$33 Hand.

[lorinda]

Just a hand to throw out there for discussion.

I was quite pleased with my play in this hand, but I'm sure some will hate it.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t1910)
UTG+1 (t930)
MP1 (t770)
MP2 (t410)
MP3 (t775)
Hero (t855)
Button (t860)
SB (t715)
BB (t775)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls t15, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Hero calls t15, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t60</font>, BB folds, MP1 calls t45, Hero calls t45.

Flop: (t195) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t80</font>, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t160</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t655 (All-In)</font>, Hero


Lori

[BobK]

Easy fold from my point of view. He doesn't believe you have a six and he very likely has a pair like jacks or tens and doesn't want an overcard to come down. It's early, I'll wait for a better situation.

[soko]

I agree, easy fold. if he has a 2 or two overcards he will still win 20% of the time, that's too big of a gamble this early in the tournament, and that is of course assuming he doesnt have a 6 or a higher pocket pair which he will some of the time. Winning a hand like this once will make you feel good but come across the same situation 5 more times and you will be losing more than winning.

[Irieguy]

I fold to the preflop raise in level 1 with medium PP. But if not, I would fold postflop. If there was no preflop raise and the same action occurred on the flop, then it's a different story.

Irieguy

[raptor517]

wow. i would definitely get out. i wouldnt even think of raising, as he could have 99 or better VERY easily. you must think about what someone is willing to REraise all in with. not raise. REraise. that should signal something.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold to the preflop raise in level 1 with medium PP.

[/ QUOTE ]

How come, Irie? Lorinda has position in the hand, and by the time the action gets around to her she's getting 3.3:1 immediate odds to call for a reasonable 5% of her stack. Seems like an easy call to me.

[soko]

ilya, probally to avoid situations like this.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
ilya, probally to avoid situations like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you can plan to fold on the flop no-matter-what unless you hit your set, and still call preflop profitably.

[soko]

Sure, that is your opinion just like what he said was his opinion. He never criticized her play just said how he would have played it.

[raptor517]

in a 30+3 i will call a small raise with 88 because i know that enough people will go all in with TPTK or even overcards. so i figure if i hit my set i will double up about 80% of the time. so the call is fine, no set no bet though. anything higher i conserve every single chip and wont ever call a raise in the first 2 rounds.

[lorinda]

As a general rule I'm willing to call 10% of my stack preflop with any PP as long as there's no chance of a reraise and as long as I'll still have 700 or more chips.
Obviously this is tempered by the play so far, but this was early on so I had no reads.

Clearly the call is for set value.

When this flop appeared and the half-pot (or so) bet was made, it seems to be one of two things.
1) The standard AK miss bet.
2) The standard rope someone in bet.

My turn raise is the obscure play IMO.
I'd fold in this spot more often than not, but I felt his small bet was small enough (Especially given my extra few chips that I already had) that I could find out cheap enough if I wanted to continue in this hand.
Had he called, then I'm probably either getting to the river cheaply, or taking this down on the turn depending on what falls. Either way he's likely to check the turn and I can take a view.
A particuarly shrewd player can set me up here with AA or similar, but as it's a game of percentages, I decided that _most_ players would either push their big hand right now, or call with AK. The only other hand I was inviting to push was AKs.
With the flush draw out there, many players won't let you have a free turn card if they are winning.

I folded to the push, and he showed me KK.

My next question is "What are the chances he pushes on a bluff?" as whether my play was good or bad depends on the answer to this.

Lori

[lorinda]

you must think about what someone is willing to REraise all in with. not raise. REraise. that should signal something.



This is why I raised the minimum on the flop, I wanted to get the signal.
The question for me is whether this was too transparent.

Play the hand from his point of view and assume he has AK, personally I think that up to this point he could have AK and if he just calls then I am fairly sure that I'm ahead.

Again, I'm more interested in opinion than saying I'm correct.

Lori

[GrunchCan]

Ignoring, for now, the fact that this is level 1, I think raising the flop is the only possible play. IMO, a raise from the SB usually means a good hand, but not usually a high pair. I usually put BB raises on a PP TT or lower, or 2 broadway cards. Considering this, the paired flop is good for your overpair hand. The chance that you have the best hand is quite high, but you certianly aren't out of the woods. Hand is too strong to fold, not strong enough to call. You therefore must raise.

