Back on paradise

I've been playing on paradise again lately (we had a baby in June so I haven't been able to make it to the casino much).


One thing I've noticed is that it seems more players will discuss hands and criticize others than before. Maybe it's random luck but I'm always sitting at tables with two or three players who openly discuss the mistakes make by their opponents in each hand and sometimes even get abusive about it.

"Did you buy all those chips, cause you play awful!". Stuff like that.


It literally makes me cringe and I usually go to another table, but they're EVERYWHERE! It makes me sick. Has anyone else noticed that's it's gotten worse in the past several months?


Also, the bad beat phenomenon is very very real. There is just something about Paradise. It's amazing. I am CERTAIN that the majority of the players who complain on this forum about being unable to overcome the deluge of bad beats are telling the truth. I personally seem to only be able to tread water. Every time I start to build up, a series of horrific bad beats will bring me back down. I bounce up and down $100 or so. Right now, it's DOWN $100.


I don't know what to make of it, but all I know is that it's true, it really happens. No matter what you say about someone's leaks, now matter how much you speculate about other reasons for their losses, if they're constantly getting a lot of money into the pot with the best hand only to get rivered, they are NOT losing because of their bad play, period. It's very simple.


Lastly, the players at the 3-6 and 2-4 levels are terrible! I've read things about how these game have gotten tougher but couldn't disagree more. I see nothing but mistakes constantly. These players are as bad or worse as any 3-6 or 6-12 table I've sat in here in Northern california. So don't believe the hype, the games are good... if you can overcome the bad beat curse.


natedogg

I, too, see quite a bit of player abuse in the chat box on Paradise. It can be annoying and tiresome but it almost always seems to be the result of player frustration.

In regards to bad beats what I find is that many players at the lower levels will see any flop at any cost with any two suited cards. These players will occassionally catch the flush or sometimes catch 2 pair when the board looks ragged. In the log that I keep on regular players I make notes of these habits.

I also try to play in games where 30% or less see the flop. It seems that less of this happens in these games.

I can't believe my ears!


It's sort of funny, but I've played about dozen short sessions at Paradise since last February, and I didn't see anything too unusual. It seems to me that they have definitely toned down since the good old rock'um sock'em days.


Tom D

If you want less players seeing the flop, just move up in limits. The high limits have 20-25% player seeing the flop sometimes. You'll also win more, since you're making $20 and $40 bets.


Personally, I like games with more players seeing the flop. Yes there will be more bad beats, but if you can't control your emotions and play through them, and also still play tight, you have a huge leak you need to work on.


- Tony

Yes! I agree with all points.


There is a lot of needling to the point of...well...despicable. I try not to let it bother me. Just be reassured that anyone who produces such negativity is probably lacking in their game and, if you are good enough, you can punish their bad behavior by taking their money. If it is directed towards you, do what Mom always said... just ignore them.


The bad beats...well I've questioned it too, but no one has produced hard evidence that it is "by design". I think it is a combination of speed and personal environment. i.e. you, at home, on a computer, not at the the casino. You are distracted and often loose focus. Since reading some recent commentary about the idea of concentration and focus at the web-tables, I have found fundamental flaws in my ability to read hands due to distractions all around me. My reading skills have greatly improved since.


-AMD

I too have now returned to the glory of Paradise Poker! I too have been getting creamed by what seems to be a conspiracy to inflict emotional distress on my person. I know its counterproductove to criticize what one percieves as bad play- but after getting beat in 3 out of 4 hands by a 2, 3 and then 4 outer, it's hard to stay quiet. Especially when this phenomena occurs regularly within such a short time period.

I don't know what it is specifically, but Paradise magnifies the bad beat misery. The nonsensical plays that beat you become predictable- it gets to the point where I know when I flop the nuts str8, even though I bet it as much as I concievably can, the guy with that 9 of clubs is going to stick around to make the runner runner flush heads up. Its good in the long run that people do this- and I'm not saying I don't catch two-outers, because I catch them, and I like catching them, but when it happens in what seems like a rapid-fire blitzkrieg of bad-beats, it drives me crazy.


People can say what they want about playing tight, yada yada yada- but it doesn't matter sometimes. Almost all the hands that create this misery are AA, KK, QQ, AK etc. As I write this, I just had AA drawn out by 10-7os when the guy flopped middle pair and called to the river after calling a pre-flop raise. It was the third hand I'd played in 45 minutes. I'm going to start folding good hands and just play suited trash.

Like I said- just play suited trash and get there.

Shortly after my AA defeat, I have A6h in the BB. Button raises with a very short stack. 4 players, including me see the flop. Flop is 335 with one heart. Some demon gets in my head and tells me to checkraise- as I have yet to attempt the obligatory checkraise-bluff-from-the-big-blind-when-the-flop-is-ragged. (This must be done once a session.) Low and behold, I slow the button down and he checks and calls to the river in horror as I make runner- runner sixes for sixes full of threes.

Then I type into the chat box: disgusting.....

And I know it was. Hand History: He had KK.


No more tight play for me! Idiocy will be my battle cry!

