Asteroid flies under satellites. Big asteroid 1/60 odds to hit 2029

[wacki]

This asteroid, if it hit the earth at a 90 degree angle, would be about twice as powerfull as Hiroshima.

Astronomers spotted an asteroid this week AFTER it had flown past Earth on a course that took it so close to the planet it was below the orbits of some satellites.

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/asteroid_close_041222.html

This one will explode with a force of 1,900 Megatons of TNT.
Odds of it hitting in April 13, 2029? 1/60. Have a nice day!

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news146.html

Not to alarm people further, but April 13, 2029 is also Friday the 13th! We're doomed!!!!

I'll be on my roof with a 6 pack of beer.

[wacki]

NASA plot of the 1,900 megaton beast.

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/images/2004mn4ca.gif

[CCx]

Hmmmm, it said 1-in-300 chance in this CNN article from yesterday, but I guess they flubbed that one..

uh oh we're so screwed (http://www.cnn.com/2004/TECH/space/12/24/asteroid.ap/index.html)

if i happen to live that long, i'll be ready to go out with a bang /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[wacki]

Ya, CNN got it wrong. It was 1/233, but then NASA took more precise measurements. It then went down to 1/60. They still have more measurements to take so it could go either way.

[Michael Davis]

1/60 odds on that is pretty insane, probably worth taking measures to blow it up or something. I really know nothing about this stuff but a 1/60 shot is very scary if accurate.

-Michael

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
1/60 odds on that is pretty insane, probably worth taking measures to blow it up or something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Understatement of the year. We actually can blow up an asteroid. Right now the technology to do so is still 30 years away. I hope NASA, and Congress, gets their butts in gear.

[Duke]

[ QUOTE ]
We actually can blow up an asteroid. Right now the technology to do so is still 30 years away.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't this mean that we can't?

Also, though they aren't sure if it'll hit or not, they should have an idea where it would hit if it did. If NASA isn't going nuts about it it's probably going to hit Africa or something.

EDIT: I would assume that the velocity isn't uncertain, only the trajectory.

~D

[wacki]

When I say "we can", I meant it is theoretically possible. We can't stop an earthquake, but we can stop an asteroid.

As for NASA panicking, I highly doubt you will ever see it. When scientists make public statements it is always very conserved. You will see it get a bit more intense than this, but not by much. The impact is 25 years away, they aren't going to immediately go into panic. You will see it rise on the Torino scale, but that is it.

As for the asteroid hitting Africa, do you have any idea how much a power is in one megaton? At 1,900 megatons, it's not going to matter where it hits.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Regarding blowing it up:

When, where, how far away?

The problem is, when you blow it up too close to the Earth, there's no reduction in total mass, but you increase the number of projectiles flying at us at unpredictable vectors.

In other words, we'd better be pretty damn sure that big 1,900 megaton projectile is going to hit us before we scatter it into a bunch of random 100 megaton projectiles flying in our general direction.

Either that, or we need to be able to blow it up on its outbound path.

[wacki]

I have an article somewhere about how NASA plans on doing this. They don't actually blow up the asteroid, they simply alter it's course. Something as harmless as paint might be able to do that.


I have some really good articles on this stuff, I will try to find them. Until then, here are two that are ok.

http://unisci.com/stories/20022/0408022.htm

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2002102807_comet28.html

[dr. klopek]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem is, when you blow it up too close to the Earth, there's no reduction in total mass, but you increase the number of projectiles flying at us at unpredictable vectors.

[/ QUOTE ]

-Billy Bob Thornton, "Armageddon"

[A_C_Slater]

If it's only 2x as powerful impact as the bomb at Hiroshima then there's nothing to worry about. On a cosmic scale that is nothing. Only a very small fraction of the Earth's land mass has giant population areas. Back in about 1914 a asteroid that was about 20 atomic bombs landed in Siberia. Not one person was killed. I beleive that the ground shook throughout all of Asia.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

If it's only 2x as powerful impact as the bomb at Hiroshima then there's nothing to worry about. On a cosmic scale that is nothing.

On a cosmic scale, Earth is pretty irrelevant. However, if the thing shatters into, say 10 pieces, each will be 100x the size of either WWII bomb.

Only a very small fraction of the Earth's land mass has giant population areas.

