200SNG Bubble Hand

[Chief911]

This was an interesting hand that just happened. I was on the bubble. The blinds could go through me and I'd still be ahead of the other small stack who was going to be allin in the blinds next time they hit. So I could possibly fold into the $$, but would be essentially surrendering for 3rd.

I pickup this hand to a miniraise. I can call the raise and still have 215, enough to post my SB next hand, and then watch the other small stack have to go allin in his blind. Do you call here and see the flop?

I figured I'd call the preflop bet, and only call a bet after the flop if a K hit.

You like?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t665)
Hero (t1015)
UTG (t1520)
Button (t6800)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t800</font>, Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls t400.

Flop: (t1800) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t215 (All-In)</font>, UTG calls t215.

Turn: (t2230) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t2230) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t2230

[citanul]

I really don't like.

Chances you're going to actually like a flop that comes, low. But you know that.

Are the blinds about to go up? Because if they're not, the other guy has 6xx chips, which is enough to pay the bb, and fold his sb, if it isn't passed to him. Clearly, if he's going to be heads up with you from the blinds, he must fold, but if he can let you have to decide if you are going to call or try to again outwait him, this is a problem.

My big problem with trying to outwait a small stack in this type of circumstance is that well, if he wins a hand, he's ahead of you, and likely second stack. And it's not like that's an entirely unlikely occurrence.

Now, all that said, I might have decided to run it out there with K7s, just because I hate playing for 3rd. It seems like this play is most likely to be the play for 3rd play, especially with everyone else short as well, it seems like if you "sneak" into the money, you have a much higher than usual chance to move up to 2nd, no?

Meh. I just really don't like this play.

citanul

[Chief911]

Citanul,

Remember party converted hands show stacks before the blinds are posted, leaving him with just over a BB, and me with 615 (I think).

But I wanted to clarify the blind/stack sizes.

Nick
I haven't decided whether I like it or not. But

[partygirluk]

Nick I don't like this.

i) You are only going to hit your King 1/6 times.
ii) You can easily hit your King and lose
iii) If you play this way you should be calling with a flush draw, a straight draw, and quite possibly a seven.
iv) I think you have left out important information such as the ante level.
v) If you do fold when you don't hit a King, then 5/6 times you will be down to 15 chips I think. Even if there is no ante, all you need is for the other short stack to get lucky once and you are toast.

[Jason Strasser]

Nick,

This hand is horrible.

First of all... What hands is the button raising with? He should be raising with a ton of them. So I can not think of a worse line then calling and then folding on any flop you dont like. There are so many things wrong with that thinking... Namely you may fold when you are ahead, or you may fold when you will catch up and have the correct odds to chase. A plan that involves folding for 200 more in a pot slightly smaller than 2k is bad. You should really avoid putting your spot there. If you hate playing for third, shove your chips in. I personally would not do that... I fold here. I fold not because I'm playing for third, I fold because it makes me the most money. The fold is kinda with my gut... but I'm fairly certain someone could use the ICM or some other model to show you that a fold is higher EV. Regardless, folding and raising all in are soooo much better options than calling and folding to a king. Its not close.

-Jason

[citanul]

Thanks for clarifying that, I had no idea! That makes things a little different, but I still don't like the hand. /images/graemlins/smile.gif I think the other people's responses, particularly Jason's reflect my thinking on the hand, so I won't repeat. Just wanted to thank you for informing me of that fact about the hand histories.

citanul

[DonButtons]

You got to fold here.

As mentioned early, K7s is already a blah blah EV hand, and in this bubble situtation, with a short stack behind you, its very -EV to call here. Sometimes playing for third is all you can do in some situtations, and 400 is better than 0. Hope you won.

[Chief911]

Did no one read my initial post? Even if I see a flop with this hand, and I'm getting better than 4:1 to call, I still survive the SB, and the other small stack will be set allin by the blinds before I have them come through me again. If he lasts through that by willing his allin, I'm then set allin by the blinds, regardless of whether or not I play this hand.

I have essentially 6 outs. But considering that I'm set allin on the next blinds, why not see what flops here?

I think you guys are getting too tied up that its K7. Think about the situation?

Nick

[betgo]

I would push because you are getting 2-1 pot odds and you figure have as good a hand as the button, who would probably raise with practically anything against the two short stacks.

If you fold, you will have 600 chips and the SB 400. If you fold in the SB next hand, you will have 400. You are not assured of folding into the money.

Is this a joke about folding if a king didn't flop, or are you the dead money in the $200s? You need to either fold preflop or play the hand all the way. Without a king on the flop, you could very well be ahead with king high. If you fold on the flop and fold in the SB next hand, you will have 15 chips left.

[partygirluk]

Nick, you are ignoring the chances of finishing above 3rd. Check folding this flop[ gives you third at best. On 99% of flops you are going to have the odds to continue. So you have two options

i) Push
ii) Fold

[Chief911]

betgo,

Yes, I'm clearly dead money. Want to compare ROI's?

Nick

[Chief911]

pguk,

Yes and no. Playing the hand because if I fold I'm playing for 3rd at best most likely. Going all in preflop accomplishes nothing, as he's not going to fold for an extra 215. Why not see the flop when EITHER WAY if I call or fold, I still can be around for the next set of blinds to hit the small stack.

