MisterKing
12-22-2004, 01:31 PM
I think I missed out on at least one, and probably two bets on the river here. Like many players, I was being too cautious after expereincing the business end of a particularly long string of suckouts. A bad mistake, and as the title of the post suggests, a costly one regardless of the outcome of the hand.
UTG is rated LP-A, with a postflop aggression of about 1.0 - no reads other than that. His VP$IP is out of line, but not intensely so (high 20's).
My question for you is, what's your line on the river (including responses if raised), and how many dollars do you think (on average) I cost myself by check/calling? My thoughts on this question are posted following the hand.
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)
Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.
Flop: (9 SB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls.
Turn: (6 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, Hero calls.
River: (14 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, *Hero says "J9, more power to ya,"* Hero calls.
Final Pot: 16 BB
A day later, my feeling about the hand is that I needed to lead the river and call a raise. This wins me a minimum of one bet when I'm ahead (often two when UTG raises with something like AQ, TT, slowplayed AA, or QT), and costs me at most two when UTG does have that miracle hand to make a straight (J9 or 75). Folding is, of course, never an option.
There are tons of hands posted in this forum every day... I haven't seen enough that really evaluate the EV of the play made versus the other alternatives. So here's a stab at doing just that. I'll put two caveats out there: given his action on the turn and the size of the pot, I do not believe UTG would fold under any circumstance, AND also given the turn action he would never check behind if I checked the river.
I lead the betting (average EV = $4.40):
1a.) When I bet, and he calls, I gather I'm ahead over 85% of the time (see #3 below for the range of hands he's likely to have here, and maybe add in QJs/QJo), for a net EV of $2.80 per hand.
1b.) When I bet, he raises, and I call, I gather my hand will be good more than 75% of the time (conservatively, considering AA, KK, AQ, QT, 44, 88, J9 all seem possible, and MHIG vs all but one of them. 75 is also possible, but seems much less likely than the others). That means I'm winning 3 bets 75 times in 100 and losing 3 25 times in 100, for a net EV of $6 (or +$3.20 relative to the line I took).
I checkraise (average EV = $4.45):
2a.) When I check, he bets, I raise, and he calls, I'm probably good about 85% of the time (all of the hands above, plus maybe KQ or JJ that he can't get away from). That's a win of 2 bets 85 times and a loss of 2 15, for a relative net value of $6.50 -- or $3.70 better than the line I took.
2b.) When I check, he bets, I raise, he 3-bets, and I call, I'm probably in a lot more trouble. My hand is probably good only about 60% of the time here (AA, KK, AQ, QT, 88, TT, 44, J9, and the uber-fishy 75 are all possible... but there are a lot more ways to deal 75 and J9 than there are the pocket pairs or the Q-hands, since I have two Q's). I count 34 dealt hands I can beat from that list (6 ways of AA, 6 of KK, 4 of AQ, 3 of QT, 6 of 88, 3 of TT, and 6 of 44), and 32 that I cannot (16 J9 and 16 75). So 60 times I'll win 3-bets, and 40 I'll lose 3 for an EV of $2.40. I do realize that 75 is much less likely than J9, so this EV is probably on the low end of the realistic spectrum.
I check/call: (EV = $3.20)
When I check, he bets, and I call, I’m going to be ahead well over 85% of the time… probably more in the range of 90%. Using 90% as a guide, I’m winning one bet 90 times and losing one bet 10, for an EV of $3.20.
So, by my math, I left only $1.20 on the table by check/calling. Yes, I left money on the table, but I'm really surprised that the mistake was so small. I didn't work out the details for situations where the pot is capped on the river, though I expect more than a few of you to suggest that capping is exactly what I should have tried to do. One other note... I didn't work out situations where I 3-bet after leading out. I know those situations would probably increase the EV of the lead-bet play overall, but guess that the change wouldn't be that significant.
UTG is rated LP-A, with a postflop aggression of about 1.0 - no reads other than that. His VP$IP is out of line, but not intensely so (high 20's).
My question for you is, what's your line on the river (including responses if raised), and how many dollars do you think (on average) I cost myself by check/calling? My thoughts on this question are posted following the hand.
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)
Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.
Flop: (9 SB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls.
Turn: (6 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, Hero calls.
River: (14 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, *Hero says "J9, more power to ya,"* Hero calls.
Final Pot: 16 BB
A day later, my feeling about the hand is that I needed to lead the river and call a raise. This wins me a minimum of one bet when I'm ahead (often two when UTG raises with something like AQ, TT, slowplayed AA, or QT), and costs me at most two when UTG does have that miracle hand to make a straight (J9 or 75). Folding is, of course, never an option.
There are tons of hands posted in this forum every day... I haven't seen enough that really evaluate the EV of the play made versus the other alternatives. So here's a stab at doing just that. I'll put two caveats out there: given his action on the turn and the size of the pot, I do not believe UTG would fold under any circumstance, AND also given the turn action he would never check behind if I checked the river.
I lead the betting (average EV = $4.40):
1a.) When I bet, and he calls, I gather I'm ahead over 85% of the time (see #3 below for the range of hands he's likely to have here, and maybe add in QJs/QJo), for a net EV of $2.80 per hand.
1b.) When I bet, he raises, and I call, I gather my hand will be good more than 75% of the time (conservatively, considering AA, KK, AQ, QT, 44, 88, J9 all seem possible, and MHIG vs all but one of them. 75 is also possible, but seems much less likely than the others). That means I'm winning 3 bets 75 times in 100 and losing 3 25 times in 100, for a net EV of $6 (or +$3.20 relative to the line I took).
I checkraise (average EV = $4.45):
2a.) When I check, he bets, I raise, and he calls, I'm probably good about 85% of the time (all of the hands above, plus maybe KQ or JJ that he can't get away from). That's a win of 2 bets 85 times and a loss of 2 15, for a relative net value of $6.50 -- or $3.70 better than the line I took.
2b.) When I check, he bets, I raise, he 3-bets, and I call, I'm probably in a lot more trouble. My hand is probably good only about 60% of the time here (AA, KK, AQ, QT, 88, TT, 44, J9, and the uber-fishy 75 are all possible... but there are a lot more ways to deal 75 and J9 than there are the pocket pairs or the Q-hands, since I have two Q's). I count 34 dealt hands I can beat from that list (6 ways of AA, 6 of KK, 4 of AQ, 3 of QT, 6 of 88, 3 of TT, and 6 of 44), and 32 that I cannot (16 J9 and 16 75). So 60 times I'll win 3-bets, and 40 I'll lose 3 for an EV of $2.40. I do realize that 75 is much less likely than J9, so this EV is probably on the low end of the realistic spectrum.
I check/call: (EV = $3.20)
When I check, he bets, and I call, I’m going to be ahead well over 85% of the time… probably more in the range of 90%. Using 90% as a guide, I’m winning one bet 90 times and losing one bet 10, for an EV of $3.20.
So, by my math, I left only $1.20 on the table by check/calling. Yes, I left money on the table, but I'm really surprised that the mistake was so small. I didn't work out the details for situations where the pot is capped on the river, though I expect more than a few of you to suggest that capping is exactly what I should have tried to do. One other note... I didn't work out situations where I 3-bet after leading out. I know those situations would probably increase the EV of the lead-bet play overall, but guess that the change wouldn't be that significant.