Are Party 15/30 players truly as retarded as they seem?

[teddyFBI]

This is a dead-serious question, from a career 3/6 & 5/10 player, because I keep hearing that the play is just as bad at higher limits, but still haven't been comfortable enough to move up, especially since I always figured competition would be much stiffer higher up.

I've been poking my head into 15/30 games lately just to check out the style of play, and more than half of the games I watch are beyond absurd. Players are not only playing trash hands (i.e. T2o, 93o, etc. etc.), but raising preflop, and then playing them post-flop as though they were the nuts, even when the board misses them entirely.

And play on the river seems most wild of all; Players raise and re-raise even when it should be 100% obvious that they have no chance of winning the hand, i.e. watched several hands where board was double-paired, and with one bettor then a raiser, a player casually throws in a $90 re-raise with a low flush (only to get re-raised and shown the nuts of course).

So what is it with play at 15/30. I understand aggressive games, but these are seeminly non-sensical...is it a hyper-aggressive 'strategy' that actually has a place at higher-limits, or is it just trust-fund babies and investment bankers who like sitting at the highest limit tables they can??

________________________________________

[mcozzy1]

I can't speak of 15/30 games, but let me ask you the reverse. I play low limit games (1/2, 2/4). People always say the play is basically the same at the 3/6 and 5/10 games. Is this true? Every time I peek in on a 5/10, the play is extremely tight-aggressive.

[MicroBob]

I think you answered your own question.
Yes, the play is more aggressive....but the guys re-raising with T2o and playing 75% of their hands are obviously beatable.

Watch these guys long enough and you'll see them pull enough Gus Hansen moves to bust themselves out.

there are quite a few good players...2+2 multi-tabling sharks and the like...but they can be VERY profitable if you can handle the emotional roller-coaster ride involved with such large swings.

Couple weeks ago I was sitting to the left of a 93/10 (VP/R) guy. He was literally playing almost EVERY hand. Would cap PF with T2o, etc.
Some wild swings when he would bust my isolation raises back to back by catching runner-runner...but by the end of it all I had booked a dandy little profit.
When the luck is again you though it can really be tough on your emotions though. And the play is a little bit trickier in general because there are enough strong players there where straight-forward play isn't going to be qutie enough.


I'm not the expert though....I've only started jumping into thr 15/30 and I've had enough bad strings in that time to provoke stepping down again for a day or two.

Keep observing the tables, do some data-mining, make sure you have the bankroll, and give it a shot if you think you're ready.
Reading up in the mid-high stakes forum can be helpful also. Some good players post in there (as well as some not-so-good ones...and NO, I'm not only referring to myself).

[Bytestream]

[ QUOTE ]
Check out my drop-out-of-Ivy-League-law-school-to-play-poker-professionally BLOG at www.zbasic.com/pokerblog.html (http://www.zbasic.com/pokerblog.html)

[/ QUOTE ]

At work with a lot of downtime during this holiday season, so I checked out your blog...

I think what youre doing is foolish. Well, if you're thinking "who the f*ck is this guy to tell me that..." I hear you, but you went public with this and Im sure you would like any critisism, postiive or negative. So heres my 2 cents, take if for what its worth....

First off, you once thought you were going to make over 100k a year playing 3/6 poker. Even if you could grind out 3BB/hr it would take you 12 hours a day, 7 days a week, 52 weeks a year of playing and you would still be under $80k BEFORE taxes. The picture you paint in your blog or "regular" work looks like a vacation in the carribean in comparisson to those hours.

Times are great for poker right now. But that will change. Whether it be legislation, bots or maybe the game simply goes out of style like stonewashed jeans, spandex or disco music (of course there will always be poker, but not so many fish) When the pond inevitably does start drying out, the affiliate business won't be earning scratch, and your going to have to be pretty darn special to be grinding out more then 1.5 BB at 3/6 consistently. The higher limits are going to be even tougher. This boom is not only attracting many fish, its breeding a number of solid players as well. You will regret day in and day out not taking that $2500 week summer job that could one day lead to partnership and millions of dollars.

Your biggest mistake however is going to law school in the first place. You obviously have a great amount of disdain for the profession and the work or a regular job. There has to be some other field that interests you though. Poker can't be the only thing you could possibly enjoy doing for the rest of your life. Maybe youre just be hard on the grind of work as a lawyer to assuage your decision to give it up? In that case perhaps you should go to school and practice gambling law. There is certaintly going to be a lot of progress to be made in that area in the next few years. Combining your passions would make "work" a little more enjoyable.

