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View Full Version : JJ, turn decision.


Entity
12-21-2004, 07:00 PM
Who calls? Who raises? Villain is 68/5.2PFR/1.62Ag so far, seems a bit LAG.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (11.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, UTG+2 folds, Hero...

Jonny Melon
12-21-2004, 07:08 PM
I'd call it down unimproved, personally. If a heart hits on the river, and villain bets, there is a fine line between raising or calling.

wuwei
12-21-2004, 07:12 PM
I think raising here would be bad. After UTG+2 folds, I don't think you have a good enough read on your opponent to believe a raise is +EV.

Avatar
12-21-2004, 07:26 PM
I hate these situations. LAGs get as many good hands as anybody else. If that turn card was a non-heart I think I lay it down..his stats don't indicate a maniac. Now that the turn card is a heart, I call. Raise a heart on the river or call a non-heart due to sheer pot size.

lil'
12-21-2004, 07:37 PM
I'd call here. You've done a good job representing an overpair and he keeps coming. It's heads-up now, so let's see the river.

lil'
12-21-2004, 07:39 PM
If that turn card was a non-heart I think I lay it down

Nooooo, don't do that.

private joker
12-21-2004, 08:33 PM
I don't know. I think laying down a non-heart river is fine. He's getting odds to call the turn, but I don't see any hands he really beats. He was ahead of PPs like TT earlier, but now on the turn he's even behind that. I don't see anyone other than a maniac playing overcards this strong, and even that's pushing it unless he has like the A/images/graemlins/heart.gif

uw_madtown
12-21-2004, 09:13 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I don't know. I think laying down a non-heart river is fine. He's getting odds to call the turn, but I don't see any hands he really beats. He was ahead of PPs like TT earlier, but now on the turn he's even behind that. I don't see anyone other than a maniac playing overcards this strong, and even that's pushing it unless he has like the A/images/graemlins/heart.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Except he said a non-heart TURN, meaning that if the opponent bet out on a turn card that didn't make a flush possible, he'd fold (thinking the opponent had? 87? a set?).

Raise-call a non-heart turn. Since this was a heart turn card, call down (improved or unimproved, IMO).

lil'
12-21-2004, 10:14 PM
You can't fold an overpair against a LAG player to a turn bet. At least wait until a check-raise before you think about folding. A bet could be an lot of things.

Entity
12-22-2004, 04:09 PM
I called down and he tabled 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif5/images/graemlins/spade.gif and MHIG. My read was adjusted.

dfscott
12-22-2004, 04:28 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I called down and he tabled 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif5/images/graemlins/spade.gif and MHIG. My read was adjusted.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have seen this a lot lately. LAGs betting any pocket pair like they're rockets. I laid down the best hand two or three times before I resolved to start calling down TPTK against these nuts.

SCfuji
12-22-2004, 04:41 PM
for your survey: i raise.

Entity
12-22-2004, 04:47 PM
[ QUOTE ]
for your survey: i raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
I honestly think raising here, even against a LAG, is probably too much. All I've got is an overpair, and I'd hate to see a 3-bet.

Rob

wuwei
12-22-2004, 04:59 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I called down and he tabled 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif5/images/graemlins/spade.gif and MHIG. My read was adjusted.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the key. Based on the stats you had, I wouldn't have imagined he'd be the type of guy to raise 55 UTG+1. Nor did those stats scream that his post flop play would be that horrible. Erring on the side of caution with small samples of PT data is a good thing, I think. Like you said, now you adjust your read and play this guy accordingly next time.