Theory Question

[djoyce003]

I was playing at a super juicy table last night, and every player but me was seeing over 50% of the flops. Every time I raised with a big hand AK through say 10 10, every limper would call and basically the small and BB would call as well. Basically, I knew my raise would not thin the field down to 1 or 2 opponents, and if I did raise with AK and missed i'd get called down to the river by a pair of 2's.

I experimented with a slight strategy change and starting calling with these hands instead of raising at least some of the time. Early I would still raise them, but late i'd limp. It seemed to cut down on my variance, and when I hit the hand it seemed like I won more when I hit because nobody suspected the big hand, and I lost less when I missed.

Thoughts/comments?

[Phil Van Sexton]

Don't worry about "variance". Either a play is +EV or its not. In the long run, things will even out.

Hands like AK or TT are clearly profitable against 5 random hands. You say that raising made them "suspect a big hand" which causes them to call pre-flop and fold post-flop. Therefore, when you have a big hand, you should get the maximum money in pre-flop, and then do everything possible to protect your hand and get them to fold on the flop/turn.

Your insane 6-max table is basically playing similiar to the standard, loose 10-handed games that Ed Miller and Lee Jones have written about (ie 4-6 people seeing every flop). Therefore, I'd look to follow the traditional advice for these games. ie fold hands like ATo out of position, call with small pairs, raise with big hands....plenty of posts/books about these games, just not in the HUSH forum.

[Mr. Graff]

I think you are putting too much emphasis on the value of surprising your opponents. Get the money in when you are so much ahead preflop. You are giving up too much by only calling AKo. Also, there is no rule that says you have to stay on a bad flop.

You are probably running bad and that tends to cloud ones thinking about how to play overcards.

[Benjamin]

[ QUOTE ]
Your insane 6-max table is basically playing similiar to the standard, loose 10-handed games that Ed Miller and Lee Jones have written about (ie 4-6 people seeing every flop). Therefore, I'd look to follow the traditional advice for these games. ie fold hands like ATo out of position, call with small pairs, raise with big hands....plenty of posts/books about these games, just not in the HUSH forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you have a good point here, but I think folding hands like ATo out of position on any loose 6-top is insane. Big unsuited is better in the ultra-loose 6-max than in the loose 10-top with the same number of players seeing the flop. This is because there is hand selection going on the in 10-top, while you are playing essentially random hands on the 6-top.

B.

[naphand]

Overcards are trash (without some big re-draw) when facing 4-5 opponents. Against 1 or 2 they are the best hand a significant portion of the time, and that is where much of the advice on playing overcards comes from on the Forum. In super-loose games you should tighten up your PF raising standards some because you have more opponents to beat. Yes you will win bigger pots, but avoiding the more marginal PF raises which often do rely on getting folds is good strategy. Of course, you should loosen up your standards with hands that play well multi-way, PP and suited connectors, and if you can get in for a limp a large proportion of the time, they can be played from BB to CO with no worries, and possibly even any position.

Loose games make middling hands vulnerable, the power hands obviously win more. Swap some middling hands for hands that have big implied odds. This may mean limping more hands, and even limping in EP, but so be it. Outplay them post-flop with these hands and play more thoughtfully with hands like TP and 2nd-pair, esp. after the flop.

[djoyce003]

sounds like really good advice. Basically that is what I experimented with last night and had my best night ever at 5/10 6 max. Had 1 6max 5/10 table and a 3/6 ring up. Was up 700 on the 6max table. I limped late with the suited connectors, suited aces and kings, and mixed up my raising, sometimes I raised big hands, sometimes I didn't. Maybe I was just in the zone or had a crazy good feel for the table, but for whatever reason, I killed.

[Trix]

[ QUOTE ]
and if I did raise with AK and missed i'd get called down to the river by a pair of 2's

[/ QUOTE ]

It sounds like it might be the postflop play that is the problem, rather than the preflop valueraise.

[Hellmouth]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't worry about "variance". Either a play is +EV or its not. In the long run, things will even out.


[/ QUOTE ]

Not exactly. Dont forget that there is an optimum amount of bluffing that is required as well. Also the fundemental therom of poker states that if you opponants play incorrectly that you win. It is not all expectation value (although EV is very important). You must also keep your opponants off ballance to maximize your winnings. Otherwise you will become predictable.

Sometimes when you are in the zone, a little variation from optimum play is a good thing. It can boost your BB/hour rate a lot.

Greg

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
I think folding hands like ATo out of position on any loose 6-top is insane.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand your point of the randomness of the hands. However, you are still playing a multiway pot, and ATo isn't great multiway.

When playing against these types, I want I really strong hand if I'm going to be out of position and have no clue as to what my opponents might be holding.

If folding ATo is insane for you, what about A9o? A8o? KJo?

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
Dont forget that there is an optimum amount of bluffing that is required as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who said that a bluff is -EV? I raise from cutoff, get 3 callers, pot is $40. Rainbow flop misses me completely. Checked to me. I bet. I'm getting 8:1 on that bluff. This is likely +EV.

In the original post, the opponents were calling any pre-flop raise, and often calling down with 22. In this case, the optimum amount of pre-flop bluffing is likely 0%.

However, if they really were calling any bet pre-flop and then folding quickly on the flop, I would start raising more from late position and then hoping to take down the pot with a bet on any flop. I wouldn't consider this -EV. If I bluff-raise from the button pre-flop, it's because I think I can win money with my bluff because they fold too often post flop.

Against players this bad, there's is no reason to make -EV plays, IMO. Maybe you give away a bit of EV on occasion for deception, but I wouldn't go negative.

[Benjamin]

[ QUOTE ]
If folding ATo is insane for you, what about A9o? A8o? KJo?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I guess I was exaggerating a bit. I'd definitely play ATo and KJo UTG on a super loose 6-top, though if it were hyper-aggressive along with super loose I might think twice before I played em. A9o is marginal for me, a frequent fold, and the table would have to be very passive along with very loose and I'd consider limping it up front. A8o I'd fold UTG on almost all 6-tops.

B.

[helpmeout]

You raise AKo because you have a large equity edge.

Around 35%(guess) of the time you will make 1 pair. So 1/3 time you will have TPTK, most of the time this will hold up.

When you dont hit the flop you normally fold against a lot of opponents unless you have some big draws also, backdoor nutflush, or a gutshot straight.

You have 5 chimps paying double to see the flop in which you will hit 35% of the time. Its a big edge, thats why you raise.

[jimymat]

Sklanskys Hold Em for Advanced Players goes in depth about this strategy when playing against calling stations and loose players. You should check it out.