Finish law school or some other degree, get a great job and retire wealthy before your fifty and then follow the WPT around the globe playing poker in dozens of exotic locations for fun and sport. The game is even more enjoyable when you don't have to count on the money to survive.

[MicroBob]

haven't read his blog but I'm going to comment anyway (because that's what I do).


1. some people start off in law-school and then grow to hate it. This happened with a good friend of mine who went back to school at 30 or so....and is just now completing law-school at 34. the only reason he finished was because he had already started it and he really was at a point where he felt he couldn't back out. He called it 4 of the most unsatisfying educational/professional years of his life (or something like that).

Different strokes for different folks. If teddy started law-school and later decided it sucked then that's his decision.


2.
You could win $2k/wk (same as $100k/yr) by playing 44.5 hours per week of 3/6 on 6-tables winning 2BB/100.

certainly would be difficult...but not entirely impossible.
62.5 hds/hr per table.
375 hds/hr if playing 6-tables.
This is $45/hr (at $0.12/hd....or 2BB/100).

At 44.4 hours/wk you would have $2k/wk.


This would be quite the grind obviously....but it IS possible.
But, anyone who plays this many hands at this win-rate should have the bankroll and skills required to take some shots at 5/10 and perhaps eventually at 15/30 (which it appears Teddy is thinking about doing).


side-note - When I was playing 2/4 and 3/6 everyday I would see a player named TeddyKGB or Teddy_KGB, not sure which (assuming this is the same person) on several of my tables. He is NOT someone that I looked forward to having on my tables.

[bicyclekick]

Many are, yes. They are super duper retarded. Thing is, if you don't play well enough the good players will take back the money you got from the retarded players.

Finding the right games is important.

[teddyFBI]

[ QUOTE ]
2.
You could win $2k/wk (same as $100k/yr) by playing 44.5 hours per week of 3/6 on 6-tables winning 2BB/100.

certainly would be difficult...but not entirely impossible.
62.5 hds/hr per table.
375 hds/hr if playing 6-tables.
This is $45/hr (at $0.12/hd....or 2BB/100).

At 44.4 hours/wk you would have $2k/wk.


[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget rakeback - I can count on $2,000 - $2,500 / month in rakeback. That's a pretty frightening implication: I pay $100,000 to $120,000 per year in RAKE ALONE for the privilege of playing poker with Party.

[MicroBob]

Whoops...the guy I was thinking of was TEDDY_KGB I think.
But I also think I have played with TEDDY_FBI before.
It's all so confusing.

[Bytestream]

No doubt that law school (or any school) can suck if its not for you. And its a fact that most academically bright young people are urged by counselors, parents etc.. to become "doctors" or "lawyers" because they are "smart" when they may have no interest in those areas at all..

You could describe many mathematical cases for making 2k a week. However playing 365 hand an hour 45 hours a week every week works out on paper but how about in real life. I can watch movies, talk to my fiance, and surf the web while two tabling without a hitch. At three tables, my concentratin on either starts to wane in and out. I rarely four table, because when I do, thats all Im doing, I might as well be on the clock for some job because its got 100% of my attention. 6 tables, 8 hours of that a day and I might get sick of poker real soon, and I've been in love with the game for almost a decade.

I know you play full time for a living, and without asking you to divulge personal info if you dont want, how close are those numbers to your reality?

[teddyFBI]

[ QUOTE ]
Whoops...the guy I was thinking of was TEDDY_KGB I think.
But I also think I have played with TEDDY_FBI before.
It's all so confusing.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm not Teddy_KGB on party, but I do know that player; plays a lot and above average.

[Bytestream]

I think there are 153,936,001 variations of TeddyKgb and MikeMcDermott online. On Pokerstars there are 3456 differnet headshots of Matt Damon avatars.

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
First off, you once thought you were going to make over 100k a year playing 3/6 poker. Even if you could grind out 3BB/hr it would take you 12 hours a day, 7 days a week, 52 weeks a year of playing and you would still be under $80k BEFORE taxes. The picture you paint in your blog or "regular" work looks like a vacation in the carribean in comparisson to those hours.

[/ QUOTE ]

As MicroBob has already pointed out to you, this is incorrect.

It's certainly possible, and the fact that you do not mention multitabling once in your calculations leaves me dizzy.

