Learn from my mistake

[Reef]

Here's the scenario- you have K's in middle. A lag pf raises early, you 3 bet, and a semi-tight decent late position cold caps... Whenever a Q flops, you are going to want to bet/fold or check/fold this flop most of the time.

Do you see why? and it's not even close

[BusterStacks]

I see what your saying about the range of hands a tight player will cap with but check/folding is not an option.

[bear187]

I'm new to the game but isn't AQ a strong possibility? Suited even.

[dealer_toe]

I don't think a Tight Aggro player cold caps w/ AQs. AA or QQ are possablities, but it also depends on your table image. If he thinks you're loose, he'll cap it with AA-AQs, but if you also look tight...watch out for AA-QQ.

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think a Tight Aggro player cold caps w/ AQs. AA or QQ are possablities, but it also depends on your table image. If he thinks you're loose, he'll cap it with AA-AQs, but if you also look tight...watch out for AA-QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, I have a tight image

[emonrad87]

I agree that you could be in deep trouble here. But you simply cannot check/fold. You have an overpair for Christ's sake! Find out on the flop. And if he DOES have a set of Queens, you have great implied odds if that king comes...

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that you could be in deep trouble here. But you simply cannot check/fold. You have an overpair for Christ's sake! Find out on the flop. And if he DOES have a set of Queens, you have great implied odds if that king comes...

[/ QUOTE ]

I bet/fold. But I don't like being suckered in for a bet on the flop and turn. Check/folding on the turn is very wrong if you get called on the flop. But betting out may only lose yourself a big bet.

any help is greatly appreciated

[goofball]

if you routinely fold KK in that spot i have some real estate on the moon you might be interested in

[Patfresh]

Implicit play characteristics of hand held (EX: plays well against multi-person field!) in regards to its respective merits or failings, natural contamination of board, assumed contamination of "dominated" pockets, mathematical streamlining of the governing factors of chance or luck, acts of so-called "pure" strategy, and more likely, Devaluation of ostensibly strong opening cards versus "respected" action from either preceding or following players.

-The pursuit of an ever-greater grasp of your own faculties is a quiet but rewarding piece of the poker lifestyle. Use your extensive freedom and time to become initiated into even the most arcane expanses of the game that you are lucky enough to play as a means of financial support. Study both, "Grand" strategy, and "Singular" tactics, and then combine the counterfactual facts you will find evident...No small thing, learning that for the purposes of your ultimate understanding 1+1=2 AND 1+1=X, simutaneously and definitively. No more fainting spells while betting a river heads-up I would hope...Except in that rare instance of coures.
The basic guidelines are as follows.
1.If hand looks marginal pre-flop, fold it. Always err on the side of conservative but aggressively represented "playable" hands.
2. The "Feeney" AQ test, and related importance.
3. Isolate and limp as effectively and inexpensively as possible. Learn to make the truly "good" late-street folds, A. Big wires B. Set -vs- flush/wheel C. wheel -vs- assured flush D. flush -vs- pair board and probable boat E. Medium- and smaller set -vs- top set and the like. F. Quads...Kidding, except naturally on the straght-flush board, and even then, as rare as the most exotic poker circumstance can be. G. Ace-King (suited)- versus ace-rag board and loose-aggro suckout artists or unimproved on turn or river against solid opponents when no paint has hit the board or your draws have come to little fruition. H. Snow White: Note. If you have, what you know to be the pure nuts, and are not raising to the cap on all streets (cunningly of course, so as to not raise the hackles of your foes before necessary). If you cannot lose, than any act, save for those used for purposes of containment or misdirection of your investors, is true "weakness". You should never be afraid to bet or raise as the situation demands, because you are win-and-lose going to be "correct" for the most part. If you begin to fear the postflop commision of certain hands because of an innate perception of essential "marginality"...You have just hten been informed that your opening zeal is unconciously too loose in its fervor. Rock up, and re-create or set new precedents for your own image in future play.