I dont play 2/4 and 3/6 anymore (mostly 5/10-10/20), but I think the toughness of the games depends which time you're on. I'm Dutch, and when I play in the midday, there're most times only 2-3 games, with players per flop constantly between 20 and 30 (even in 3/6 games). Since I dont monitor these games anymore, it could be that postflop they are truly terrible, but I dont think so. When I'm on when America gets online, there are lots of games, and a lot looser.


Regards

You all have tilt problems re: paradise. If you believe that bad beats are going to come more frequently, then you see a couple bad beats, it reinforces your belief, then you get depressed, convinced that every good hand oyu have is going to be outdrawn. I do that too when I've had a bad stretch, so all you need to do is tighten up for a bit, win a couple hands, relax and remember it's not a conspiracy, then you can get back to your normal game. If you can't let go of this idea that somehow the site is unfair, you really shouldn't play there, because it will adversely affect your game. The luck really does even out, and the only that remains is skill.

You know so much. Thanks for clarifying my tilt problem.


Now I see! If I just don't believe that losing on the river 12 times in a row will cost me money, then it won't!


natedogg

Maybe a good mantra would help, like repeating “Paradise isn’t rigged, Paradise isn’t rigged, Paradise isn’t rigged”, when things go poorly.


I think it’s time you and Delores were put out to pasture with Miles Davis and Wardy. You’re not doing any better than they did.


Tom D

That very well could be the case.

By letting yourself tilt a bit when you lose several times in a row on the river then you almost definitely are costing yourself money.

If on the other hand you realize that these things happen, then you can stop it from costing you money by keeping yourself in control.


I by no means claim to always keep in control. Sometimes I start to loose it. I work on this as part of my learning experience and sometimes I have to quit the game to keep my self in check.


Don't let yourself believe those 12 loses hurt you. If you played well then they didn't hurt you in the long run, they are just part of the business.


When you play poker correctly and make +EV plays you make money even when you lose. It just stings a bit to make it that way.

are the master of logical arguments and rational thought

Dear God! I can't believe my eyes. Natedogg, I regarded you as one of the pillars of the anti-conspiracy movement and it's fight for truth and justice on this forum. What the hell is this all about? I'm just recovering from a 200+ BB downswing but at no time during that downswing did I seriously feel like I was being cheated. At times I may have screamed at the monitor GOD THATS SO RIGGED but as soon as my rational mind regained control, I knew what was going on. I was experiencing one of the wilder fluctuations in the statistics of poker.


Tom D wrote:


It's sort of funny, but I've played about dozen short sessions at Paradise since last February, and I didn't see anything too unusual. It seems to me that they have definitely toned down since the good old rock'um sock'em days.


A dozen short sessions?!? If you think that what you saw during a dozen short sessions is of ANY RELEVANCE at all, then the variance that is possible in poker is beyond your comprehension.


Natedogg, all I can say is, maybe if after a long amount of playtime on PP you haven't won, your game isn't as good as you think. (No replies blaming it on the naughty river cards, either. Psychologists like to call this an "external locus of control", which describes a personality type that considers most events as having causes external to them. All losing poker players either don't care about the money or are of this personality type).


Anyway, hope you manage to convince yourself PP is beatable. I'm only a PP plant on this forum anyway, so what would I know.


Chris

I know, I know. It sounded like I was espousing the "rigged" theory but I didn't. I just said the beats are so bad it makes you wonder. It DOES feel different from other games I've played. I don't know what that means, but it doesn't feel the same. It feels wrong. The two and three outers are non-stop.


But let me clarify, I'm NOT a proponent of any of the Paradise conspiracies. I've also never been 100% convinced everything is up and up. There's always the possibility.


But this is what I REALLY want to address:




Natedogg, all I can say is, maybe if after a long amount of playtime on PP you haven't won, your game isn't as good as you think. (No replies blaming it on the naughty river cards, either. Psychologists like to call this an "external locus of control", which describes a personality type that considers most events as having causes external to them. All losing poker players either don't care about the money or are of this personality type).




Personally, I've won slightly, but regardless, that statement is such bullshit. It takes an almost religious faith in the even distribution of cards to agree with this stuff. We are constantly told that the reason limit hold'em games are good is because the suckers can last for a long time without going broke since their mistakes don't cost them so much. Variance can allow for an otherwise bad player to win for a very long time.


WHY is it so hard to believe the opposite? It's amazing to me how so many learned players assert that losing means playing bad, period. These are the same ones who claim the variance is unimaginably high. In fact, you stated as much in the SAME post!


The fact is, there are many many theoretically winning players who collectively have lost a fortune on paradise poker.


Yes, it's true that in theory, you will eventually win if you're playing well, and I do believe that. But if you lose $4500 playing 3-6 by getting rivered every hand, that "THEORY" doesn't do you much good, does it?


And no replies blaming those kinds of losses on the naughty tilt either. Don't tell me it's not possible to lose 36 racks while playing a winning game. You KNOW it's possible. When that happens to you, "theory" is bullshit. You got screwed.


natedogg

After reviewing that response I realized it may have sounded pretty rude and angry. That was not the intent at all, so don't take it that way.