A 150 megaton impact in 3 or 4 uninhabited places may well have some effect on the overall climate. Plus, the earth is about 2/3 water. A couple of big impacts there will certainly threaten a sizeable percentage of the populated areas. Maybe not as much as the potential collapse of that volcano in the Canaries (which is a much more real threat than this asteroid), but a real impact on life here never the less.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I was actually thinking of "Deep Impact." /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
If it's only 2x as powerful impact as the bomb at Hiroshima then there's nothing to worry about.

[/ QUOTE ]

The point I was making about that asteroid is that it had actually flown underneath satellites orbiting this earth before we even knew it existed. A large section of the sky isn't even being surveyed right now. Asteroid watching is a very neglected area right now, and the threats are very real.

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/solarsystem/asteroids_miss_020319.html
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/solarsystem/aussie_asteroid_020201-1.html

The 1,900 megaton asteroid is something to worry about.


Here is a neat little program to show effects of the asteroid on your location based on distance from ground zero.

http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects/

[Scotch78]

That's just movie mumbo-jumbo to keep the plot intact. So long as the asteroid was fragmented before it entered our atmosphere, the risk of dangerous impacts would be severely reduced, and most likely completely eliminated. Wacki can probably explain it better than me, but the fragments would burn up at an exponentially higher rate than the original asteroid. The danger of exploding it too close to the Earth is releasing radioactive dust into the upper atmosphere where it will catch global wind currents and give us all leukemia.

Scott

[wacki]

It depends on the size and makeup of the asteroid. For the really big ones, this simply isn't the case. In fact, blowing up a big asteroid:

Many of the fragments would remain on a collision course and like the blast from a shotgun; the fragments can do up to ten times as much damage as the original, intact object.

http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/technology/nudging_not_nuking_000211.html

Here is some more info:

http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/technology/non_nuclear_deflection_000211.html


I think it is comical how we can be having these close calls and yet we don't even have a telescope in the southern hemisphere watching for asteroids. It's still nothing the average citizen should be worrying about, but it would be nice to see that somebody is properly keeping an eye on this stuff. This is currently not the case.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I was under the impression that the Soviet Union detonated multiple 50-100 megaton devices in the atmosphere. Given that, I don't see how 1900 megatons is so terrible. It's not like it would wipe out humanity.

[Scotch78]

[ QUOTE ]
really big ones

[/ QUOTE ]

That means next to nothing to us common folk. Is 100m really big? 500m? 1km? About how big does an asteroid have to be to have enough mass left at impact to cause significant damage? And how much mass will an asteroid burn off passing throught he atmosphere?

Scott

[wacki]

Blowing something up almost always leaves behind significantly sized pieces. Explosives are a very poor mortar and pestle. The effects of the remaining chunks can be calculated with this program. It's a bit too complex for a simple answer.

http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects/


Here is some simulations from sandia national labs
http://www.sandia.gov/media/comethit.htm

[Danenania]

Only 1/60? Bah, we've got worse problems than that.

[Cerril]

That's pretty much what I got from it too

[ QUOTE ]
This asteroid, if it hit the earth at a 90 degree angle, would be about twice as powerfull as Hiroshima.

[/ QUOTE ]

So we're looking at a worst case of something not too bad on a global scale. Granted it would be devastating for anyone who happened to be there but chances are really good it'd smack into the water too far out to affect anyone, and even if it smacked right into LA, the people in New York wouldn't be too distraught.

Still, quite creepy.

[wacki]

Reread the post. The "2x Hiroshima" asteroid is only 15 feet across. The reason it is so powerfull is because it travels at about 17 miles per SECOND. The one that has a 1/60 chance of hitting us is about 1/2 a mile across. Hiroshima was about 20,000 tons of TNT. The big asteroid is equal to about 1,900,000,0000 tons of TNT. Do you understand?

[Cyrus]

doom

How old you gonna be in 2029 ?

Would you say it is a good year to die ?

[Scotch78]

Does that number include mass burned off in the atmosphere?

Scott

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
doom

How old you gonna be in 2029 ?

Would you say it is a good year to die ?

[/ QUOTE ]

The whole doom thing was a joke.