[teddyFBI]

[ QUOTE ]
I know you play full time for a living, and without asking you to divulge personal info if you dont want, how close are those numbers to your reality?

[/ QUOTE ]

My results are pretty clearly laid out in the blog -- i'd say i've played 45-55 hours / wk so far; 4 to 8 tables at once depending on how i'm feeling and usually between 1.5 and 2 BB / 100.

[Bytestream]

I never claimed it to be impossible. Furthermore, I didnt mention multitabling or single tabling for that matter. I said at 3bb/hr. If you get 100 hands an hour at one table or four, its up to you to decide. If our hero can maintain a rate 3bb/hr at 375 hands an hour, then he deserves to make $100,000 a year.

Many situations can be proven mathematically possible, whether or not they can be sustained in real life is another story.

And for the record, our hero has earned 23k since May 1 playing 4-5 tables of 3/6 full time.

Heres an excercise, you do the math and tell me what the
win rate for that is.

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
Heres an excercise, you do the math and tell me what the
win rate for that is.

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[Bytestream]

That question was actually for Microbob. Theres nothing wrong with your numbers and I am sure you are comfortable with your current lifestyle, but I think you now realize that a six figure income from 3/6 poker is more of a pipe dream then a reality.

I also think that once the "challenge" of proving you can play poker professionally wears down, 45-55 hours a week 6 tabling for $40k a year isn't going to be a "dream" job. And thats assuming Poker remains a job with longterm security. No benefits or 401k or retirement plan...

Im sure you realize that you will not be able to reach the level of financial success most of your classmates will. But your right, you might like your job a lot more... then again, a few of those students might actually like practicing law too.....

[MicroBob]

I could do it I think if I was truly motivated.

I usually am playing anywhere from 3-6 tables....but I'm also spending too much energy posting here and sometimes feel like jumping into an MTT for a change of pace.

I don't consider myself to be terribly disciplined though.
And I think someone with more discipline than me could do it.


I've been playing more 5/10 6-max and 15/30 full lately (depending on my mood and how I've been running, etc).

I can easily get in 2k hands of 5/10 6-max on 6 tables in a few hours without really breaking a sweat.

I also think people conveniently forget that the burn-out factor is not exclusive to online-poker. Many jobs get VERY tedious VERY quickly (moreso than poker imo).
And after 10-20 years doing some of those jobs I certainly know I wouldn't be a very happy person. I have the upmost of respect for those who can grind it out at a crappy job day in and day out in order to feed their family.


Anyway, I'm not saying that 44.5 hours of 6-tabling would be easy. But it IS do-able. and I don't think it's that much harder than working 45-50 hours a week in many other fields.
many 40-hour/wk jobs or more like 50-60/hrs a week...this is the reality of today's work-universe.


And don't forget that there's no commute when playing online from home.
I had a 40-minute commute each way at my last job. forget about the crappy gas prices....just making that drive back and forth is a pain in the ass even if the gas were free.

Yes....online-poker has it's disadvantages too. But, for some people, 45 hours/wk of clicking buttons in a reasonably fun game is preferrable to the same number of hours pushing pencils, shuffling papers, and taking grief from your boss while trying to earn enough PTO to get as far away as possible for a few days.

[teddyFBI]

[ QUOTE ]
And for the record, our hero has earned 23k since May 1 playing 4-5 tables of 3/6 full time.

Heres an excercise, you do the math and tell me what the
win rate for that is.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disapprove of the hijacking of this thread, but while we're setting things straight for the record, I've only been doing this full-time for the past 3 months (part-time prior to that), so I've been at a $70K - $75K pace.

Of course I appreciate all feedback, both positive and negative, as you're correct - I am the one who 'went public' with this...and I have received enough encouraging PMs about my ordeal to satisfy me that people at least find it thought-provoking...if you wish to continue this dialogue, I'd be more than happy to do it via PM, although I suppose you could continue posting your thoughts in this public forum if you think it's contributing to the general discourse.

And for any and all those who'd like to help me get a grip on the 15/30 games, as I hinted at in my original post (remember that?), let's hear it!

[Bytestream]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes....online-poker has it's disadvantages too. But, for some people, 45 hours/wk of clicking buttons in a reasonably fun game is preferrable to the same number of hours pushing pencils, shuffling papers, and taking grief from your boss while trying to earn enough PTO to get as far away as possible for a few days.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not every job is a grind like this. There are actually jobs out there that people enjoy and don't get sick of doing. I think Poker is one of those "grind it out, pusing paper" kind of jobs if you make it your living. But if I had to choose between one of those it would be Poker in an flash.

