QJo steal-raise against a TAG.

[Entity]

Villain is clearly TAG (16.3/PFR 10.7/2.72 Tot-A), but I don't have any stats on how he deals with blind stealing situations -- in 233 hands I have him as folding SB and BB to steals 100% of the time, so I don't know how accurate that is. When he caps, I'm folding the turn UI. Then I hit my J, giving me between 2 more and 5 more outs.

Does this appear to be a case where I overthought what my opponent would do when he figured me to be stealing?

I really suck at these situations. Obviously I'm betting when he checks to me; it seems to me that he'd rarely want to checkraise a strong hand here, IF he is a thinking TAG (obviously I've only got stats, so I don't know if he's thinking or just aggressive). So I put him on a weak hand that doesn't want to see overcards -- possibly something like T9 or such. But when I improve on the turn, I can't see much of an argument for raising the turn, because if I'm behind I'm going to get 3-bet and still be forced to see the river, and if I'm not, he's folding a worse hand with little hope of beating me on the river, right?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB caps</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (8.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls.

Final Pot: 12.25 BB

[mctommy015]

I don't get why you three bet your gutshot straight draw. Just call his raise, and check fold unimproved. 2/4 players in my experience are pretty passive, and won't cap a flop unless they have at least 2 pair.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't get why you three bet your gutshot straight draw. Just call his raise, and check fold unimproved. 2/4 players in my experience are pretty passive, and won't cap a flop unless they have at least 2 pair.

[/ QUOTE ]
This guy isn't passive, though I don't necessarily disagree with your analysis.

Rob

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously I'm betting when he checks to me; it seems to me that he'd rarely want to checkraise a strong hand here, IF he is a thinking TAG

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get this... if he knows that you're on a steal, and he knows that you're betting the flop, then by CR'ing you on the flop he'll at least get 2 small bets out of you no matter what you have. I don't see why you think he wouldn't do that with an A, or 2pair? He wouldn't want to wait until the turn, b/c the flop is the only street where he KNOWS that you're going to bet. If I was in his spot with a decent hand the only possible lines I'd take with a decent hand would be CR'ing flop, or betting out and hoping to get a 3bet on the flop. If I have 2 pair, or a strong A, I know that by CR'ing the flop I can get 1 BB from you on every street when you have an A, or maybe even KK- JJ. A turn raise might scare you, but a flop raise, and 1 bet per round likely won't chase you out if you have any type of showdownable hand in a HU situation.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Obviously I'm betting when he checks to me; it seems to me that he'd rarely want to checkraise a strong hand here, IF he is a thinking TAG

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get this... if he knows that you're on a steal, and he knows that you're betting the flop, then by CR'ing you on the flop he'll at least get 2 small bets out of you no matter what you have. I don't see why you think he wouldn't do that with an A, or 2pair? He wouldn't want to wait until the turn, b/c the flop is the only street where he KNOWS that you're going to bet. If I was in his spot with a decent hand the only possible lines I'd take with a decent hand would be CR'ing flop, or betting out and hoping to get a 3bet on the flop. If I have 2 pair, or a strong A, I know that by CR'ing the flop I can get 1 BB from you on every street when you have an A, or maybe even KK- JJ. A turn raise might scare you, but a flop raise, and 1 bet per round likely won't chase you out if you have any type of showdownable hand in a HU situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess this makes sense. The question if he check-calls the flop is how often I'll bet the turn as well, and I guess he can't know the answer to that, so checkraising the flop makes the most sense. I should adjust my reads in HU situations accordingly.

Rob

[helpmeout]

This belongs in SS.

I agree that this is a call/fold the turn unimproved situation. 3betting the flop is way too agro, since this is 8handed he is much more likely to have big cards.

Calling the turn is fine.