Nick

[betgo]

Your going to invest 2/3 of your remaining stack and fold the 80% of the time you don't flop a king? It doesn't matter whehter you push preflop or throw the other 215 in on the flop, you are committed. You are going to win atleast 35% of the time you don't flop a king. Just play the hand. If you win it, you have pretty sure 3rd and a good shot at 2nd.

[Chief911]

While I agree that saying I'm ONLY going to play if a K hits is incorrect, it doesnt matter THAT much whether I have 400 when the blinds hit next time, or 25. I'm still going to be allin.

Nick

[adanthar]

Well, clearly, given the circumstances calling is better than pushing. (Why? Well, you kinda want to know if the flop comes AQ9 hearts - or maybe you push on that flop and he folds - or maybe he disconnects at the right time. Whichever; it gives you a 1% chance of having to make a decision, which is better than 0% if you play well.)

I have a much bigger problem with your plan on the flop (if you only call when a K hits it's a *clear* error) and an even bigger problem with your decision to call instead of fold in the first place.

I'm open to suggestions but right now I personally think this is an obvious fold.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
While I agree that saying I'm ONLY going to play if a K hits is incorrect, it doesnt matter THAT much whether I have 400 when the blinds hit next time, or 25. I'm still going to be allin.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since the other guy may very well wind up with over 1000 chips by the time you're all in, it matters a lot.

[partygirluk]

[ QUOTE ]
While I agree that saying I'm ONLY going to play if a K hits is incorrect, it doesnt matter THAT much whether I have 400 when the blinds hit next time, or 25. I'm still going to be allin.

Nick

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes it does. Say blinds are 200/400 and you have managed to sneak into the money. You have 25 and post the BB. You win the hand. You now have a maximum of 75 chips and are all in next hand.

Now say you have 400 and post the BB. You win the hand. Now you have 800 minimum, up to 1200 chips. This is a massive difference.

[ChrisV]

Um... correct me if I'm wrong, but you can't call and then force SB allin, at least not unless the blinds are increasing. SB will have 465 left, he can post his BB and fold it, leaving him with 65 and you with 15 and both of you allin the next hand.

Fold and force SB allin.

[Jason Strasser]

[ QUOTE ]
it doesnt matter THAT much whether I have 400 when the blinds hit next time, or 25.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is completely and utterly wrong. Yes, in both cases you will be all-in... But in one case you have a very legitimate shot to come back and win the whole tournament. With 25 chips, you need a minor miracle to come back into contention.

And while I know you are a very good tournament player, it seems there is a problem with your thinking here that you should figure out.

-Jason

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
...Even if I see a flop with this hand, and I'm getting better than 4:1 to call, I still survive the SB, and the other small stack will be set allin by the blinds before I have them come through me again. If he lasts through that by willing his allin, I'm then set allin by the blinds, regardless of whether or not I play this hand.

I have essentially 6 outs. But considering that I'm set allin on the next blinds, why not see what flops here?

I think you guys are getting too tied up that its K7. Think about the situation?

[/ QUOTE ]

Regardless of whatever pot odds you're getting, etc., when you think about the dynamics of the bubble situation and who will forced all-in where, it's a pretty easy fold IMO (in hindsight, of course).

The biggest problem with calling, is that now you're the one who's going to be forced all-in if you and SB get in a "fold off" - actually you and SB will be all-in on the same hand, but SB will now have you outchipped, a huge advantage. SB has 465 and can fold his next BB (when you're UTG) leaving him with 65 chips to post all-in in the SB. You'll have only 15 chips left (after posting your SB for 200 and folding), so you'll post that all-in in the BB (the same hand SB is all-in for 65).

If a 3rd player jumps in, you'll have to beat both to not finish 4th right there. Even if the other two players fold and your "random hand" beats SB's "random hand," he's now through the blinds with 50 chips still and you and your 30 chips will be all-in in the SB and have to win another hand to not finish 4th.

If you fold your K7 here, if SB does not make a stand until he's down to 65 in the SB, you'll have 415 in the BB and if a 3rd player jumps in you can call and the only way you now finish 4th is if SB wins and the other player beats you as well. Even if SB survives, the times you beat the other player, SB will be forced all-in first again with his 195 chips (and you'll have 700 - # posted in SB)...

...that's just too big an advatage to give up for those 1/6 times you flop a King (and the other few flops that'll hit you hard enough to go all-in).

[Gramps]

And even if 3rd is the best you're gonna do, opponents do win hands they're forced all-in on, and sometimes they're lucky enough to win multiple times in a row. With 400 chips, doubling up gives you enough to not be forced all-in the next round of blinds (or only forced all-in 1 of the 2). With 25 chips, you're going to be forced all-in on your SB and BB every orbit. For a "protracted bubble situation," where you're battling another short stack, this is what sometimes makes the difference between finishing 3rd and finishing 4th.

[Chief911]

Thanks for the input all. It has definately made me rethink how I operated in this hand.

Results: Flop is KT4. I push in my meager 215, and end up doubling through. Go on to win.

Thanks again for the constructive criticism. Nice to have a place where you can post hands like this, and get input. Learning.

Nick