Self-Analysis,is always the companion of the savvy gambler. The bottomless font of poker knowledge lies within the corridors of your consciousness. When all literature has been delved it is a source of new information, continually.

Note: The texts, or essays of many of the twoplustwo, and other unaffiliated authors can be helpful to the student. At the summit of poker importance, a motley cabal of varied players compose the, in my humble opinion at least, "pantheon" of cannonized poker figures. List including but not limited too, David Sklanksy, Doyle Brunson, Amarillo Slim Preston, Bobby Baldwin, Stu Ungar, Ray Zee, Mason Mallmuth, David "Devilfish" Ulliot, , Howard Lederer, Mike Sexton, Phil Ivey, Allan Cunningham, Freddy Deeb, James McManus, Gus Hansen, Phil Hellmuth, Jr.-his tourney record cannot be denied, Bob Ciaffone, Chip Reese, Mike Caro, Bobby Hoff, TJ Cloutier, Tom McEvoy, Matt Savage-"president of the poker states", Daniel Negreanu, Johnny Chan, Barry Greenstein, "Action" Dan Harrington, Marcel Luske, and of course top personal respect goes to "THE ELEMENTS" including "Spirit Rock", and the many well-loved others that boredom and fading self-respect prevent me from including.


Happy Holidays and Hot Cards,
Pat Fresh /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[Nightwish]

Both bet/fold and check/fold are absolutely awful weak-tight strategies here. Sounds to me like you just had a bad session.

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]
Both bet/fold and check/fold are absolutely awful weak-tight strategies here. Sounds to me like you just had a bad session.

[/ QUOTE ]

no, I was aggressive and got owned that hand. What do you suggest?

[Casinoexploits]

Whaaaaattt did that guy just say.... Feeney AQ test.. 1+1=2 Talk about over my head. Remind me to not sit at his table.

I don't think you can fold this, especially with 13SB in the pot and an overpair. IMO, you gotta push your edge here. It seems as though an A in that position might be worrisome, but not a Q. Correct me if this is totally off, but I think you have to pay peoples sets off with overpairs unless you have a huge read on them and they just keep pumping the pot.

Wouldn't a TAG take that opportunity to 3Bet an AKs.. (AKs I know is less likely due to the Hero having 2 KK) but it's still a possibility.

Casinoexploits /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Both bet/fold and check/fold are absolutely awful weak-tight strategies here. Sounds to me like you just had a bad session.

[/ QUOTE ]

no, I was aggressive and got owned that hand. What do you suggest?

[/ QUOTE ]
Post the entire action and I'll tell you if you played it right. Unless you went absolutely nuts when it was clear the guy had a set, my guess is that your play was probably reasonable...

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Both bet/fold and check/fold are absolutely awful weak-tight strategies here. Sounds to me like you just had a bad session.

[/ QUOTE ]

no, I was aggressive and got owned that hand. What do you suggest?

[/ QUOTE ]
Post the entire action and I'll tell you if you played it right. Unless you went absolutely nuts when it was clear the guy had a set, my guess is that your play was probably reasonable...

[/ QUOTE ]

I bet flop, get raised, I reraise, he caps. Turn and river are bricks and I check/call them. He flips over A's.

[MicroBob]

English only at the tables please.

[ML4L]

Hey Reef,

[ QUOTE ]
Here's the scenario- you have K's in middle. A lag pf raises early, you 3 bet, and a semi-tight decent late position cold caps... Whenever a Q flops, you are going to want to bet/fold or check/fold this flop most of the time.

Do you see why? and it's not even close

[/ QUOTE ]

This is clearly incorrect. Here is the short version as to why...

1) If it is checked to the capper and he bets, it is coming back to you with 14.5 SB in the pot. He could turn QQ face-up right there, and you would probably be correct to call (you are going to get multiple bets on the turn/river).

