optimal stats for shorthanded games

[hypermegachi]

please fill in the blanks! what do you guys think are the best long term ranges we should be in?

VP$IP:
VP$SB:
VP$BB:
Fold SB Steal:
Fold BB Steal:
Att. Steal:
Won $ WSF:
Went to SD %:
Won $ at SD:
PFR:
Aggression-Flop:
Aggression-Turn:
Aggression-River:
Check-raise %:

[EvanJC]

curious as well. bump

[balkii]

please fill in the blanks! what do you guys think are the best long term ranges we should be in?

VP$IP: 36.7
VP$SB: 42.0083
VP$BB: 71.03
Fold SB Steal: 56.999134
Fold BB Steal: 16
Att. Steal: 45.356591002
Won $ WSF: Most of the time
Went to SD %: 80.6667
Won $ at SD: 100
PFR: 1.2
Aggression-Flop: 7.8
Aggression-Turn: 0.1
Aggression-River: 5.569
Check-raise %: 18


If you get your stats just right, you are sure to be an optimal winner.

[Turning Stone Pro]

Friends:

I am sick and tired of having to read these ridiculous posts on "optimum stats" and garbage like this. What does all this crap mean?

The key to success is playing solid, winning, poker based on careful study and experience, and playing in a game with people without the careful study and experience.

These stats are misleading and irrelevant. They are not an indication of successful play, in any way, shape or form.

There is now becoming this almost cult-like following of PT stat-worshippers, which, like Rounders and the TravelChannel, is simply creating additional and substantial income for true experts (including about 4-5 elite 2+2ers).

The people trying to learn this time-honored and difficult game would be well-advised to stop worrying about VIP, BFD, etc., and spend more time learning the fundamentals of strong short-handed play.

TSP

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]

These stats are misleading and irrelevant. They are not an indication of successful play, in any way, shape or form.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bullshit. 90% of successful SH players will have tight-aggressive stats in which they defend their blinds a reasonable amount.

[hypermegachi]

considering limit is all about the little edges longterm, i don't see how this information isn't useful.

[ QUOTE ]

The key to success is playing solid, winning, poker based on careful study and experience, and playing in a game with people without the careful study and experience.

[/ QUOTE ]

and with careful study and experience it's apparent that VP$IP and PFR will converge to around 25% VPIP and 15% PFR.

[ QUOTE ]

These stats are misleading and irrelevant. They are not an indication of successful play, in any way, shape or form.

[/ QUOTE ]

a stat of folding 100% BB to steal is a major leak. an aggression of under 1 is a leak. just some examples of how these numbers do indicate success. i've yet to see anyone with an aggression of under 1 to be successful long term.

[ QUOTE ]

There is now becoming this almost cult-like following of PT stat-worshippers, which, like Rounders and the TravelChannel, is simply creating additional and substantial income for true experts (including about 4-5 elite 2+2ers).

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't worship it. i think it's a good tool and i just want to maximize it's effectiveness in improving my game.

[ QUOTE ]

The people trying to learn this time-honored and difficult game would be well-advised to stop worrying about VIP, BFD, etc., and spend more time learning the fundamentals of strong short-handed play.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed. and with enough hands you'll see if you are executing those fundamentals well. in SSH a good portion of the book is on protecting your hand. if your check raise percentage was 0.1% you obviously aren't doing enough hand protection.

[ALL1N]

[ QUOTE ]
Friends:

I am sick and tired of having to read these ridiculous posts on "optimum stats" and garbage like this. What does all this crap mean?

The key to success is playing solid, winning, poker based on careful study and experience, and playing in a game with people without the careful study and experience.

These stats are misleading and irrelevant. They are not an indication of successful play, in any way, shape or form.

There is now becoming this almost cult-like following of PT stat-worshippers, which, like Rounders and the TravelChannel, is simply creating additional and substantial income for true experts (including about 4-5 elite 2+2ers).

The people trying to learn this time-honored and difficult game would be well-advised to stop worrying about VIP, BFD, etc., and spend more time learning the fundamentals of strong short-handed play.

TSP

[/ QUOTE ]

A blunt analysis, but yes, I am also tired of the stats posts.

PT is a tool for decent players to increase their winnings by trying to match their stats to great players, yet any truly talented player will just be waylayed by it. As this forum is mostly decent players aspiring to goodness, I don't think PT stat-worshippers should be shunned, but if they could use the search button before starting their own post it would be greatly appreciated.

[EvanJC]

go tell mason that using statistics to guide the way you gamble is "rediculous" /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[MrFeelNothin]

[ QUOTE ]
is simply creating additional and substantial income for true experts (including about 4-5 elite 2+2ers).


