View Full Version : Quick EV question
Falker11
12-21-2004, 08:13 PM
I just want to know if I did my math correct on this problem. Suppose I have a 25% chance of hitting a winner, and when I hit this winner I get payed 3x my bet. So suppose I am playing $10 bets. I would make 20/4 - 30/4 = -10/4 = $2.50 lost per bet. Is my calculation here correct. If not what did I do wrong?
Falker
gaming_mouse
12-21-2004, 08:36 PM
No.
EV = (1/4)*30 + (3/4)*(-10) = 0.
This is a fair bet.
gm
dtbog
12-22-2004, 05:28 PM
Original poster is right if the bettor doesn't get his $10 back.
(0.25) * (+$20) + (0.75) * (-$10) = -$2.5
gaming_mouse is right if the payout is actually $40 - i.e., the original $10, plus the $30 prize.
-DB
SossMan
12-22-2004, 07:57 PM
Not fair.
you are getting paid 2:1 on a 3:1 shot.
vBulletin® v3.8.11, Copyright ©2000-2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.