However, a bright young Ivy league law student can have his pick of jobs, that don't fit into the "grind" category. Why grind it out at poker for a living if you have a choice? Its a much better pastime.

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
However, a bright young Ivy league law student can have his pick of jobs, that don't fit into the "grind" category. Why grind it out at poker for a living if you have a choice? Its a much better pastime.

[/ QUOTE ]

For once, I think I'm in almost total agreement with you.

The only thing I will add is that some people might prefer the "grind" of poker over the grind of having a boss. So, whatever you do out of college needs to put you in the same position for optimal satisfaction. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

There are many jobs out there which fit this description, but the vast majority of them do not.

Again, I'm agreeing with you. I just thought it might be useful to make that particular point.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Why grind it out at poker for a living if you have a choice? Its a much better pastime.

[/ QUOTE ]


I still think that is very debateable and certainly up to the individual.
both directions have their advantages and disadvantages.


Not to be nit-picky...but:

[ QUOTE ]
If our hero can maintain a rate 3bb/hr at 375 hands an hour, then he deserves to make $100,000 a year.

[/ QUOTE ]

for the record, my previous calculations assumed a win-rate of 2BB/100...not 3BB/100.

At 3BB/100 he could obviously make his $2k/wk with fewer table hours.
Either 6-tabling for 29.5hours/wk.
Or 4-tabling for the same 45 hours/wk (increase your win-rate by 33%....decrease your # of tables by 33%).


Regarding the teddy_KGB guy.
yes....this name is used a zillion times. But there one specific player on party 3/6 named Teddy_KGB who seems to be 4-tabling about 10 hours everyday as best I can tell. He would ALWAYS be on when I was playing and I couldn't get away from him. Always during late-nights (such as now).Don't know if he's there anymore....but I do agree with TeddyFBI that he at least above average...and maybe even a little better than that. Maybe a bit on the weak-tight side though.

[Bytestream]

you are absolutely right that the heart of this matter is of personal taste, circumstances and goals at the very least...

One of the more important points I was attempting to make which got sorta sidetracked is the risk vs reward of this decision. Online poker has only been around for 6 years and who can say what the future holds. Its not even technically legal in most states. No one knows how good the games will stay or for how long etc etc etc... One thing is for certain is that you can't make the same living playing B&M as you can multitabling online, so if something happened to online poker, and it is your primary source of income, then you're going to be in a world of hurt. Sure, every profession has its job security worries, but I would be hard pressed to find another that seems as volatile as "professional online poker player" does right now.

To give up on a law degree with only two years left to gamble that you can earn 50-100k a year playing online poker for the next 40 years seems like the -ev route IMO. If this was like, "Im giving up bagging groceries or landscaping or filing TPS reports for Lumberg" then sure what have you got to lose? But bailing out on a proffesional degree that close to completion seems hasty at best. Sure, you can go back to school if things don't work out, but you can always quit whatever your doing and play poker.

I dont know anything about the original poster, Im assuming with half an ivy league education, there have got to be some hefty student loans waiting... maybe not, maybe mom and dad are rich and our hero only needs to semi-support himself for a few years untill mom and dad kick and then he comes into a ton of money...

[OrangeHeat]

Or his twin brother perhaps....

Orange

[MicroBob]

In a way, I think the points you bring up actually should make one MORE inclined to go the online-poker route right now.

Get in and take advantage of the situation while it lasts. The whole thing might die in a few years for all we know.
So now is the time to make the fairly easy cash (assuming you are a good enough player and you enjoy it).

However, I am saying this from more of a mind-set of trying to move up to 15/30 eventually.
Not from the mind-set of staying at 45+ hours of 3/6 for the next several years.


IF (and that could be a BIG IF I admit) the games are still this good in a couple years AND one has improved to the point of being able to multi-table 15/30 for $150k or more per year then now is the time to make some income and save it.

If/when it either dies down OR you just get sick of it/burn-out, THEN you can go back to school or wherever...and might even have enough $$$ stocked away that you can better afford it.

That's how I'm looking at it.
If the games continue to be this good and if I continue to improve and keep winning then I'm going to try to make as much money as is realistically possible while continuing to maintain 'a life' with all the leisure and free-time I desire.