[/ QUOTE ]

And I suppose you would be one of those elite 4-5 players? Get this drivel out of here and go back to being ridiculed in the mid-high forum.

[wheelz]

[ QUOTE ]
go tell mason that using statistics to guide the way you gamble is "rediculous" /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

That's different though.

I think the point Turning Stone Pro is trying to make (and I agree with him) is that people shouldn't be concentrating so hard to make their own stats fit these "ideal" numbers. You shouldn't be playing a hand thinking about which line will make your stats look better, you should be thinking about making plays to win you money.

Well, at least that's my opinion. I don't think the stats are useless, but I do think they're overvalued.

[naphand]

I find my self in the uncomfortable position of agreeing with TSP on this. There is far too much PT-navel gazing, not enough hand posts and not enough in-depth discussion. THe PT stats seem to be a kind of "short-cut" to not having to understand how to play poker.

The fact is, if your strategy is right, the stats will converge. But there are different strategies that work under different table conditions, so they are an approximation at best.

From a purely rational/scientific/statistical viewpoint, stats are only releveant after a very large number of hands (the 10K and 7K stat posts are really going nowhere) and can onlt ever be a guide. PT is not a "tool" to improve your game, it is an indicator of your game play and nothing more. The replay function is more useful from a sessional analysis point of view. Large samples are required for statisticla significance and this necessarily overrides the individual kind of plays and thinking that is required to be a good player.

Poker is a game of individual hands, and a collection of individual decisions. That these can be pooled and an approximation derived does not change this fact. Scientific analysis, by definition, cannot study individual events, or even small groups of events. This one of the major flaws in this method of study, it is forced to ignore the individual in the pursuit of the general. It "homogenises" everthing. Science is useless when it comes to studying unique events that cannot be replicated under controlled conditions. While many of the hands we see can be collected into groups and a "standard" line adopted, we are still required to make decisions based on reads, table conditions etc. individual events. Experienc and an understanding of the game will make you a good player, not unending analysis of statistics, that will merely make you a predictable player. The whole basis of statistical analysis is the ability to predict future events. Think about it.

The notion that you should try to "fit" your hands to someone elses is also nonsense. Without an understanding of "why" you will be lost when it comes to making tough decisions. PT does not put you in tough spots, or provide experience. It does provide some usefula stats that indicate how your opponents play, and in a sense comparisons can be useful, but they can never be superior to table reads. For multi-tabling the auto-rate function can be moderately useful, but only if your definitions are meaningful. Given the continued discussion and requests for definitions I would hazard a guess that we are some way from really understanding what PT is telling us in this respect, and there is quite possibly sa need to further develop the program before auto-rating becomes reasonably meaningful.

V$IP=25% is a touch loose IMO, but it is game dependent. I guess 500,000 hands broken down into 3-4 table-type groups, with a further grouping of hands played by AF of opponents, plus a further breakdown by your table image (defined by V$IP/PFR/W$SD) then by number of opponents, and you might just have it cracked. Onthe other hand, you could just read HFAP and a few other choice books several times each and jump straight into $100/$200.

[helpmeout]

The only thing TSP is elite at is complaining.

As far as the original poster just search around there has been enough discussion.

All the stats really depend on the type of game you are in.

A VPIP of 23-25 may be optimum for 5/10 but not for 10/20 or for 1/2.

After playing 5k or so hands at a limit you should know the sort of range you should be around for each stat.

If you arent sure of a particular stat like folding SB to steal then just look it up and see what the proven winners have said about it. You should at least get a range and from there you workout what you think.

Things like postflop aggression are player dependant, some are LAGGY with 3-4 on flop while myself I am around 2-2.5 on each street.

Just workout where your weakness is and do a seach, if you cant find anything useful then post about it.

[balkii]

[ QUOTE ]
Friends:

I am sick and tired of having to read these ridiculous posts on "optimum stats" and garbage like this. What does all this crap mean?

The key to success is playing solid, winning, poker based on careful study and experience, and playing in a game with people without the careful study and experience.

These stats are misleading and irrelevant. They are not an indication of successful play, in any way, shape or form.

There is now becoming this almost cult-like following of PT stat-worshippers, which, like Rounders and the TravelChannel, is simply creating additional and substantial income for true experts (including about 4-5 elite 2+2ers).

The people trying to learn this time-honored and difficult game would be well-advised to stop worrying about VIP, BFD, etc., and spend more time learning the fundamentals of strong short-handed play.

TSP

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree 100%

[Cerril]

I actually had to stop and think a bit before I realized the complaining was coming from a troll and not someone who is seriously delusional.