I'm not really worried about it, but it would be nice to know the planet will be around for any kids I might have. Asteroids are easy to find and they aren't that difficult to stop once the technology is developed. I just hope the general public starts to realize the importance of keeping a asteroid watch program. The annual support of Near-Earth Object research within NASA is currently 3.5 million dollars which isn't enough. 10 million will be more than enough to protect the entire planet. Hopefully these asteroids will make some people in Congress (and the rest of the world) understand the dangers.

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
Does that number include mass burned off in the atmosphere?

Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

The megaton number is the explosive force released when it hits the planet. The 1,900 megaton asteroid is actually a rather small asteroid at only about 1/2 a kilometer in diameter and has a mass of 8.3e+10 kg. The speed of this asteroid is 12.59 km/s. It is this speed that gives it it's power.

Meteors are burnt up in the atmosphere pretty easily. Asteroids are not. That impact predictor program I linked to will tell you how much of it will vaporize. The asteroid isn't a planet killer by any means, but it is not something you want to ignore.


If you are 200 km away from the point of impact the visible fireball will appear 6 times larger than the sun. Damage negligible in buildings of good design and construction; slight to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable damage in poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken.

This isn't a planet killer, but as you can see, it's not something you want to ignore.

[billyjex]

[ QUOTE ]
If it's only 2x as powerful impact as the bomb at Hiroshima then there's nothing to worry about. On a cosmic scale that is nothing. Only a very small fraction of the Earth's land mass has giant population areas. Back in about 1914 a asteroid that was about 20 atomic bombs landed in Siberia. Not one person was killed. I beleive that the ground shook throughout all of Asia.

[/ QUOTE ]

I saw some documentary of that asteroid. It was fairly powerful and killed alot of trees and animals within the area but it exploded before it hit the ground, reducing it's impact. It also happened in the middle of nowhere. If it landed in a city i'm sure much more damage would have been done.

[wacki]

Your thinking about the 1908 siberian asteroid hit. The two I'm talking about are recent events/discoveries that are less than a week old.

[Cyrus]

[ QUOTE ]
The whole doom thing was a joke. I'm not really worried about it, but it would be nice to know the planet will be around for any kids I might have.

[/ QUOTE ]

Carl Sagan related the joke about someone who was at the audience in one of an astronomer's lectures and asked him, because he did not hear it clearly, if he said that the end of the Earth (sun bloating, etc) would come in five billion or five million years. The astronomer said five billion. The man walked away very relieved, saying the alternative sounded too close for comfort.

[wacki]

I think I get your point. Considering that the 1,900 megaton asteroid is 20 years away, I think this is a bit different. The 2x Hiroshima asteroid was way too close for comfort, and we didn't even know about it till it passed. Also, the NEO program is so small that they only have a tiny fraction of the dangerous asteroids out there logged. 10 million dollars to watch the sky is a small price to pay IMO. The cost/benifit is not only a good one, but one astronomers around the world are lobbying to get funded.

[wacki]

Here is an article about an asteroid that buzzed us a few years ago.

In a telephone interview, Williams explained there was no way to see the asteroid until it moved out of the Sun's glare and to the opposite side of Earth in relation to the Sun -- Earth's night side.

To spot such an object earlier would require a telescope elsewhere in space, he said. Ideas have been floated to put an observatory in orbit around Mercury, where it could observe the portion of sky that is not visible to terrestrial telescopes or even to Earth-orbiting observatories like the Hubble Space Telescope.

But a telescope at Mercury, given the likely limitations to its budget and size, would not be able to see asteroids as small as 2002 EM7. It could, however, spot large asteroids that might cause global destruction.

No firm plans exist for a Mercury-orbiting telescope.

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/solarsystem/asteroids_miss_020319.html

[AngryCola]

Somewhat OT

Any progress on the space elevator?

You seem to be up on these things.

[wacki]

That is still in debate. The technology is basically here, but it will take some time for people to get used to the idea. Plus with terrorism around, I don't think it will happen anytime soon. My guess, it will happen on the moon first. The moon is rich in nuclear fuel and some say it's only a matter of time before we start mining it.

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
the technology is basically here

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the main reason it is so interesting to me. I was hoping more progress was being made...oh well.

It's a great idea. The terrorism concerns are valid, however.

[youtalkfunny]

Interesting thread.

[wacki]

It's now at 1/45.