However, it is after all still level 1. At this point in the tourney, I just don't want to get involved. Usually getting involved this early with good-but-vulnerable hands like this ends up winning a little or losing a lot. If I don't hit the set on the flop, I fold to any bet.

Now, I should say that I am a limit ring game player who is starting in NL tourneys. I'd love to hear why my approach is all screwed up.

[lorinda]

If I don't hit the set on the flop, I fold to any bet.

Now, I should say that I am a limit ring game player who is starting in NL tourneys. I'd love to hear why my approach is all screwed up.


Your approach is fine.

If I didn't think this hand were a little controversial, I wouldn't have posted it /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Lori

[Gar Pike]

What do you do if it's a bigger flop bet by your opponent? Say, 125? 175?

Would you have made a bigger bet if positions had been reversed?

If you were going to fold to an all-in reraise, would you consider just calling the initial bet and folding to a turn bet, if the turn didn't help you?

Regards,

Gar

[lorinda]

Perfect questions, aimed just where I wanted this to go.

What do you do if it's a bigger flop bet by your opponent? Say, 125? 175?

Fold. A mini-raise now costs me too much.

Would you have made a bigger bet if positions had been reversed?

Probably not, but I would also have played AK this way and called/folded to a raise.

If you were going to fold to an all-in reraise, would you consider just calling the initial bet and folding to a turn bet, if the turn didn't help you?

No, because I have no idea where I am in the pot without the raise.
A call is pretty much an invite for him to bet again, whilst giving him the option back right now gives me a much better handle on where I am in the pot.
If the turn comes a rag and he fires another 100 in there, I'm now in a bit of a spot where I can easily end up folding to a bluff or calling off too many chips when I'm beaten.

Lori

[GrunchCan]

Considering the fact that it's level 1, I still don't get why you chose to play at all after the flop bet. Can you explain?

[adanthar]

I like this line and often use it, but the problem with it is that it costs too much when it fails.

Against plain old bad players (not LAGs), calling the flop works just as well - if they miss the turn, they'll often check/fold or minbet and you can take it down. (The extra turn card isn't a problem since AK will call this minraise anyway; if you want to get the pot on the flop, it'll cost you another hundred more, and 1/5 of your stack isn't worth the reduced chance of a six outer.)

[ QUOTE ]
If the turn comes a rag and he fires another 100 in there, I'm now in a bit of a spot where I can easily end up folding to a bluff or calling off too many chips when I'm beaten.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he bets 100 into a pot of 500 on a raggedy board on the $33 level, raising him all in is very +EV.

But like I said, that doesn't mean I don't like this. I just like it more with 200 more chips.

[lorinda]

Considering the fact that it's level 1, I still don't get why you chose to play at all after the flop bet. Can you explain?

Just a balance thing, I felt that I could afford to lose the pot and not cripple myself (barely) and that winning it would have enough positive impact on my stack to make it worth a pop.

A 270 or so profit would put me at 1100+ which is a really comfortable stack, whilst a 180 (from this point on) loss leaves me in the 600 range, which is still workable, if not ideal.
Folding leaves me at around 800, which is of course comfortable.

I've never used the ICM, but it would be interesting to see what it says about the relative values of those stack sizes to give a % of the time I would need to win this pot for it to be correct.

Lori

[dtbog]

[ QUOTE ]
No, because I have no idea where I am in the pot without the raise.
A call is pretty much an invite for him to bet again, whilst giving him the option back right now gives me a much better handle on where I am in the pot.


[/ QUOTE ]

What if he stop-and-gos you with his KK?

You make your raise, and he calls. Are you putting him on AK, at this point? What if the turn is a deuce, and he bets out? I assume you're done with the hand?

[pooh74]

I wouldnt have read KK there. The flop poses problems for a big over pair and his flop bet didnt seem like someone who had a big hand and was preventing a draw...therefore, i think the minraise is perfect to guage where u are...obviously, the fold is also perfect...i would've played this the same which I am not sure is a compliment to you lorinda /images/graemlins/wink.gif
pooh

[ilya]

I prefer folding to the initial flop bet. Plenty of hands he could have that have you buried, and plenty of hands that you're ahead of, but
a. he will re-raise with because he's frisky like that, and you'll have to fold anyhow, and
b. he will flat-call with &amp; bet with on the turn when any one of a huge variety of scare cards falls.

