'Stars May Have Dealt a Billion Hands

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

But clueless players are still there.

Approaching a milestone hand last night, I'm sitting at six tables of various games and various low and micro limits hoping to get lucky and cash in on the giveaway, when this hand comes up at one table.

I limp with 66 after a couple of limpers. Flop and turn get checked around and the river makes the final board:

K /images/graemlins/club.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif

there are 3 of us left. They check to me, I bet, 1st guy calls, 2nd guy thinks forever and folds.

Gotta love it. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Mr_RC]

Too funny. I assume you bet on the off chance that one of your opponents would fold. It seems this kind of crap usually gets capped if anyone bets thus increasing the house's cut, but this time you got lucky. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

With the nuts on the board, I always bet or raise.

[benfranklin]

[ QUOTE ]
But clueless players are still there.

Approaching a milestone hand last night, I'm sitting at six tables of various games and various low and micro limits hoping to get lucky and cash in on the giveaway,

[/ QUOTE ]

I was doing the same thing, and was at an O/8 table with a couple of table coaches. They were chatting with each other, complaining about the clueless newbies at the micro limit table who didn't know proper strategy (and were sucking out on the table coaches).

One of them was also playing a SnG, and talking about how easy it was and how well he was doing. The second guy went to the SnG table to watch for a while, and then remarked that he didn't like Omaha High, and that O/8 SnGs are better. The first guy says, that's what I'm playing, high-low. The second guy says, no, you are in an Omaha High SnG. Pause, and the first guy says, "Oh, I guess I am, lol. I was wondering why all the pots were being scooped."

[axioma]

"With the nuts on the board, I always bet or raise."

this has got to be -EV.

[schroedy]

It is definitely NOT -EV at the lower limits.

And it doesn't have to be the nuts. I was giving my wife lessons one night when the final board was something like 8J88J and after the flop and turn were checked I told her to bet her 72o (in the big blind for free). She was quite worried and fretted "why?" "Just do it." Two opponents folded and she collected the three small bets. And, most importantly, felt quite smart and was delighted.

[axioma]

first off, an isolated event does not prove a general case.

seccond, a bet on the board you describe is a far better proposition than that of the original poster.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

The first guy says, that's what I'm playing, high-low. The second guy says, no, you are in an Omaha High SnG

I have to confess, a similar thing happened to me 2 weeks ago. It was a Saturday afternoon and I was playing 2/4 at Party and looking for a tournament on 'Stars. I sign up for what I thought was a $20 + 2 O/8 multi. Now I usually don't multi-table, so I'm playing the tourney real tight early while concentrating more on the ring game. The only playable hand I get during the first level is something like AQQTd. I play it strong and win a good size pot with no low possible. At one point I think I've misread a hand when I see a pot scooped, but don't think anything of it. Midway in level2, I see the same thing. Suddenly it dawns on me - this is limit Omaha High. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

After I pick my laughing ass up off the floor. I do the only thing a reasonable man can do. I exit my ring game and finish 2nd in the multi. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

this has got to be -EV.

Maybe, but not so much as to be at all significant. The only negative effect this has is possibly increasing the rake(which will not happen 100% of the time), which amounts to a fraction of a bb, which should almost completely be offset by the increase in what I win the times one player folds.

[schroedy]

In five years of playing poker, every time I have seen a player bet into an obvious "board plays" situation in a $6/$12 limit game or lower, I have seen at least one player drop. If memory serves.

Maybe the AKQJT rainbow situation is somewhat different. But surely no different than 8888A where I saw two players drop and three chopped.

In the low limits, there remain many totally clueless players as the original post asserted.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

If there's anyone who doubts that you need to make plays assuming your opponents are clueless, consider this:

On 'Stars billionth hand, two players at the table folded preflop with $50K on the line.

[oledole]

*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $29 Main pot $18.60. Side pot-1 $0.70. Side pot-2 $1.15. Side pot-3 $4.55. Side pot-4 $2.55. | Rake $1.45
Board [5h 2d Qd Ac 7c]
Seat 1: Bluewave (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: mvdgolf416 (big blind) showed [3h 3s] and won ($8.95) with a pair of Threes
Seat 3: phil steve folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: mrhappy530 showed [2h Kh] and lost with a pair of Deuces
Seat 5: thechipster mucked
Seat 7: S.N. Bigfoot mucked
Seat 8: r3vbr showed [7s 5d] and won ($18.60) with two pair, Sevens and Fives
Seat 9: Paparow (button) mucked

Wow /images/graemlins/smile.gif

"Seat 8: r3vbr showed [7s 5d] and won ($18.60) with two pair, Sevens and Fives" + some extra cash /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Rudbaeck]

[ QUOTE ]
"With the nuts on the board, I always bet or raise."

this has got to be -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not a chance. If there are three of us on the river when the board is the nuts I always bet and fully expect to see atleast one of my opponents fold. The increased rake is way offset by the morons folding.

At some point I guess it will cease, but at 5/10 it's still going strong. Though I guess I will routinely do it at 15/30 still, sure drops are more rare, but the rake is already capped at $3 on 99% of the hands going to the river.

[joedot]

[ QUOTE ]
this has got to be -EV.

In addition to the huge equity gained when newbies or otherwise clueless players fold here, there is also the possiblity that someone will misclick and hit the fold button. Don't discount this, because it happens often enough to make a huge difference. I don't think this is -EV at all, and even if you contribute an extra .25 in rake, big flippin deal.

[knsmith85]

[ QUOTE ]
"With the nuts on the board, I always bet or raise."

this has got to be -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you say the rake goes up by .05*BB for this bet (which is more than it actually does), in a two-way pot you only need someone to fold 1 out of 20 times, and in a three-way pot someone to fold 1 out of 7 times to make this a worthwhile play.

[Cyrus]

[ QUOTE ]
"With the nuts on the board, I always bet or raise."

This has got to be -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Discounting the rake (i.e. assuming that the max level of rake has already been reached) and the time factor (i.e. assuming that the time being "lost" delaying the resolution of an obviously split pot does not negatively affect our hero's hourly expectation), every additional bet when the board is the nuts carries a neutral-to-slightly-positive EV.
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