On the Bubble - - Easy Push ????

[smellynuts]

10+1 NL on Party

Chip leader was a pretty Tight Solid player throughout the tourny.

***** Hand History for Game 1335697597 *****
400/800 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 8087121) -Wed Dec 22 21:36:38 EST 2004
Table Table 11473 (Real Money) -- Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: cue6272 (1390)
Seat 7: JDMhatch (1550)
Seat 8: Donationspls (3165)
Seat 9: hilosambo (1895)
cue6272 posts small blind (200)
JDMhatch posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to JDMhatch [ 7c, 7d ]
Donationspls raises (800) to 800
hilosambo folds.
cue6272 folds.
JDMhatch folds.
** Summary **
Main Pot: 1400
cue6272 balance 1190, lost 200 (folded)
JDMhatch balance 1150, lost 400 (folded)
Donationspls balance 3765, bet 800, collected 1400, net +600
hilosambo balance 1895, didn't bet (folded)

Whats your play??

[lorinda]

What hand number is it at this level?

Lori

[Mr_J]

$10 tables, big stack is trying to steal. Min-raise probally means he's been getting away with it and probally is stealing with any 2. I'd push.

[lorinda]

$10 tables, big stack is trying to steal. Min-raise probally means he's been getting away with it and probally is stealing with any 2. I'd push.

I don't think it's that clear. Even if it's a steal, he's probably got two overs and is pot committed, and it may not be.
If the blinds go up in the next couple of hands, the pressure is really on the other short stack to take a shot, and when he does, our position will be clearer and we can still likely get a 40-60 or better even if he doubles thru.

Lori

[Mr_J]

"I don't think it's that clear. Even if it's a steal, he's probably got two overs and is pot committed, and it may not be."

True that it's not clear as a steal. I don't think big stack is pot committed at all. He has 2200 after the min-raise. If he loses, he's basically swapped positions with smelly, and is at decent risk of going out unplaced. I think big stack will fold most of the time. The times he doesn't, smelly is still ahead most of the time.

Also remember I'm a newbie /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[lorinda]

Heh, I'm being very careful not to say "push is wrong" here, because I'm sure it's a close case.

I don't think big stack is pot committed at all

In a $11 at Party, _He_ will think he's pot committed /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Lori

[Mr_J]

"In a $11 at Party, _He_ will think he's pot committed"

heh probally /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Also means he's probally just a high card, maybe nothing if the table has been letting him get away with it.

[Jman28]

With his stack in a $10+1, I'm almost positive he'll call. If you think he's got something like A3o, then it may be worth the push. Otherwise, muck it. You don't need the coinflip here.

[smellynuts]

Yeah for some reason i put him on a over pair 88+. I ended up running into AK a couple of hands later and busting out 4th.

[soko]

Easy push for me, you can only survive 2 more orbits, this is the time to hope for AK, AQ, AJ and take a coinflip for a chance to take the chiplead or bust out.

[raptor517]

so lorinda, you say the big stack is not pot committed at all? its 750 more for him to call into a 2150 pot. almost 3-1. he is VERY pot committed. this is not an EASY push. it is a close play. you will get some that say fold, but i would venture to guess that the majority would say push. he could just as easily have a5 as kq. i would push.

[Mr_J]

No lorinda said big stack (at $10+1) would think he is committed.

I said he might not think that (he's pot committed).

Part of my arguement for pushing is that big stack will often fold (maybe not as often at this level). Even if he calls though, AK will very likely be in front.

[ilya]

I'd stop and go.

[raptor517]

i know what you said. my argument is that big stack will not fold on any level, because whether or not he knows it, he is getting sufficient odds to call any 2.

[Mr_J]

"so lorinda, you say the big stack is not pot committed at all?"

I was just pointing out that she never said that (that big stack isn't pot committed), I did.

"because whether or not he knows it, he is getting sufficient odds to call any 2."

I doubt most at $10 think about the pot odds. My thoughts were he'd see the all-in, and a decent chance than he might not want to risk it (since a loss would mean a decent chance of going out 4th).

[Phoenix1010]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd stop and go.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Stop and go > push in this situation. Unless he's a very poor player, and on a complete steal with garbage (two things which may or may not be mutually exclusive), he's not folding this preflop. Unless he's got an overpair, or is a tough player who will call your flop push with unpaired overs, a stop and go turns a likely coinflip into a 2 to 1 in your favor. Even more if he'll fold less than top pair. Perfect time to use this move.

Regards,
Steve

[curtains]

Stop+Go is better than allin in this spot. Folding is too weak, you have no guarantee whatsoever that you can fold your way into the money, and your hand is too strong.

[Monkfish79]

What's a stop n go? I've heard of a wash n go, but not this.

I would push (and surely you are hoping for a weak Ace, rather than 2 overs).