A mistake to avoid

[UMTerp]

Sometimes when you're playing multiple tables, it's easy to gloss over some important factors when you're near the bubble. Here's one I made last night, and is another shining example of why stack size is just as important as your cards in the late stages of these things. FWIW, I think the SB made a terrible play here, but mine was worse:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (5 handed)

UTG (t2140)
Hero (t3665)
SB (t6975)
BB (t720)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A /images/graemlins/club.gif, Q /images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, Hero goes all-in for t3665, SB calls, BB folds.

He called with KJo, and I lost the hand and finished 4th. BB must have loved me there. I got carried away with stealing the huge blinds, and didn't even pay attention to the situation at hand. As soon as I realized what I had done, I punched myself in the face and went to bed. Won't make that mistake again for a while.

And just as a side note, I'm pretty sure that this is a rare situation where a call is in order preflop.

[meep_42]

Do you fold when SB pushes and BB folds? SB would be correct to do this with just about any two cards to a limper whom he'll fold out a good chunk of the time.

-d

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you fold when SB pushes and BB folds?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think so, yes. If I called in that situation, that would be worse than pushing myself. Though if SB pushes and BB calls (which he most likely would), I call.

Thoughts?

[EnderFFX]

Is this really such a mistake? If you knew what cards he had, and knew he was going to call wouldn't you take this every time?

First of all, if you win this hand (which you are favored to do obviously) you take a commanding chip lead and can then start pushing hard to set yourself up for the win while the other two players are content to let 4th place get blinded out.

Second, i think a good bit of the time a person in the chip lead with KJo is going to fold. Personally, from that position, with 2nd place pushing all in, I'm not getting involved with a player unless i'm sitting on a high pair, AK, or maybe AQ (and AQ is debateable).

I would agree with you, if doubling wouldn't put you close to the lead.

UTG (1400)
HERO (1600)
SB (9000)
BB (750)

A situation like this, I would probably fold depending on blind position, and playing style of the other players because doubling up helps you a little bit more for getting 1st but not enough to risk ITM for a tournament.

Maybe the best situation (in hind sight) would be to raise to 1200. Hope that the SB will call, and BB will call, so you have two people against the BB. If SB pushes you can let go. However, even that could be disasterous. Cause you take yourself from strong 2nd to weak 2nd, and give a chance for 4th to get back into it. (Worse case scenario, you have you and the two other stacks at the same size as you, and big stack still with a decent lead)

I think you made the right play. You had several ways for this to work out and none of them hit.

1) BB and SB fold (SB should have foled)
2) BB calls ans SB folds (one on one with a really good hand)
3) BB folds and SB calls (you had the better hand and should have won)


I think you made the right play, playing for first is much better than playing for ITM. And it isn't like you bluffed, you made a push with a strong hand.

[UMTerp]

It's a mistake because Chip EV and Cash EV are nowhere near each other when there's a short stack that small near the bubble.

And if I knew he was going to call with KJ if I pushed, I'd have folded in a second. Well, not folded, but limped. I certainly don't mind getting all my chips in with AQ vs. KJ, but it's absolutely essential that I get the BB to come along for the ride too.

[EnderFFX]

What are the formulas for calculating both? I'd like to see how far apart the results are.

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
What are the formulas for calculating both? I'd like to see how far apart the results are.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any ICM calculation isn't going to be entirely accurate with the blinds as big as they were, but I'll crunch the numbers during lunchtime.

I'm 100% sure I'm making losing money by letting the big blind off the hook here though. And SB is losing money by calling too - the short stack (and UTG to a lesser extent) gains all the equity.

[jedi]

I don't think you made a mistake here. Big Stack called off nearly 1/2 of his chips with KJ? Yikes! If he loses, you're the chip leader by a ton. No reason for him to get involved here. If you were a tiny stack, then maybe but not with these stack sizes. I think you did fine.

Now, if you had *called* with AQ, that's another story.

[UMTerp]

OK, there’s four possible scenarios here. I’m making the following assumptions:

The Small blind is putting his whole stack in preflop (which he obviously wanted to)

For ease of calculations, I’m assigning the big blind a hand – I’m putting him on undercards, which isn’t too big of a stretch. He’s getting 8h 6d, I had Ac Qc, and the small blind had Ks Jc.

Prize pool was $225 ($112.50 - $67.50 - $45) – this was a $25 + $2 SNG.

Here are the numbers using http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html and http://www.twodimes.net

1. Push – Call – Fold (the actual result)

If AQ wins (64.5% of the time): 2090–8030–3310–70. My stack’s value = 0.40858
If KJ wins (35.5% of the time): $0 for me.

Total Value for Scenario #1 = (.645)($91.93) = <font color="red">$59.29</font>

2. Limp – Push – Call – Call (the most likely scenario had I limped)

If AQ wins (44.0% of the time): 2090-8100-3310. My stack’s value = .41048
If KJ wins (30.5% of the time): 3rd Place = $45.