If things die down in 2 to 3 to 5 years or if I get completely burnt-out on it then I won't be completely left in the cold.
I'll have significantly more money than I would have had if I had kept my previous job.

Right now, I'm planning on doing this for at least another year.
I might actually do this for the next 20 years for all I know. Or I might give up on it WAY before then.
I'm flexible.

[4thstreetpete]

Hey Teddy, I've been following your blog with great interest lately. Keep up the good work.

As far as your situation goes, I think it's a personal decision and one shouldn't judge another unless they walk a mile in their shoes. I understand your reasons for taking some time off because I too 'feel myself dying a bit everyday' as I grind away on my 9-5 job.
Funny how when I was in school I wanted to go into the business world, now I'm absolutely disallusioned with the corporate world. However having said that, I think the advice given on this thread has been good though. You had an offer on the table for $2500 a week to practice law and to give that up to play poker will leave a lot of people scratching their heads.
I know that when I was younger I felt like I was on top of the world and how much I hated school. There was absolutely no way that anyone could persuade me to go pursue a career in law because that just wasn't me no matter how good the money was. I imagine you're somewhat like that too.

Nonetheless good luck in what you are doing. I have no doubts that you'd be successful in poker judging by your charts and the amount of time you take to analyze your stats. That's better than 90% of the poker population.

I'll comment on the players at 15/30 a little later because right now I have to go to work /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[CORed]

As a regular 15/30 player, I can say that there are a lot of retarded players. In the last week or two, there seems to have been an influx of extreme LAG's. There are also some very good players, and a fair number of players who play a pretty good postflop game but play way too many hands preflop. I would also say that many of the bad players are more observant than most of the players at lower limits. If you just play ABC poker, they will tighten up and you won't get much action from them. If you vary your play some and semi-bluff the flop sometimes, most of these players will pay you off well.

[Losing all]

he does

[tom]

The dead serious answer is no. The play at this level is a lot more agressive than at lower levels, but in general, most players have a pretty good understanding of the game.

The game does have its share of clueless rich folks, but keep in mind that you also have to contend with the really good players, and much better than average players.

The game is definitely beatable (as other posters have already stated), but I wouldn't say it is easily beatable, or that the players are retarded.

[4thstreetpete]

http://zbasic.com/blogcharts/9table.jpg

Hey, is this all in one screen? What kind of monitor do you have and what's the resolution? because it looks like to me that it's on one screen or are you using a multi desktop software. Looks confusing.

[SlantNGo]

When you have 2 monitors running on the same machine and you hit the PrintScreen key to take a screenshot, it shows up as one wide screenshot, which is what I guess he's doing here. The 4 Party tables on the left monitor, the Empire & Eurobet on the right.

[4thstreetpete]

[ QUOTE ]
When you have 2 monitors running on the same machine and you hit the PrintScreen key to take a screenshot, it shows up as one wide screenshot, which is what I guess he's doing here. The 4 Party tables on the left monitor, the Empire & Eurobet on the right.

[/ QUOTE ]

OIC, thanks.

[exist]

when you hit the print screen key, where does the pic go on your hard drive??

[BusterStacks]

it goes to your clipboard. Open mspaint and paste it.

[teddyFBI]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey, is this all in one screen? What kind of monitor do you have and what's the resolution? because it looks like to me that it's on one screen or are you using a multi desktop software. Looks confusing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, i have a dual monitor setup and the software that came with my graphics card allows me to extend my desktop...then I just use the printscreen button as mentioned in the previous post

**May i please ask that you go into your post and remove the link to that image; with all the views it's getting on this forum, it's quickly eating into my allotted website bandwidth...I'd like to give the link to my blog so that ppl could check it out on their own, but I've been told by the mods that i'm not allowed to give the link on the forum anymore (your guess is as good as mine).

And if I may brag a little bit about my numbers, since it was brought up by someone else earlier in this thread, I had my best day ever at the tables today; won $1,400...and that was all at 2/4 and 3/6 tables, so there -- that was playing between 6 and 8 tables; i just gave 9 tables a hot for 30 minutes for fun.

***And GODDAMNIT, i can't go to bed tonight till i win the bad beat jackpot, which is now at a ridiculous $315K***

[largeeyes]

It says Error Getting Clipboard Data when I try to paste into MSpaint with my split desktop. How odd.

[Matt24]

to make over 100k in 12 months while playing 3-6. I 8/9 table and earn over $3k a month in rakeback. it can be done, I havent played over 160 hours in a month yet either.