2) Even tight-passive players might cap here with JJ/AK some of the time. And, if you are against one of those two hands here, folding is a HUGE mistake.

I think that you might have an argument for not calling down to the river IF your read is iron-clad. But, to fold the flop here for one bet is absolutely terrible.

However, in no-limit, it is a completely different story...

ML4L

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Both bet/fold and check/fold are absolutely awful weak-tight strategies here. Sounds to me like you just had a bad session.

[/ QUOTE ]

no, I was aggressive and got owned that hand. What do you suggest?

[/ QUOTE ]
Post the entire action and I'll tell you if you played it right. Unless you went absolutely nuts when it was clear the guy had a set, my guess is that your play was probably reasonable...

[/ QUOTE ]

I bet flop, get raised, I reraise, he caps. Turn and river are bricks and I check/call them. He flips over A's.

[/ QUOTE ]
You played it perfectly. Doing anything else will cost you money long-term.

[manpower]

[ QUOTE ]
However, in no-limit, it is a completely different story...
ML4L

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the idea that best sums up this thread. The pot is simply so large, and the bets into it so small, that you really have to be paying off here against most opponents.

[Reef]

same scenario happened. same results. I really feel that forums are pressuring me to keep the K's when I know they're bad. Or maybe coincidence?

I have position on decent villian who caps pf. Flop is Qxx. He bets, I raise, he 3-bets. Turn blank- he bets, I call. River Q, check/check. Flips up A's

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
However, in no-limit, it is a completely different story...
ML4L

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the idea that best sums up this thread. The pot is simply so large, and the bets into it so small, that you really have to be paying off here against most opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

My friend who makes a living as a pro said you never have to pay anybody off. Pretty simple sentence, lots of meaning. But just have to resist the urge to continually make those "great laydowns" I guess (which sometimes aren't so great).

[Seether]

[ QUOTE ]
it's not even close

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have to say this is way off. You made a generalization off simply preflop play. There are many aggro players who would cap with JJ, and AK will very often cap(yes I know the likely hood of AK is slim with you having KK). I really do not see how you could make such a weak-tight play your standard line.

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it's not even close

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have to say this is way off. You made a generalization off simply preflop play. There are many aggro players who would cap with JJ, and AK will very often cap(yes I know the likely hood of AK is slim with you having KK). I really do not see how you could make such a weak-tight play your standard line.

[/ QUOTE ]

I may have overused the "and its not even close" line. My standard line is to raise the flop and see where I'm at. More often than not, I'm 3 bet. Tricky players may call the flop raise and raise the turn. I end up calling down. I'm shown AA or QQ a lot more than AQ or JJ

[Dave H.]

Here's something to think about, Reef...

Borrowing from gaming_mouse's solution of a similar problem,

Let's assume you have KK and that the hands you're worried about (for argument's sake) are AA and QQ.

There are 6 ways to make AA and 6 ways to make QQ. So there are 12 hands total that you are worried about. There are 50 cards total left. So against 3 opponents, the chance that at least one person has AA or QQ given that you have KK is:

Note:
50 choose 2 = 1225
48 choose 2 = 1128
46 choose 2 = 1035
44 choose 2 = 946

1 - ((1225-12)/1225)*((1128-12)/1128)*((1035-12)/1035)= 0.032

<font color="red"> So about 3% with 3 oppos. For 4 oppos, it's about 4.4%:
</font>
1 - ((1225-12)/1225)*((1128-12)/1128)*((1035-12)/1035)*((946-12)/946)= .044

The same method can be used to solve for any number of players.

[ChicagoTroy]

[ QUOTE ]
I end up calling down. I'm shown AA or QQ a lot more than AQ or JJ

[/ QUOTE ]

But once you factor in the other KK, AKs, and the possibility of AKo (he had position on you and may have suspected an isolation reraise on your part), things start looking a lot better.

Still, the preflop action and flop are bad enough that I would checkraise the flop so as to only go three bets if possible.