Post deleted by Mat Sklansky

Oakland Raiders: Commitment to choking.


I would say not to take this moneyline bet. Remember, the Raiders lost to Dallas in pre-season. These days the Raiders look shaky to me. They do not look like the same team that went to the AFC championship game.


They remind me of a team that is just WAITING to break down somewhere. I'm not confident betting on them and getting 1-10 is not good enough for me. Maybe 1-8 or 1-7. It would be SO like them to lose this game. At 1-10, I would pass. If the Raiders and Dallas played ten times, I could totally see Dallas winning one of those games.


natedogg

The lock of the centurty is Detroit +11.5


PG

nt

1. Dog at home on Monday Night. I believe underdogs at home on monday night football win ATS over 70%. I'm not sure of the exact figure, but it is definately a big winner. It usually happens 2-3 times a season.


2. Over 40 and on the road. When a team scores over 40 points and goes on the road the following week, they lose ATS about 65%. It's happened once so far this season. Indy scored 42 against Buffalo, then got whooped the following week at New England. (Suprisingly 3 teams fit this week...STL 42 at DET, NE 44 at MIA, and KC 45 at DEN).


3. Detroit ALWAYS plays tough D at home and they're not as bad as everyone thinks. Week one they got trounced at GB, but GB is one of the, if not the, best teams in the nfl right now. Week 2 they lost at Cleveland, but Cleveland has one of leagues top D's and it was Detmer's first game. They're coming off a bye week and I'd look for their offense to be much sharper.


I've already seen some lines on this game as high as 12.5, so I think I'm in the minority with this pick, but I like it alot. If you do take the Lions, I'd wait because the line should keep climbing.


PG

Have you looked at the fundamentals of the matchup? The

Rams are clearly the better team at ALL the key positions

on offense. Your trends are somewhat correct in there is

a potential letdown factor after a big win. For Detroit to

cover, let alone win, they will have to play MUCH better than

in their other 2 games. I would not get too excited about

Cleveland, Taylor was out for JAC and Detmer is horrible.

Their D is improved over last year, but if Couch gets hurt,

forget it. Plus, Cleveland needs to play a strong offensive team, which they have not yet done. Detroit should be rested after the bye week, so taking the points makes some sense. However, I think it is foolish to call Detroit a lock.

Detroit is definately not a lock. I can't remember the last bet I made that was. I just wanted to be able to say "I told you so" when the Rams don't cover.


PG

Well the Colts are certainly superior to the Pats and it got them a 30 point loss. I think the Lions are a decent bet here, those trends happen for a reason. The Rams game last week was so hyped up and such a challenge for them from the media perspective. They demolished them because they rose to the challenge. What the media and public overlook is that Miami is a team that will get blown out quite a bit over time. They have a team that is purely dependent on having a lead or staying within a score. The team depends on Smith running the ball and the play action they can work off that. They don't have reliable receivers past Gadsden and Hunter Smith isn't a receiving TE. Once the Dolphins gave up that last second TD at the end of the half, I knew they were cooked. So don't read too much into last week's game, the result is misleading in my opinion. The Rams looked impressive and definitely played better, but I don't think people can start thinking they are 35 points better than the Dolphins. So the Rams don't have the challenge this week and play a team that will be hard to prepare for. The Lions have had some time to gameplan and get some new wrinkles in for Detmer. Detmer is certainly not a great passer, but he is an excellent student of the game. He makes mistakes when forced to do more than he can, but in a simple passing game with passes under 20 yards he will perform. The Rams defense can't take that away. They have improved because they are a better run defense again (like 2 years ago), but the Lions won't run on them much. I think the matchups that so favored the Rams last week are gone. To be careful though, I wouldn't call this anything like a lock. The Rams are too explosive to feel safe with points. They can score on any play and even nursing a lead, they could break a big play and cover the number. So lock it isn't but probably a fair bet on the home dog.