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ip?2.2e-02

[daryn]

oh man, that's like a 1-outer on the river.

[dtbog]

[ QUOTE ]
oh man, that's like a 1-outer on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Heheh. It sure is.

What I don't understand is how they can't tell me whether or not it's going to snow in the next 24 hours, but they're telling us the likelihood of this event 20+ years down the line.

....it seems that they can't really be sure enough to be updating the chance from 1/60 to 1/45, given that they can't perfectly model the conditions in outer space for the next 20 years to track how it's going to move.... right?

-DB

[wacki]

Weather is dynamic and constantly changes. It takes supercomputers to analyze. The orbits of planets/asteroids requires a calculator and a really good telescope/good measurements.

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/gif/mea-orbit-big.gif

[MelchyBeau]

That'd be one pretty bad beat.

Melch

[Cyrus]

[ QUOTE ]
The terrorism concerns are valid, however.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think the terrorists are controlling the asteroid ?

<font color="white"> . </font>

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]

Do you think the terrorists are controlling the asteroid ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh!?!?

Wacki and I were discussing the space elevator.

[Stu Pidasso]

[ QUOTE ]
Granted it would be devastating for anyone who happened to be there but chances are really good it'd smack into the water too far out to affect anyone, and even if it smacked right into LA, the people in New York wouldn't be too distraught.

[/ QUOTE ]

The ocean is the last place where you want it to hit.

Stu

[Cyrus]

[ QUOTE ]
Wacki and I were discussing the space elevator.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know.

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
I know.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see...

Well congratulations, you have sucessfully confused me. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

To answer your original question, I do not believe terrorists are controlling the asteroid.

[Cyrus]

[ QUOTE ]
I do not believe terrorists are controlling the asteroid.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a momentous break-through.

<font color="white"> . </font>

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
That's a momentous break-through.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, you asked. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

<font color="white">.</font>

[EliteNinja]

Uh, guys....

it's now 1 in 37...
I don't like bad beats....

In the longrun, we'll lose if we get hit by this one!

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
it's now 1 in 37...

[/ QUOTE ]

Where did you read this?

[wacki]

Go here:

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html

look in the chart where it says impact probability

and click on the number, it will take you to:

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ip?2.7e-02


Yikes!!!!

[ddollevoet]

Wacki:

You are failing to see the bright side of a surface impact.

The debris that would spewed into our atmosphere would all but eliminate any global warming problems that we may or may not be experiencing...

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
Wacki:

You are failing to see the bright side of a surface impact.

The debris that would spewed into our atmosphere would all but eliminate any global warming problems that we may or may not be experiencing...

[/ QUOTE ]

Awesome!!!

Up till now, I've been looking at it like it's going to be the greatest fireworks show on earth. I think it will be kind of cool to watch. Hence the 6 pack on the roof comment. (Yes, I know, I am a sick bastard.)

[Gronk]

Date: 2029-04-13 -- Torino Scale: 4
Date: 2030-04-13 -- Torino Scale: 1

Good lord it's going to hit us twice. This thing is tenacious!

[sfer]

This makes me think of Patty and Selma stamping out their presumed last smokes on the hilltop with the rest of Springfield. "Hmm. We beat cancer."

[TimM]

As it gets closer and closer, they will be able to figure out exactly where it will hit. Maybe it will land on France, and then we can choose to sit back and do nothing. Or maybe we can see how much they'd be willing to pay to get us to deflect this thing for them.

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
As it gets closer and closer, they will be able to figure out exactly where it will hit. Maybe it will land on France, and then we can choose to sit back and do nothing. Or maybe we can see how much they'd be willing to pay to get us to deflect this thing for them.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol... Me like TimM /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Nice avatar btw, who is that pic of?

[EliteNinja]

[ QUOTE ]
Wacki:

You are failing to see the bright side of a surface impact.

The debris that would spewed into our atmosphere would all but eliminate any global warming problems that we may or may not be experiencing...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, actually it could cool the earth a bit with the dustcloud in the air and all. Blow up a city to save the earth.

[GuyOnTilt]

I confess I know pretty much next to nothing on this topic, but isn't global warming (if it isn't just a point in a natural cycle of our planet) being caused primarily, or at least partially, by heat reflecting off of particles that we've put in our atmosphere in the form of CO2 et al? Wouldn't a dust cloud warm our planet? Again, I have no clue on this topic.

