NFL Week 4

Some interesting lines this week..


Cincy +6 to the Steelers..

I guess Cincinatti lost a lot of respect last week in the loss to SD, but I don't think this line is quite right.. Pittsburgh is getting a lot of credit for beating a Buffalo team that is probably one of the worst in the league (without Cowart).. I was expecting the line to be close to 2.5 or 3.. Anybody else think that also??


San Diego -3 to Cleveland..

I guess I'm still stuck in the old mindset that the Browns suck.. But I wouldn't bet against the Chargers.. Flutie and this whole team has something to prove this season.. As long as the D can stay injury free, I see them as a legitimate contender this season..


NY Jets - 3.5 to Bills..

The Jets may not be a 500 team this season, but Buffalo will be lucky to come out with even a few wins.. They have shown no passion whatsoever this year, and I can't see any reason for it to change.. I also expect this line to move a little bit.. Anyone agree??


Oakland -19 to Dallas..

Just thought it was funny to see it so high.. At this height, I think it's best just to stay away from the game entirely..


These seem to be the strong plays of the week to me, but I'm still pondering it a little bit.. Any thoughts would be appreciated..

Detroit +11.5


PG

Cincy +6 to the Steelers..


I also like Cincy here. Steelers have tough defense, but offense will have trouble scoring enough points to cover.


San Diego -3 to Cleveland


I'd stay away. With these two defenses, this game is likely to be decided by a field goal.


NY Jets -3.5 to Bills


You should be careful of laying points on the road in a divisional game. The Bills may be bad, but so are the Jets and it's tough to win in the nfl if you can't stop the run.


Oakland -19 to Dallas


Wow, 19 points in an nfl game. What a joke. I don't know what to make of this game.


PG

Miami -9.5

Denver -10

Cincy +6

Denver -10 seems to me to be the worst bet possible. In fact, I am strongly tempted to take KC +10. Remember, Denver got swept by KC last year. And this year KC is better, while Denver is probably a little weaker.


Also, 10 pts is a little extreme. These division rivals always have close games. It's very rare for one to beat the other by 10 pts or more. I don't have the historical information in front of me, but I bet in the last ten years they have finished with a 10 pt spread less than 20% of the time.


I expect this game to be won in the last 2 minutes.


natedogg

"And this year KC is better, while Denver is probably a little weaker. "


I would not agree with either statement.


At worst, I think Denver is just as good...and probablyy better (did Griese play both games last year? and the improved D with Rhodes and no letup in personnel)


I don't see KC being better or worse than last year. In fact, I think it is possible they are slightly worse off for this year, but better off for the future as the team gets into the system. All they've beaten is Washington, and that doesn't say much.


However, I am not saying DEN -10 is a good wager...that's a big number for a big divisional rivalry, just that I don't think KC +10 is a layup that you make it sound.

Can you explain this pick? Detroit has given me no reason to believe they can stay within two touchdowns of St Louis. They lost by 22 to GB and they lost by 10 to Cleveland. Ty Detmer doesn't look to me like he'll get the job done vs. St. Louis.


I've seen a couple other prognosticators take this as a good bet and I'd sure like to know why.


My two guesses are:

Home opener

They beat St. Louis is '99.


I think those are good enough reasons tp pass on St. Louis, but they certainly don't swing me over to wanting to place a bet on Detroit.


natedogg

Pit has had a hard time winning at home for the past few years. There's no real home field advantage apparent for this team.


Kordell is just awful, and will always be awful. I never had faith in him and I can't believe Cowher is so blind to this. Then again, spotting QB talent has never been Cowher's strong point.


+6 is a lot for PIT to cover with no offense. However, I truly believe Cincy got lucky against Bal and beating New England wasn't all that impressive. Cincy is slightly better than they used to be, but they haven't improved by much and I expect them to show their true colors this week and throughout the season. Kitna's true colors will show as well. He is weak.


This is a battle of the bad teams, and I think it's a risky bet. That said, if I had to place a bet on this game, I'd go with Cincy +6.


Comments?


natedogg

I was reading something last Friday. It said that high turnover games tended to skew the results and the lines for the next week.


I'm thinking that Detroit may not be as bad as they appear after two games. Detmer had 7 interceptions...do you think the offensive coordinator will allow that to happen again? I imagine they will be running a more conservative, chew up the clock offense this week to avoid turnovers.


Meanwhile, St. Louis had the exact opposite type of results. Last week, they thoroughly demolished Miami on the scoreboard. But is that indicative of their actual skill? Is St. Louis really that good or did Fiedler's 4 turnovers (2 fumbles) skew the results?


Personally, I think St. Louis -11.5 is a trap bet. It seems so obvious that you wonder how the line could be even that low. I don't know that much about handicapping, but I know to avoid trap bets. Besides, this is the NFL. As bad as you might think Detroit is, or as good as you think St. Louis is, parity is still king (proven 3 times this year) and 11.5 pts is too much to lay on the road.


Just my opinion.


Mojay

nt

I agree 10 is alot of points to give, especially in a divisional rivalry like this, but Denver is a powerhouse and overall a great team to take against the spread.


Shanahan likes to score and score alot, especially after losing to Baltimore last week. Look for Griese to explode and the Denver defense to easily contain Kansas City's weak running game.


PG

I'm not sticking any extra $ on it, but since I am forced to pick it for my office pool, I am taking Detroit and the 11.5 points. So, I wouldn't say I am confident, but I do believe Detroit has a greater than 50% chance to cover.


Mojay