o shouldn't bother you too much. You were a favorite, but not so huge a favorite that you won't see that happen fairly often against a total loon like this guy. Just know you will win a lot of money from this guy in the long run regardless of what happens on one or two hands."

These weren't the first hands where I was beat :-). I'll look through the session later today to see how I played it but I lost hands like AA, KK and QQ as well, it was terrible.

You are right though that I have psychological problems with poker. At 5/10 I have pretty severe tilting issues.

(Don't know if the rest of this post is very interesting but it is a kind of self-therapy for me to write it down)

When I tilt I usually
*Bluff when there is zero chance of it being succesful
*At shorthanded: Play additional hands
*Call most all turn raises

After 10k hands at the level I think I have had three sharp 75 BB downswings. And coming from 3/6 where I was winning very consistently this is a chock and I'm having problems coping with the emotional roller-coaster.

Unfortunatly this has led to the collaps of my emotionary roller-coaster. I has got stuck at a low point so now I feel bad no matter if I win or lose money. I'm in a bad place where I overreact to every losing session and every "bad beat". Even my winning sessions feel bad because I expect to lose. Bad.

Today I'll try to work of my remaining PP/PN bonuses. But starting from tommorrow I'll probably take a few days off poker and look through some of the sessions I've played and try to work on improving my game off-coart for a while. And work on recouping mentally.

For you guys who have read the entire post, thanks for the patianse ;-)

aflaba
12-26-2004, 01:57 PM
Do you mean that you would bet the flop for value?

Peter_rus
12-26-2004, 06:17 PM
Yes. On paired flop against any 2 K-high have more value than A-high on non-paired boards.