86 wins 25.5% of the time. Of those times, I’ll win the side pot about 64.5% of the time.

If 86 wins and I win side pot (16.4% of the time): 2090-5890-3310-2210. My stack’s value = .34676
If 86 wins and I lose side pot (9.1% of the time): $0

Total Value for Scenario #2 = (.44)(.41048)($225)+(.305)($45)+(.164)(.34676)($22 5) = <font color="red">$67.16</font>

3. Limp – Push – Fold – Fold (I’d have folded if the BB did)

2090-3015-8375-70. My stack’s value = .30409

Total Value for Scenario #3 = (.30409)($225) = <font color="red">$68.42</font>

4. Fold – Push – Call (I wasn’t really considering folding here, but I’ll run it anyway)

If KJ wins (64.0% of the time): 2090–3615–7795. My stack’s value = 0.32183
If 86 wins (36.0% of the time): 2090-3615-6255-1540. My stack’s value = 0.28199

Total Value for Scenario #4 = (.640)(.32183)($225) + (.360)(.28199)($225) = <font color="red">$69.18</font>


I’m shocked that folding had the highest value, but I guess it’s correct with an ultra short stack. Limping is clearly better than pushing though. I lost about $8 by pushing.

Does anybody really fold in this spot? Will you start after seeing these numbers?? I guess folding was only correct given the hands the other two held. I'm still convinced that limping is correct by a longshot here.

[UMTerp]

And you have to remember that if this situation happened again, there's a good chance the SB would fold. Then again, he could have a pair or AK also. These numbers were only for the situation that actually occured. Regardless of the cards he held, the fact that he called with a very inferior hand and I still lost theoretical money on the push should make it clear that pushing is very wrong here.

Understanding the value of your stack = one of the most important aspects to SNG play.

I was livid at myself the instant I made the push when I realized how short the BB was. A lot of you seem to be advocating a push anyway - you guys need to rethink some things when you get to the bubble with a medium stack like this - there's a good chance you're losing a significant amount of money in situations similar to this one.

[UMTerp]

OK, I did some more thinking, and I have a few more reasons why limping is a better option than folding, despite the numbers I ran.

1. If SB didn't more or less dominate the BB's hand, the numbers would've worked out differently for Scenario #4. If the SB and BB are 50-50 to win the hand (which in effect they were at the time that I pushed), folding is less profitable than either limping scenario.

2. If the SB was a really savvy player (and obviously he wasn't since he called me with KJ), he could've ran the ol' fold to the ultra short stack play to steal from UTG and myself in the next orbit. My limp would've eliminated that play from his arsenal.

The bottom line is, my limp would've forced the BB to play, or at the very worst, left him with 70 chips. I'm pretty sure that alone makes limping the clearly correct play here.

[EnderFFX]

Ok, I think you left out some important scenarios:

1) Push - Fold - Fold (always profitable)
2) Push - Fold - Call (very profitable, considering if the SB folds, the BB is practically forced into a call because of the pot odds)

These two scenarios are very profitable. (I believe) I think if you recalculate all the Push scenarios and come up with believable percentages of how likely each would occur, you are going to see that Pushing becomes closer to being as profitable as Folding, and maybe more so.

You are making hindsight calculations, I would suggest running these numbers again, with AQs vs any two cards of your opponents.

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I think you left out some important scenarios:

1) Push - Fold - Fold (always profitable)
2) Push - Fold - Call (very profitable, considering if the SB folds, the BB is practically forced into a call because of the pot odds)

These two scenarios are very profitable. (I believe) I think if you recalculate all the Push scenarios and come up with believable percentages of how likely each would occur, you are going to see that Pushing becomes closer to being as profitable as Folding, and maybe more so.

You are making hindsight calculations, I would suggest running these numbers again, with AQs vs any two cards of your opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not going to get much more profitable than getting called with KJ here. And there's no chance in hell the BB is folding if the SB does, so your (1) is a moot point.

And it's really hard to put a number on how often the SB is folding here, since he's obviously willing to call a push with shitty hands. If he calls me with ANY two, the number is about $59.

From talking to you, I know you've been on a big kick with pushing any two from the SB or button on the bubble, but there are some spots where it's just not profitable, even with good cards. This is one of them.

[Mr_J]

4 left. I had over 2k along with 2 of the others) while 4th was on around 600. Other big stack tries to steal (I'm in SB, shortstack in BB). I have AK, he turns over A6 and hit a 6 on the flop. He'd been stealing alot (like me) and I knew I had him here. Cards just fell his way.

A fold would've given me a sure place, with still a good chance at 1st.

[EnderFFX]

I have been on that kick with pushing any 2 from the SB and BB. The reason I'm doing that is because:

1) I am multi tabling, especially when i have 3-4 tables on the bubble, I need rules that allow me to play multi tables without being too much of a loss to my EV.