Just stating opinions that came across rather forcefully is all.


natedogg

Of course it's possible to lose gigantic amounts of money. In fact, it's possible that I will never win another pot from now until the day I die, no matter how much I play.


I would consider, though, that if you lose more than, say, 500 big bets on Paradise, then you are not a winning player. The odds of this happening by chance are very very small. So while of course it's "possible" than a winning player could lose $4500 playing 3/6, I won't accept this theory as an answer when there's a much more prosaic theory available (ie that that player's game is not as good as they think).


I'm no stranger to massive downswings on PP. The problem is that the amount of actual loss is much smaller. It's easy to blame a 200 BB downswing for losses over an extended period.


To sum up, I'd rather figure that a player who has lost 500 BB on Paradise is a member of the losing majority of poker players, rather than a member of the infinitesimal minority who are so incredibly unlucky they lose this amount of money through chance. Protestations of good play aren't much use because a lot of people think good is synonomous with preflop tightness and running every AA to the river.


Chris

***"A dozen short sessions?!? If you think that what you saw during a dozen short sessions is of ANY RELEVANCE at all, then the variance that is possible in poker is beyond your comprehension."***


I think you're confusing relevance with absolute proof. I didn't say my twelve short sessions prove Paradise is now offering a square deal. That would be ridiculous.


Tom D

ChrisVWH:


If it wasn't for the fact that losing players still believe they were winning players, or had a possiblity of being a winning player, a lot of the losing players would stop playing.


Which would be bad for winning players. Anyways, on another note, there are statistical ways to calculate IF you are a winning player or not, to a certain degree of confidence.


For example, if you have a 99.850% chance of being a winning player, I'd say you are a winning player. If you have a .150% chance of being a winning player, I'd say you are probably a losing player.


All this can be calculated by tracking sessions. How long each session was, and how your results in that session.


I'm currently working on a way to calculate the % chance you are a winning player or not, via statistical methods. I have made a way to calculate standard deviation and session data, and win rates, plus confidence ranges for your win rate, currently with PokerStat.


My win rate is slightly less than 1 BB an hour currently. /images/smile.gif In the last two months, my win rate is 1.4 BB an hour! This is at low limits, and I feel I can DEFINITELY increase my win rate to 2+ BB an hour. A great player should be able to win at 3+ BB an hour at low limits, I feel, easily.


What I'm saying is, I think your theory that losing players may in fact be losing players is probably true.


- Tony

Absolute proof would require an incredible amount more data. Relevance just requires several times as much data.


What concerns me is: if you think Paradise has "toned down" on the basis of a few sessions, how did you acquire the opinion that they were rigged in the first place?


Chris

Let's say that it had rained every minute of every hour of every day for more than a year, and then it stopped for twelve days in a row. Would you notice?


I'm not saying my not seeing anything abnormal means anything. It could be just a statistical aberration, or it could be someone accidently (or intentionally) switched the cheat button to off. What does it matter?


However, here's a coincidence you may want to ridicule: Starting in February, I had played and observed several sessions in a row that seemed normal. That had never happened before. Then, I read the post by Wake up Call that said Paradise had been working on making the cheating less noticeable. And then I played and observed more sessions that all appeared normal to me. Isn't that funny?


My original point is pretty simple. If someone were to ask me if Paradise had been rigging the games since February, I would have to answer that I don't know.


Tom D

Winning players go through massive losing streaks in limit poker.

I've gone through them in live low-limit games, and Paradise low-limit games. As long as people get pot odds to make marginal plays, the advantage a tight/agressive/deceptive player with good hand reading skills has is reduced significantly. Internet poker is basically about picking good games, having plenty of bankroll, and realizing when you are in the midst of one of these horrible runs, and what to do about it. I have been taking a beating on Paradise now for many many hours, while winning in No-Limit live games and low-limit livegames, as well as on CCC Poker. Paradise can be safe money when you aren't running horrible- eventually, Natedogg will be winning consistently again, and so will I. I don't know about 500 big bets, but losing 100-200 big bets is bad enough to me, and I consider it an outrage- especially when it happens like its been happening lately. Basically, I attribute any big losses on Paradise to 2 factors:

1. I am on tilt and make very stupid and costly plays (that would probably work if I was playing against better players in a pot/no-limit game)

2. I am running very bad

Usually, its number 2 first, then a little of number 1, and then back to number 2.

I have been on big losing streaks, at least, they are big in my opinion because I am generally losing to ridiculous plays/players, but these end eventually, and then the money starts to seem easy again. I start to think- how could I have ever lost in this game? Then, a few days/weeks/months later- the evil returns, and I start to question my play, just as people will call into question your play on this site if you report a losing streak. The point is, this is poker, and while it sucks to get beat on by less than stellar plays like bottom pair suckouts, 2 outers, 3 outers, etc., when it starts going your way, if you truly are a winning player, the money will come back to you and then some.


At least, this is what I've been telling myself the past two months...

lol

gl to you and your family...gl