How often do you see the flop with a pocket pair?

[TommyO]

I wrote a program to analyze my hand histories for the past month and discovered that I'm seeing the flop with 92% of my pocket pairs. This is way too high isn't it? Does anyone else have data on this? I also discovered that I'm seeing the flop with 58% of my suited hands which is also too high and I'm working on bringing that number down. I've been playing exclusively PP 2/4. What do you think would be good numbers for both of these stats?

[sfer]

92% is pretty close to my estimate, which I would characterize as "almost always."

Suited cards would be much, much, much lower.

[elwoodblues]

At a typical party 2/4 table you can (and should) a lot of your pairs --- even from early position depending on the texture of the particular table.

You will always play your A's, K's, and Q's. Not question, right. That's nearly 25% right there.

J's, 10's, and 9's are also usually an always situation unless it is raised and/or re-raised to you by a tight player. That's another 23% --- let's just say 20% to discount for the raise/re-raise situation.

8's and lower (just to make it easy to talk about):
Late position - no raisers, many callers --- almost always
Late position - raiser and/or few callers --- sometimes
Mid position - no raisers, many callers --- usually
Mid position - raiser and/or few callers --- usually not, depending on texture of table
Early position - usually not, depending on table texture

Combine those and I would guess about 25% - 30% of the time you should play 8 and lower.

That brings me to 75-80%

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
92% is pretty close to my estimate, which I would characterize as "almost always."


[/ QUOTE ]

I had been worrying that I had developed a major leak and this is further confirmation -- not playing pocket pairs enough. I don't know what my number is but I am certain it is nowhere near 90%. At Party $3/6 I often find it folded to me in MP to LP with a small pocket pair and I feel I can neither raise nor call so I fold.

[marching_on_together]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
92% is pretty close to my estimate, which I would characterize as "almost always."


[/ QUOTE ]

I had been worrying that I had developed a major leak and this is further confirmation -- not playing pocket pairs enough. I don't know what my number is but I am certain it is nowhere near 90%. At Party $3/6 I often find it folded to me in MP to LP with a small pocket pair and I feel I can neither raise nor call so I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

That doesn't sound so bad to me, folded to MP3 with 66 and below and i would probably muck unless the players left were weak tight. Against either very passive or very aggresive players it's going to be hard to judge where you are in the hand so i would muck. Anybody think i'm losing value here.

[TommyO]

Is there a way to post a .EXE in this forum? I could post my program if you're interested in finding out exactly what percentage you are playing.

[sfer]

If I'm MP3 I'll openraise down to 44 at a normal table with average players behind me. The boundary is arbitrary. Also, I don't recall getting many situations where I could openraise small pairs late.

[JEM7VSBL]

hmmm, it seems i play pocket pairs a LOT less than you are...i normally won't play anything below 7's to a single raise unless i'm in the blind. for unraised pots, my general rule is to play 2's through 6's only in late position if half the players ahead of me have already called (i normally won't play them in early to mid position)...maybe a little too tight here?

[jedi]

If my table is typically passive, I'll see the flop with any pocket pair from any position. I won't cold call with it (not necessarily), but that's a departure from the normally passive play I see so it's a big red flag.

[JEM7VSBL]

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm MP3 I'll openraise down to 44 at a normal table with average players behind me. The boundary is arbitrary. Also, I don't recall getting many situations where I could openraise small pairs late.

[/ QUOTE ]


hmmm, i would like some more insight on whether you guys like to open raise with low PP's, even in late position...although you are slightly ahead of an average non PP hand, it seems very difficult to play it aggressively if you get callers, or the blinds defend....especially when 3 overcards fall. what do you all think? this may be a leak in my game in that i don't take advantage of low PP's in late position when it's folded to me...normally i just fold....

[marching_on_together]

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm MP3 I'll openraise down to 44 at a normal table with average players behind me. The boundary is arbitrary. Also, I don't recall getting many situations where I could openraise small pairs late.

[/ QUOTE ]

True but it's not totally uncommon either, with one limper in MP3 and with 66 or below in your hand are you calling? For me it depends on the type of players left to act but generally i don't think folding here is a terrible option. With pocket pairs i'm trying to judge if there will be at least four other callers, what the chances of it being raised behind (i don't really mind if it is as long as there are going to be enough callers to pay me off when i hit trips) or alternatively trying to steal the pot from late position with a raise (with few callers you often end up taking this down on the turn). I would be surprised if i'm playing 95% of them though as i wouldn't want to call too many raises with the non-premium ones unless the added callers were present.

[thirdchoice]

I ran a filter and it seems I've never folded a pocket pair T or higher. So I filtered only 99 or below and removed hands when I'm in a blind. These figures are only accurate for limit HE 3/6, 2/4, and 1/2 and are from a database of >6000 hands. I play on other sites that don't 'talk' to PT so this isn't complete.
It seems I fold these hands pre-flop 21.7% of the time. For the most part, they are moneymakers for me and that increases when I add in the figures from the pairs I don't fold. I wish I was doing as well with my suited connectors and high unpaired cards /images/graemlins/frown.gif. Hopefully I'm just in a 'down swing'.

[cpk]

I think after finally reading SSHE that I will break down and admit that I have been giving up too much by dumping 22-66 before LP and when facing 2 cold in loose games. I hate getting trapped for 2 bets on an 8.5:1 shot, but I have realized that the implied odds on a flopped set are beyond gigantic in such games. We're probably talking about an equity north of 4 at all times, (but obviously less than 1 on reraises until you get into the 77-99 range, depending on the shape of the hand and who's raising).

So, since I will be unable to play until after I finish moving next week, I will make this New Years' Resolution:

Resolved: In loose games I will play all pocket pairs at all times when facing fewer than 3 bets, irrespective of position.