Of course like everything there's a kernel of truth in there. You don't want to 'worship' stats, but that of course is not what you're doing. At least as far as I'm concerned, I'd like to know the answer to this question too, so I can ask more intelligent questions about the meaning of these things.

Obviously if optimal VP$IP is 25% I don't plan to play my regular game plus 5% of hands, but I can start thinking about how to loosen up in what positions. Ditto for all of the stats. If my AF needs to be higher then I need to start looking at my marginal hands, especially the calls or raise/fold situations where I folded, and start betting or raising with the best of those.

More importantly, once I get my stats to the point I'm happy with them, I can also use these numbers to evaluate my opponents and zero in on their weaknesses more effectively.

[stripsqueez]

i think the stats pokertracker gives you are great - its a unique way of looking at the game and a different way to consider what you do - has to be good

theory about games that is cold hard science is always over used and commonly misplaced - whats new ?

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Phil Van Sexton]

If people are tired of these questions, they should put together an FAQ for the forum like you see in Limit/Small Stakes or the Zoo.

Obviously, stats aren't everything. However, if a new player has stats like 40/5/0.88, we can point them in the right direction immediately, even if those stats are over a meager sample like 1000 hands.

If you force the same player to post hands, it will take 20 posts to come up with the same conclusions.

Clearly, such a player would need a lot of help to become a solid winning player. However, the PT stats are a quick way to get them moving in the right direction.

If you threw together an FAQ like "VPIP 20-25, PFR 12-15, AF >2 for 5/10", you might avoid these posts entirely, and help newbees who are afraid to post and get flamed.

[chio]

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously, stats aren't everything. However, if a new player has stats like 40/5/0.88, we can point them in the right direction immediately, even if those stats are over a meager sample like 1000 hands.

Clearly, such a player would need a lot of help to become a solid winning player. However, the PT stats are a quick way to get them moving in the right direction.

If you threw together an FAQ like "VPIP 20-25, PFR 12-15, AF >2 for 5/10", you might avoid these posts entirely, and help newbees who are afraid to post and get flamed.

[/ QUOTE ]
this type of attitude encourages newer players to simply "ask for the right answer" in their quest to find an optimal roadmap on how to play poker, which is the exact opposite of what these forums promote

it's already bad enough that most newer players naturally think in this fashion. we need posts that encourage analysis and creative thinking, rather than posts that imply that there is an easy answer to everything, which is what a FAQ post would do

[ QUOTE ]
If you force the same player to post hands, it will take 20 posts to come up with the same conclusions.

[/ QUOTE ]
posts where newer players learn to fold KJo to a tight EP raise are much more useful than "play less hands because your VPIP is too high"

i have to agree with TSP on this one. this "fill in the blanks" post has crossed the line, and is a good example of ignorant posting (no offense to the original poster) that may seriously lead newer players in the wrong direction.

[EvanJC]

if a new player were to aquire the PT stats for a consistantly winning SH player (im not going to mention any names, as the egoes around here are already inflated enough) and were to emulate those stats exactly over a set amount of hands (say 50k or so), then that new player would, barring the craziest statistcal irregularities, be a winning player. thus, your argument that attempting to match PT stats is useless is, well, useless. while this is of course not the optimal way to learn poker, it is, none the less, a way, and wether you like it or not, people will continue to use it as an option, or tool, or whatever you prefer. sorry about the comma overuse ^_^

[chio]

[ QUOTE ]
if a new player were to aquire the PT stats for a consistantly winning SH player (im not going to mention any names, as the egoes around here are already inflated enough) and were to emulate those stats exactly over a set amount of hands (say 50k or so), then that new player would, barring the craziest statistcal irregularities, be a winning player. thus, your argument that attempting to match PT stats is useless is, well, useless.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree with this. however, it is a end-result analysis that doesnt address the fact that it is simply the wrong way to learn, and the wrong way to encourage learning.

i never said PT was useless. it is a complicated tool however, and many players will misinterpret how it is meant to be used.

[ QUOTE ]
while this is of course not the optimal way to learn poker, it is, none the less, a way, and wether you like it or not, people will continue to use it as an option, or tool, or whatever you prefer. sorry about the comma overuse ^_^

[/ QUOTE ]

obviously people can use PT, books, or this site, in whatever fashion they choose. however, it is of my opinion, that this method of learning poker is not just "non optimal", it's TERRIBLE. and can permanently do some serious damage to a new player's learning process by continuing to encourage such methods.

that is why IT IS OF MY OPINION that this particular post is ignorant and terrible

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

if a new player were to aquire the PT stats for a consistantly winning SH player (im not going to mention any names, as the egoes around here are already inflated enough) and were to emulate those stats exactly over a set amount of hands (say 50k or so), then that new player would, barring the craziest statistcal irregularities, be a winning player.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is especially true if the stats being emulated include win-rate. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Incidentally, stripsqueez recently observed of my PT stats (which I was asked to post by someone else) that he struggled to believe I was not winning. Which I'm not, over 25k hands.