Plus, even with the raise you could get trapped by a big hand if he's tricky enough to, say, flat-call and check the turn.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
Sure, that is your opinion just like what he said was his opinion. He never criticized her play just said how he would have played it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, sounds like you're criticizing Ilya here implying that his post to Irieguy was out of line or attacking in some way.

FWIW I'm pretty sure Ilya was in no way criticizing Irieguy -- in fact, I'm almost positive that his intention was to hopefully learn something from Irieguy (a respected poster with a lot of experience) by asking why Irie made a pre-flop play different than what Ilya normally does.

If Ilya had said something like, "Irieguy - you need to call that pre-flop, you suck, your pre-flop play sucks and I own you" -- then your above post makes a bit more sense.

Anyway, this post is my opinion and I acknowledge that all posts referred to are other posters' opinions (to save you the trouble of pointing that out in a subsequent post).

Oh, and I am also quite interested to hear why Irieguy does not think that a call pre-flop in this situation is a good idea, /images/graemlins/grin.gif . I am pretty sure his opinion on the matter may be educational and help me in my own quest to maximize my $EV.

Yugoslav

[Irieguy]

I don't think many people are going to agree with my reasoning... but here's why I fold:

I don't have a problem limping with 88 or higher in the first few levels of a SNG because I have confidence that I can extract a lot of value out of not only set potential, but my ability to play the pair after the flop with a small pot.

Once the pot is raised, it changes things, though. The implied odds for the set are there, but post-flop play becomes a more complicated situation. Here's the problem- because it's early in the SNG, I am not going to want to play a big pot without a top-value hand. This will force me to fold after the flop if I don't make my set. But folding will often not be the best play. With a bigger pot to play for, there is more to be gained from playing the hand in a manner similar to Lorinda's line. I play this hand in a ring game, or a tournament where everybody's stacks are deep (not a SNG).

I feel that my strategic decision to avoid big pots early in a SNG will force me to make negative EV plays after the flop (folding) so frequently that it off-sets the set value of a pocket pair. So I just stay away from the situation. It's kind of strange logic: I believe my post-flop skill is too developed to profitably fold routinely when I miss my set. So, in order for me to play the right way... I would need to be willing to continue with these hands if I felt I could outplay my opponents after the flop. If I did that, I would go broke more frequently in the early stages of a SNG (in exchange for a healthier early stack more frequently), and I am not comfortable with that trade-off.

Irieguy

[stripsqueez]

i think the pre-flop is fine - i am not unhappy to pay a small pre-flop raise with a hand like this as it ensures my implied odds - if you told me when he raised pre-flop that he had KK i would be disappointed it wasnt AA but still delighted to put my chips in

i like folding to the flop bet - in addition to the obvious problem of being bluffed out of the hand which i think will happen a lot a good player may just call the flop raise and check the turn with a hand like KK and thats not good

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[TakenItEasy]

I didn't notice anyone maantioning anything about the preflop reads.

SB: probably strong since he will be first to act I would expect a premium hand, otherwise I would just expect a call.

MP1: Limps and calls a raise. Could have been slow playing a high pair otherwise I would have expected a raise the first time around with AK or AQ. I expect he would have folded a drawing hand.

Add to this fact that it is early play and you probably don't have enough reads on anyone. Also standard play is to play extremely tight in early play because the blinds are too small. The risk reward is not worth it.

Sorry, but I think you probably had the worst of it all the way.

[tiger7210]

I fold here to the all in. I think the check raise on the flop is fine to look the player up who may be bluffing with AK.

Your 88's are too vulnerable to any over pair to call the all in. If the SB had just called your reraise now you have the advantage as the aggressor.

[tiger7210]

Even if he was semi bluffing with AKs, you're still behind here. I think it was played perfectly and more often than not a player with a big pair will push in his spot to protect his big pair against the flush draw.

[rachelwxm]

You are getting 1:5 to call a raise PF, so I would call here most of the time since your implied odds is pretty good. But I would fold on flop most of the time unless sb is very LAG.