new to holdem, am i missing too many river bets?

[mostsmooth]

heres an example: the board after the turn is J8K8 rainbow. i have 87. my bet is called by one player and im fairly certain this player has either a J or a K and we are headsup now. river is a J. i check. i feel this player would raise the river with a J, and call with a K. am i playing waaaaay too conservative? (if this same situation was checked to me against this particular opponent i would bet.)

[JinX11]

It's kinda tough to give sound advice with the betting sequence by street for your example hand.

That withstanding....

If he has a K, you gain 1 BB on the end with your bet and his call.

If he has a J, you lose 1-2 BB on the end with your bet and his raise (depending on if you are willing to fold the river raise).

If he has neither a K nor a J, he probably folds if you bet, checks behind if you check (so, this scenario is trivial).

When you're ahead, you gain 1 BB possibly. When you're behind, you lose at least 1 BB. Seems like a check is in order for your example.

[mostsmooth]

i didnt think the need was there for the betting sequencing. i said i was pretty sure he had a J or a K. i assumed people would understand that feeling was due to any betting and checking that occurred pre and post flop and how the player has been playing. unfortunately the way this person played, it was not possible to tell if he had a J or K. im not trying to figure out if my read is right, just curious if based on my read, my actions are right. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[bicyclekick]

Without actually reading your post, the answer is yes. I've never met a new player who doesn't miss river value bets. It takes tons and tons of experiance. It was one of the harder things for me to learn, and I'm still learning, I guess.

[phixxx]

Agressively bet those situations. Most of the time you will be paid off by completely different hands than you fear on the river, regardless of how scary the board is.

[TMac]

What’s important here is how often he will bluff. If he never bluffs when you check, you are better off betting. (as opposed to checking and calling). You will always make the correct laydown when he bets.

Assuming he holds a K 60% of the time and a J 40% of the time. Six times in 10 you win one bet by betting (6BB) and 4 times in 10 you lose 2BB by betting and calling his raise (-8BB). Over 10 plays you are down 2BB by betting.

However, if you check and call, and he only bets a hand you cannot beat, you’ll break even 6 times when he has a K and calls your check, but lose 1BB 4 times when he has a J and bets and you call. This is a net loss of 4BB which is obviously worse than a loss of 2BB.

But if you plan to check and fold to his bet because you know he never bluffs, you are better off checking because it yields you 2BB over 10 plays.

[mostsmooth]

sounds like TOP
i read that one, maybe i should reread it again
/images/graemlins/cool.gif