Flop a mid-set on a draw-heavy board...what would you do?

[Garland]

The table is fairly loose and aggressive. I opted to check the flop and see what develops. The button bet seems to be the "standard bet on the button" when everyone checks to the button. I don't know what to make of the check-raise by BB as well as the cold-call by UTG+1.

All I do know is, UTG+1 is very loose and aggressive:

38.21 VPIP with a 7.97 PF raise.

UTG+1 is also very capable of betting big with bluffs (although I really have no evidence of it as he's never called down). How do you proceed?

Garland

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

CO ($196)
Button ($682)
SB ($221)
BB ($208)
UTG ($140)
UTG+1 ($120.50)
MP1 ($582)
Garland ($287)
MP3 ($197)

Preflop: Garland is MP2 with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Garland calls $2, MP3 calls $2, CO calls $2, Button calls $2, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($14) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Garland checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $10</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $20</font>, UTG+1 calls $20, Garland ????

[AZK]

If UTG+1 is a lag, than it is wierd that he just coldcalled the minraise, seems like he might be on a draw or already have the nuts. I would probably raise to $80 or so and take it from there. I'm more interested in the BB/UTG+1 than the button. If they call, than I'd probably go all in on any brick on the turn. If a heart or straight card hits than I'm probably checking and calling a decent sized turn bet in the hopes of filling up. Hope it worked out.

[Wayfare]

Make it $80, call a push, and push on a non-scare card turn.

Edit: Crazy, AZK and I said the exact same thing.

[AZK]

Hopefully this means that this is the right way of thinking about a hand like this...

[Garland]

I'm sure to the surprise of a lot of people, I folded the flop. Here's my thought process:

Perhaps I should have bet the flop myself to get a feeler, but I didn't, so I have to go based on how the action comes around:

I don't like the fact that there's a check-raiser and a cold-caller of the check-raise and a person left to act with the cold-caller being a very aggressive bluffing type of player. So when it's my turn I go through my options:

Call: I don't like the feeling of calling, not closing the action, chanting for one of the seven fuzzy boat/quad cards to turn, having 3 other players drawing against me (or already made) and 15 million turn cards scare me out of the pot (ok, ok, any 3s, 4s, 8s, 9s or hearts...that makes 23 scare cards out of the remaining 47 unseen cards).

Raise: I can take the initiative here and perhaps separate the contenders from the pretenders. However, if I re-raise a decent amount to punish the drawers (say $80) and someone goes over the top again and goes all-in or puts me all-in, I'd be obligated to push getting about $349:$205 (at worst if the person who goes over has me covered) on my money and pray for the board to pair knowing I have about 35% pot equity against any form of a straight. I don't like going broke in an unraised pot.

Fold: I've put $2 into the pot so far (I know I'm not supposed to look at it like that but...), and I have too much interest from my opposition. I cannot find a decent play to find out where I'm at without almost pot committing myself. Do I really want to duke it out when I only have the 52nd nut and a ton of possible scare cards on the turn? Answer: Not really. FOLD it is.

Maybe someone would care to comment on my "logic"?

As it turns out, I folded, and the button called. The turn brought on offsuit 3, but everyone checked. The river paired the seven and the cold-caller bluffer type player fired a heavy shot on the river that went uncalled.

Garland

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO ($196)
Button ($682)
SB ($221)
BB ($208)
UTG ($140)
UTG+1 ($120.50)
MP1 ($582)
Garland ($287)
MP3 ($197)

Preflop: Garland is MP2 with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Garland calls $2, MP3 calls $2, CO calls $2, Button calls $2, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($14) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Garland checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $10</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $20</font>, UTG+1 calls $20, Garland folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button calls $10.

Turn: ($74) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Button checks.

River: ($74) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $74</font>, Button folds, BB folds.

Final Pot: $148

[soah]

You're getting such a nice price to fill up plus implied odds; you can't really fold here even if you think you're behind.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Unless you are sure you are behind top set, which is just an impossible read. If you think that you are likely against two pair, however, that also takes away at least two and more probably 4 outs (if one of the pairs is a seven) then you have worse odds to call. I think it is important to think about what hands the other two guys could have in order to determine your outs since some of them could quite possibly be taken.

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
You're getting such a nice price to fill up plus implied odds; you can't really fold here even if you think you're behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm getting 64:20 on filling up when the odds of filling/quadding on the turn are only 40:7. But you're right, I'm getting very nice implied odds against a flush and/or straights that get there when I fill up or quad. But I also think that the case against calling is the 23 scare cards that come on the turn to spoil my hand. To be honest I'm a bit torn on this now...

I'd probably call in a heart beat if I were closing the action. I believe that was a consideration, but perhaps I've seen one too many monsters under the bed.

Garland

[lapoker17]

This doesn't solve all of your problems, but I think you need to lead the flop here - even overbet it. I just hate giving up control of the hand when I could very well be in front.

[soah]

At a loose-aggressive table it's impossible to know you're beaten on this flop with this action. While you only have seven outs to fill up, there are also many other safe cards that could come on the turn and let you shut out the draws.