Counting hidden outs in 20 seconds [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

View Full Version : Counting hidden outs in 20 seconds

littlejohn

12-24-2004, 03:42 AM

In the previous hand, BB checkraised the preflop raiser on the turn with pocket nines on a board with AK (it was me and I took a nice pot) - so this is why I even bothered to try and count my outs here. I couldn't get it done fast enough to figure a call was right - board was too coordinated and I had UTG+1 behind me still (although he was short stacked) - plus the pot seemed small. Can anyone else count them in 20 seconds? And was the fold right in your opinion?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP3 folds, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, BB 3-bets, Hero folds, UTG+1 calls $3 (All-In).

River: (10.75 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: 10.75 BB
Main Pot: 10.50 BB, between BB and UTG+1.
Pot 2: 0.25 BB, returned to BB.

Yobz

12-24-2004, 04:22 AM

If you think you are outkicked then you have few outs: If one of them has AJ then you have 4Q and 4K and 2T as backup, 10 outs...but you cant be sure they dont have AQ (6outs) or AK (2 T outs) and you cant be sure they dont have TT or AT or 99 in which case you need the A (except the TT) and an out or 2. Overall, you folded getting 5:1 odds and closing the action. Are you good here 1 in 5 times? With your read on BB I might consider a call down....I wanna know what others think

Nick C

12-24-2004, 04:34 AM

Versus a nearly all-in UTG+1 and a BB who has likes to checkraise bluff (maybe even against a nearly all-in player who won't fold), I think you can call down. 3 BB's is a lot to spend though, when there's a good chance you're behind (and you're possibly drawing dead) and also a good chance you'll end up chopping even if you are ahead on the turn (maybe one of your opponents has hidden outs against you). So I think folding is fine, and I also think it's a much better default response (than calling) to a raise and a check/3-bet in this situation.

runa

12-24-2004, 03:05 PM

I think you're likely up against a slowplayed T enough here to fold. Its going to cost you 3BB to find out, and you're either drawing dead or have 9 hidden outs to only half the pot (if you aren't already out-kicked). Estimate that it costs you 3BB and the pot at that point would be 12BB, but you're only getting half, so you're really getting about 7:3 which isn't enough. I have to say fold.

StellarWind

12-24-2004, 07:01 PM

You don't need to count hidden outs at the table. You just need to be familiar with the general possibilities that exist in common situations. Exact computations aren't possible when you don't know exactly how likely you are to be behind or exactly what hand you need to beat. Small errors in computing outs and probabilities are also unimportant because they lead to small EV mistakes.

Here you have only the two ace-outs versus a ten. Against twos-full you have an additional two hidden ten-outs.

That you are facing a better ace is unlikely in an unraised pot. Your decent kicker is still playing and the hidden outs factor is clearly in favor of your opponents, who are probably the ones outkicked if it comes down to ace versus ace.

The net effect of hidden outs in this hand should be to tip you to folding if the decision seems close. That's all you need to know.

Actually this looks like an easy fold. It's very dangerous to fight two opponents who represent strong hands because the odds are they aren't both making it up. This principle applies doubly to this hand:

1. I'm scared that both BB and UTG+1 are representing better hands than mine.

2. I'm scared that BB isn't afraid to fight two strong-sounding opponents. He knows he has to show this hand down to win.