Guy.

[hypermegachi]

[ QUOTE ]

posts where newer players learn to fold KJo to a tight EP raise are much more useful than "play less hands because your VPIP is too high"

i have to agree with TSP on this one. this "fill in the blanks" post has crossed the line, and is a good example of ignorant posting (no offense to the original poster) that may seriously lead newer players in the wrong direction.

[/ QUOTE ]

no offense taken. i never meant for this thread to be a "one way to the path" to playing proper poker, but more as an additional method of determining if you are playing well. the VP$IP itself is useless if you don't include the VP$IP for each position...which i should have included in the first post but forgot to. if your VP$IP was 20% UTG and 20% on the button then you clearly have no understanding about position. if you have a low PFR % UTG, then you obviously are limping too much as well.

actually this post was intended for people that already knew how to play well, and thus understand you should fold KJo to a tight raiser, etc. and it's probably a good idea that new players shouldn't even be playing shorthanded to begin with.

[hypermegachi]

also to all the people calling me ignorant...i don't see why you all like to be so condescending. i don't know you, your background, how much experience you have. you don't know mine either. i posted this for discussion. there's no need for personal attacks. i take no offense because a lot of the veteran members here routinely tell the new members to try the search feature (even knowing that the search is less than adequte), or just blatantly make fun of their posts. because of this many new members add a "i tried the search feature..." or "please don't flame me, but..." we are here to discuss about poker, and we should keep it at that.

[balkii]

once I get my stats to the point I'm happy with them

What the [censored] does this even mean?!? "get your stats to the point..." good god tell me how doing that is playing poker.

Work on your GAME, NOT YOUR STATS!!!

[Cardzy]

Just a quick reply to this radical discussion about stats. Learning what the majority of winning players stats are and trying to get my stats similar helped me find many many leaks in my game and helped me dramatically improve my game trying to figure out what they do that I don't. I wasn't necessarily trying to get my "stats" looking like theres, but at the same time, I was trying to do what they were doing in order to fix my game and win. Working with the stats helped me accomplish that and HAS improved my game a lot quicker than it would have improved without them.

My 2 cents. Have a good holiday.

[EvanJC]

i really don't think that everybody is too far apart on this issue, when you get right down to it.

obviously, PT is an revolutionary tool, usable both for analyzing your own play, and as a teaching too for new players (ie these types of stats threads).

if you don't enjoy these threads, then don't read them. i think that if the moderators of this site thought these types of threads were taking up too much bandwith or whatever, then they would do something about it. untill then, my advice would be not to read/respond to them. that being said, people should also search past posts for similar discussions.

plus it's christmas eve and we've all got to have better things to do than to bitch at each other about poker, right? =) happy holidays everybody.

[Phil Van Sexton]

I didn't mean to get into an argument over the value of stats. I have a different opinion, but I'm hardly an expert compared to others in this forum.

I just suggested creating an FAQ rather than complaining about these posts. If the answer to "what are optimal stats?" is "Stats are not that important, you should be focused on xyz".... that would a fine FAQ answer.

I don't think ignoring or flaming these redundant posts is to fair newbees who dont know better.

[balkii]

[ QUOTE ]
if you don't enjoy these threads, then don't read them. i think that if the moderators of this site thought these types of threads were taking up too much bandwith or whatever, then they would do something about it. untill then, my advice would be not to read/respond to them.

[/ QUOTE ]

the reason i responded to this post is not to flame a newbie, its to try to change their thinking and help them become a better player. it has nothing to do with enjoyment of the thread. (the last post i really enjoyed was 'sup bro's gym trip report').

the logic quoted above would essentially also ask me to refrain from reading/responding to hand posts where I think Hero misplayed his hand....

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
(the last post i really enjoyed was 'sup bro's gym trip report').

[/ QUOTE ]

link please.

[Non_Comformist]

Sup bro? (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Board=exchange&Number=137433 0&Forum=,All_Forums,&Words=&Searchpage=0&Limit=25& Main=1374330&Search=true&where=&Name=22855&dateran ge=&newerval=&newertype=&olderval=&oldertype=&body prev=#Post1374330)