GoT

[SomethingClever]

No, too much crap in the atmosphere will cause an ice age.

The term "nuclear winter" refers to when so many nukes have been detonated that the atmosphere doesn't let enough light and heat in, and we have global cooling.

Same deal with an asteroid impact, I believe.

I'm a little freaked out.

[GuyOnTilt]

Ah okay. I just found a website on it. Makes sense now. Freaky stuff.

GoT

[wacki]

Correct. Asteroids will put up a bunch of dust into the atmosphere and block out the light. There is tons of evidence for this happening in the past. This is how all of the dinosaurs died.

Global warming is rather complex. It is caused by C02 and methane trapping heat in. As the heat gets trapped in the icecaps melt and the ocean rises. There are many who think the thermohaline belt (ocean conveyer belt) will then fail and cause temperate climate areas like Europe to freeze over. Europe ends up going into an ice age. Since Europe is now covered with ice, Europe turns into a mirror and starts reflecting all of the sunlight back into space....
Then a whole new mess of problems begin.

National Geographic did a story on this a few months back, I highly recommend it. It's a great introduction into global warming.

[wacki]

It's official. It's going to miss us. 1/54,000 chance of hitting. It's still going to be very close though.

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/images/2004mn4can.gif

[TimM]

[ QUOTE ]
It's official. It's going to miss us. 1/54,000 chance of hitting. It's still going to be very close though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn, I was already trying to figure out how to make the most of my last 25 years on earth. Now I can go back to slacking.

BTW: http://www.allposters.com/gallery.asp?aid=162077&amp;item=333735

Link fixed...

[wacki]

Link don't work... I just see the main page of some poster website.

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
Damn, I was already trying to figure out how to make the most of my last 25 years on earth. Now I can go back to slacking.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is still plenty of hope. We are only watching a tiny fraction of the sky. That is the reason I posted the 2x Hiroshima asteroid. We didn't even notice it until it passed. And it flew under our satellites!

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
If NASA isn't going nuts....

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think this qualifies?

http://www.b612foundation.org/

Look at the main page, it says We need to act now... and you can help.. They are pleading to the general public.

Check this out:
http://www.b612foundation.org/about/welcome.html
For this reason the B612 Foundation, recognizing that national governments feel (to the extent that they have considered the matter) that they are not in a position to spend public money on mitigation, are taking the initiative now to begin this process with the use of private funds. We believe that there are adequate numbers of intelligent and concerned people to support the critical initial planning work that needs to be done to eventually reach an operational system to deflect incoming NEAs.

Our conviction is that there is nothing more powerful to convince the public that this audacious challenge can be met than to actually do it.

It's kind of sad when the best and the brightest of us aren't listened to. Situations like these make me wish I went into B-school.


Participants:

William Bottke Southwest Research Institute
Dennis Byrnes NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Franklin Chang NASA/Johnson Space Center
Clark Chapman Southwest Research Institute
Tony Dobrovolskis NASA/Ames Research Center
Dan Durda Southwest Research Institute
John Grunsfeld NASA/Johnson Space Center
Piet Hut Institute for Advanced Studies
Don Korycansky University of California Santa Cruz
Stanley Love NASA/Johnson Space Center
Ed Lu NASA/Johnson Space Center
Andrew Petro NASA/Johnson Space Center
Dan Mazanek NASA/Ames Research Center
Bill Merline Southwest Research Institute
David Morrison NASA/Ames Research Center
David Poston Los Alamos National Laboratory
Dan Scheeres University of Michigan
Rusty Schweickart Independent
Jared Squire NASA/Johnson Space Center
Bobby Williams NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory

[SomethingClever]

Their slogan cracks me up.

B612
"Our goal is to significantly alter the orbit of an asteroid in a controlled manner by 2015"

When they accomplish it, I hope they change it to:

B612
"Significantly altering the orbit of asteroids in a controlled manner since 2015."

[randomchamp]

Well they know a Tsunami comes every 40 years and kills 50,000 people - look how prepared we were for that........

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
Well they know a Tsunami comes every 40 years and kills 50,000 people - look how prepared we were for that........

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point.