Burno
12-22-2004, 06:34 AM
Most of us understand that poker is a long term game and that the long run takes a long time to reach. However, over the course of several years it is very easy to reach the long run as far as ring games are concerned.
Now obviously this doesn't hold true for large field MTT's. From my understanding, it's impossible to reach the long run in an average career(live tournaments). So luck must play a part, but how big?
So here's my problem. If someone more mathematically inclined than I could assist me I would be quite appreciative.
Player A is 1.5 times as good as the average player
Player B is 2.0 times as good as the average player
Assuming the average field is 500, what is the likelihood that Player A will have a more successful career(wins and final tables) than Player B? Let's assume a career is 300 events. What about if it were over only 100 tournaments? 50?
I'm not sure if this can be calculated, but I'm interested to hear any thoughts on it nonetheless. Thanks.
Now obviously this doesn't hold true for large field MTT's. From my understanding, it's impossible to reach the long run in an average career(live tournaments). So luck must play a part, but how big?
So here's my problem. If someone more mathematically inclined than I could assist me I would be quite appreciative.
Player A is 1.5 times as good as the average player
Player B is 2.0 times as good as the average player
Assuming the average field is 500, what is the likelihood that Player A will have a more successful career(wins and final tables) than Player B? Let's assume a career is 300 events. What about if it were over only 100 tournaments? 50?
I'm not sure if this can be calculated, but I'm interested to hear any thoughts on it nonetheless. Thanks.