2) I am trying to get more agressive. Sliding into 3rd hasn't been helping my ROI. But getting 5% more 1sts has been helping my ROI. (by at least 10%)

3) I am playing at a lower level than you. ($16 SnG as opposed to you $27/$60) Often times when it is down to 4-5 people, a lot of players freeze up and try to drift into the money.

I'm not saying I'm right on any of my points, I'm arguing my points to learn where my game lacks. I might even be able to make your game a little better with a point here and there. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[EnderFFX]

"It's not going to get much more profitable than getting called with KJ here. And there's no chance in hell the BB is folding if the SB does, so your (1) is a moot point.

And it's really hard to put a number on how often the SB is folding here, since he's obviously willing to call a push with shitty hands. If he calls me with ANY two, the number is about $59."

Ok, I agree about Push, Fold, Fold. However, I have seen situations where 4th place blinded himself down to 50-100 chips in situations such as that. It's dumb but it happens.

Second, SB, is not pushing with any two cards (unless he is a complete maniac). And there are many situations in which AQs is very profitable.

AQ vs KQ
AQ vs QJ
AQ vs AT.
AQ vs QT (doubtful)

Any other non-pair situations and you are favored with two cards above both of his. I'm pushing in that situation everytime, unless the BB is forced all in, and then I'm just straight calling.

And mathematically it looks like I'm wrong, I just still feel like there is some other factor that is missing that makes the push closer to correct then you believe.

[Scuba Chuck]

You are posting a good learning point, which is about MAKING MONEY, not who has the best PF hand. Second of all, I agree that it was not a wise move on the SBs part to call. Unfortunately, I routinely see this type of poor play up to the $22s. I have not yet seen this at the $33s.

I have made this mistake a few times (which is where you learn the most - making mistakes) to where I now bet the amount of the BB stack (assuming he's small stacked) vs. limping. And if the SB calls, which is more likely considering your case, you will have better information on what to do post flop.

Limping gives too much of a sign of weakness. If you limp with AQ and are raised now what? Fold I guess. I only limp at this stage with AA, KK &amp; maybe QQ - trying to trap.

Summing it up: Don't limp, but bet 3-4xBB or the amount of the players stack that you're challenging (usually the BB)

[EnderFFX]

I don't know though. It's these situations where sometimes you get busted but other times, when the situation goes to your favor, takes you from possibly winning to probably winning.

And then the follow up question:

Which hands do you fold because of the 4th place short stack, and are you giving up too much EV by not calling with AK?

And another question, are these points worth this much consideration? Is the EV difference that significant or is this a type of play that doesn't do too much to your EV but affects your variance greatly?

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, there’s four possible scenarios here. I’m making the following assumptions:

The Small blind is putting his whole stack in preflop (which he obviously wanted to)

For ease of calculations, I’m assigning the big blind a hand – I’m putting him on undercards, which isn’t too big of a stretch. He’s getting 8h 6d, I had Ac Qc, and the small blind had Ks Jc.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is a nonsensical way to analyze the hand. Did SB show you his cards before you made a move?

eastbay

[The Venetian]

I'd still like to see someone put a value on Push-Fold-Call. It's certainly higher than folding here.

Also, I'd like to see the opponents' cards be assumed "random" with a program like Poker Stove instead of an arbitrary middle-of-the-road assignment.

Once we determine the value of Push-Fold-Call, then we can pinpoint the percentage of times that the SB would have to fold to make it more/less profitable than just folding. To be honest, I would imagine it's fairly reasonable, in the 60-75% range.

I'm actually kind of pissed I have to go home and can't do this for a few hours. It would be an interesting exercise.

If you can trust the SB, and I don't know that you can, limping would appear to be the best course of action, forcing the little guy to beat two hands, but 600 chips is a fair amount to be throwing around here.

But, I don't think it's really an $8 decision. It's closer than that.

[david050173]

Calling seems like clearly the best play. If the SB comes over the top preflop and the BB folds, you have an easy fold. Imgaine instead of having a bad hand to call with, the BB had AA,KK,QQ? You can't go around see monsters but you don't need to walk into them either. In this hand there is huge value to you to get those 600 chips out of the BB stack and into any other stack. You still have plenty of chips so that you can wait a bit and see how things develop. If the BB had like 1500-2000 chips, I think pushing would be my play.

[Mr_J]

If I'd won I think I probally would've come first (say 66%). If I waited for shortstack to blind out I'd be shorter than chip leader by 1k (not exactly alot) and equal with the other guy so maybe 1st-3rd 35-40-25

Assuming those %s, I'd profit $75 on average (after buy-in, and assuming I'm 60-40 that hand).

By folding, my EV using those %s is $117.5.

Now those are guess numbers, but doubling up wouldn't have put me THAT far in front, and folding would still have me in around equal 2nd.

I don't need to go for first here since I've already got a decent shot at it (I'm not shortstacked).

Had I folded, shortstack would've all-in'd, button called and knocked him out. Either that or shortstack would be left on $300.