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09-02-2001, 06:05 AM
Four people left. Round 600-1200. I'm in SB have 360 before round, after posting SB 300 only 60 left, guy on BB has 0 after posting BB. EP player with 3000 folds, button raises with 4000 . I have pocket 99, what should I do, fold hoping that BB will be kicked out and I'm in the money, or call all-in. But if the button kicks us both out I'll be on 4th place, because before the round I had less chips then BB 360 against 600. I called all-in and lost to button he had Q7s and Q was flopped. I spent some time thinking about this hand and still don't know the answer. Please help. Thanks.

09-02-2001, 07:11 AM
I think you should have folded. The button raiser must beat the BB to eliminate him - so even if you win the BB must be third or you have only bought yourself a little bit more time. By folding you have the chance that the button wins and 2 hands to hope that someone puts out the BB, if he survives. You can also get lucky and survive a bit longer than the 2 hands.

09-02-2001, 10:38 AM
Seems like the right play here- would be to call.......


Your call creates a better chance that the big blind will get knocked out of the tournament-- a result which is your first priority-- AND- at the same time- gives you a chance to build your stack.........


I don't see how this isn't a call.

09-02-2001, 10:43 AM
I agree with Davie. You have to fold, it's a terrible, tough fold but you have to do it.


Once in a $20 HE PP tournament, I finished 2nd saving my last 75 chips.In the BB after posting $400 BB I had A-Js, UTG raised and 1 player called. I immediately folded and after a very good streak I finished 2nd.


Marco

09-02-2001, 11:01 AM
Some math about the situation for a $10 tourney.


Let's assume all hands are equal and if the poster calls she is 2-1 to win and if she doesn't the BB is even money to win.


The first calc is simple. If she folds the button has a 50% chance of winning, so the chance of the poster getting 3rd prize is 50%. Her total equity when folding is half third prize money plus 60/8000 of the remaining $80 prize money- $10.60


If she calls she only wins 1/3 of the time and the big blind still beats the button half of that time.


So 1/6 of the time she wins third prize of $20 and has a stack of 1080 - this gives her a total equity of $5.13.


1/6 of the time the BB comes second, so the poster has not secured any prize money and her equity is 1080/8000 of the total prize money - $2.25. (there may be some debate about this figure, but it would have to be considerably greater than my estimate to make calling correct. It is also quite likely that the Button has a hand that is better than even money to beat the BB, making folding correct)


So the total equity for folding = $10.60 the equity for calling = $7.38

09-02-2001, 02:28 PM
As Dave pointed out, the fact that BB had you covered is the key. Even if you call and win, the BB may very well end up getting the side pot. You'll have failed at getting another player out and really, your chips won't have significantly increased. Yes, I know, you'l have doubled through, but at these high limits, the bottom line is that whether you have 1 chip or several hundred, the blind is just as scary when it comes around. Here I think all you can do is fold and pray. Oh yeah, and because you don't have any more chips, you can't defend your medium pair against overcards on the turn and river. It's just sooo many ways to lose. You never know, sometimes you're even beat already. It sucks to make a tough call like that in hopes of doubling through, only to find out that he's got TT or JJ.


-MD

09-02-2001, 11:22 PM
ok......... but its pretty reasonable to assume here........ that NOT all hands are equal.


Right?

09-03-2001, 01:36 AM
Thank you all very much. I'm thinking now that yes I should have folded and pray, or even pray-fold-pray again. The only point I would like to make if fold I have 50/50 chances 3 or 4 place. But if I win main pot I'll have 1080 chips and some chances to move up. Actually I'll have 1000 against 3000 and 4000, yeah chances are still not very good.


FOLD!!!

09-03-2001, 04:36 AM
It's probably even better than 50/50 that the BB goes out and you get at least third. Since the button did raise, your probably talking about at least a slightly better hand than the BB's random hand.


So with that, I'd say it's a clear fold situation. Does seem tough to fold 99, which is likely best, but you gotta do all you can to get to 3rd place. Then freeroll, who knows? I'm pretty sure I've played in PP tourneys where someone's turned less than 60 chips into an eventual 1st place.

09-03-2001, 05:50 AM
Absolutely no question you must fold. I wouldn't even l;ook at my cards in this situation. I would have folded QQ and thought seriously about dumping KK.


To finish in the money you have to win with 99 against two players in a showdown, as you cannot bet yourself, to eliminate anyone. You have to figure that the button has some sort of hand at least one and probably two overcards, as he was betting into 2 nearly allin players. Don't expect him to be on a stone cold steal.


Against one player with two over cards you are a small favourite, but against two players (even though the big blind hand is totally random) you have a lot less to gain than if you fold and let the button eliminate the big blind. Even if the big blind folds he might stupidly go allin next hand, and you still get in the money.

09-03-2001, 01:58 PM
Unless someone has a big pair or a hand that dominates the other 2 in some way e.g AQ vs QJ vs A7. There is not likely to be a huge difference between the hands. The button is likely to have a better hand than the BB which makes folding more correct.

09-03-2001, 05:56 PM
I understand. And- she's already said that she has a big pair.


I mean two 99's in this position isnt a huge hand? Isn't it reasonable to assume that she's up against two random hands?


Run two 99's against two random hands........ i think its gonna win more than 1/3 of the time- isnt it?

09-04-2001, 04:31 AM
You are all absolutely right, now I realize it's 100% fold. Thanks all of you for clear explanation, I hope I won't repeat the same mistake again.


BTW, today I had similar situation and folded AKs. I raised UTG, but button(leader) re-raised and I folded because I realized I had chips advantage over other 2 players(4 left at this moment) Result - 2 place.

09-04-2001, 05:38 AM
I could be wrong-- and again....... i have very little clue about tournaments............ but..... it seems to me....... that if you're not willing to even call a reraise in this spot-- you shouldnt have raised in the first place.

09-04-2001, 01:12 PM
I could never, in either scenario, play "weak" and hope for a money spot, vs. going for broke with what appears to be best hand.


I'd much rather go out firing from any tourney, than to get weakly blinded out, in the hopes someone else will take out the other low stack and get me a weak "third". The blind is approaching fast. I may miss "3rd" a few times by firing in my chips with pocket 99's,, but the reward of the "firsts" and seconds I will get by pushing the best hand and building a usable stack, will outweigh the times I would have eeked out a third by folding a strong hand.


To raise an AK hand and then lay it down for a single reraise, just isn't going to happen in my game. I'd rather get my chips ALL in the pot at that point and hope to obtain a dominant lead for a first place finish.


IMO, if you consistently play for first, you are going to gain more equity in the long run than playing for third.

09-04-2001, 01:34 PM
Every situation is different - in the example above Natalie may have been perfectly correct to fold AK in the face of a lot of heat, and given her chip position, she could still win the tourney by doing so. If she commits herself here, she could bust out with nothing. There are plenty of opportunities in these tourneys to pick up easy chips with one raise.

09-04-2001, 01:37 PM
99 isn't a big pair.


The key to this situation is the equity Natalie gains when the button puts out the BB. She has got to be a very strong favorite to gain more by playing. 99 just isn't strong enough.

09-04-2001, 02:21 PM
>>> If she commits herself here, she could bust out with nothing. There are plenty of opportunities in these tourneys to pick up easy chips with one raise. <<<


No there are not plenty of opportunities.


Keep in mind that these are nothing at all like "real" tourneys. The ultra fast escalation in blinds at this level, makes this such a crap shoot, that any perceived hand advantage is worth exploiting over the "random" type blind hands that will come your way and threaten your stack in very short order, toward the end game in these tourneys.


"Plenty of opportunities" is definitely not the case in these 1 table tourneys, once it is down to 4 players. Quite the opposite.


Any "Good" opportunity to get yor chips in when you are the favorite, is likely to be a shot you won't get again before you are blinded out with rags, a few short hands later. AK, is a HUGE hand against 3 random hands. If I raise AK and get re-raised, (most likely by a dominated Ace, or 2 big cards), there is virtually zero chance I won't reraise back here in a 1 table PP tourney in it's final stages.


However, there are all kinds of scenarios where I might play it differently in a "real" tourney when indeed, time, patience, and relative "money" position strategy, may reward you instead of punishing you.


I have substantially more "firsts" on PP one table tourneys, relative to "seconds", or "thirds". No doubt I also have some 4th's and 5th's resulting from aggressive play, which could have been "3rd's". But the added 5X payoff "firsts" that result from this style, more than compensate for the added out of money finishes that will also result, when pushing bigger hands vs. sitting on the sidelines hoping someone else will take out the "4th" place small stack.

09-05-2001, 09:27 PM
The AKs hand, i believe the correct play is to call, and then bet or raise regardless of what falls. Unlike 99, AKs is very rarely a serious underdog, and unless your opponent flops a complete hand or a set, you still have outs after the flop.


Depending on the chip counts of course i think AKs is a hand that can be pushed harder than 99.


However, I disagree that your aim should always be to play for first. I myself place in about 45% of all tournies, and of those i secure first about 65%. Nevertheless, big profits can be made from turning 4th and 5ths into 3rds, and 3rds into 2nds, solely through inaction. Here is where knowing your opponents play is paramount. Some players are easy to steal from in late stages, some players will call with 26o and then hang around on bottom button to beat AKs. For these players you need a bigger hand, but you can grab all of their chips in a single motion.