Bubble disaster

[Turk]

What does everyone think about this one?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t2410)
BB (t1020)
Hero (t1870)
Button (t2700)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t700</font>, Button folds, SB calls t550, BB folds.

Flop: (t1700) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t800</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1170 (All-In)</font>, SB calls t370.

Turn: (t4040) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t4040) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t4040

[UMTerp]

Push or fold preflop, leaning towards push.

Given that you did only raise to 700, obviously the flop play is fine.

Why only raise to 700 though? Did you want action? (No.) Were you planning on folding to a reraise? (No.) Put all your chips in yourself, and put your opponents to the more difficult decision.

[betgo]

This was a disaster? Did your opponent have QQ, JJ, or 66?

I would just push on a semibluff with a small pair 4-handed preflop. It's real hard to play postflop if you don't make a set. Just push and pray no one calls you with a bigger pair.

[Turk]

6 6 = the disaster

[ericlambi]

I don't hate this play. Of course if someone comes back over the top, he's probably committed to the hand because of the pot-odds unless he can put the player on a higher PP with a lot of confidence. As-is, he put all his money in with far and away the best hand, which is the best you can hope for. Pushing pre-flop wouldn't have been the same in this regard. The downside is, if he misses the flop and the SB bets out the same way -- if the OP decides to let go, he has to pick up the blinds at least once out of the next two hands. That's a pretty desparate situation, no fun.

What I think is odd is the SBs play. The chance that he was beat unimproved on that flop seems pretty high with QJ on the board, so if he was going to pull that maneuver, I'm not sure why he didn't push in the first place.

Here's my question . . . do you think that going all-in here significantly increases the odds that the SB folds?

I'm not certain it does, but would like to hear from others with more experience. If it does indeed increase the odds significantly, then pushing is the correct play here.

Anyway, if anyone is interested in what I would have done, I would have folded unless players have been really tight. According to the post for pushing against random calling hands, 44 is a loser. In this situation, where I'm not desparately short stacked, I'm probably only pushing with the winners from this list. I suppose this could be a weak play, but he won't even be the short stack if he goes through the blinds once more here. Is there anything wrong with this thought process?

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
What I think is odd is the SBs play. The chance that he was beat unimproved on that flop seems pretty high with QJ on the board, so if he was going to pull that maneuver, I'm not sure why he didn't push in the first place.


[/ QUOTE ]

His play is perfect if he's decided he's playing the hand (which is debatable). He's (correctly) assuming that the original raiser isn't going to fold to a push preflop, and is running the ol' stop and go. He's got a decent change to beat 77-TT this way, and might get a hand like AK to incorrectly fold on the flop.

[ericlambi]

Hmm . . . I see your thought process here and it makes a lot of sense. I guess this is why I am still learning. I have never tried this trick -- maybe I'll give it a shot some time.

Assuming the SB was really as smart as you are assuming, and this was his plan all along, are there any flops with which he will NOT bet out? And why didn't he push? And why did he call after he didn't push? He has to call ~300 more into a ~3000 pot, which is 10-1. But when he is raised he has to know the only way he is winning is to hit a 6 and he won't hit that nearly 1 in 11. Folding leaves him tied with the SS, which gives him a decent shot at cashing. Calling and losing is big trouble though.

[Irieguy]

Once you have 10 BB or less, it is impossible for you to hold two cards and raise an amount such that it would be correct for you to fold to an all-in reraise. In other words, once you are a short stack... if you raise, you race.

So the only benefit of raising less than all-in is to give your opponents an opportunity to come over the top of you if they mistakenly think they have folding equity. So, if you have AA or KK you can try this this and see if somebody bites. By doing this, you also give them the chance to stop-and-go against you. Knowing this, you also need to call a flop bet no matter what. So, you only want to be in that situation with a premium hand.

Otherwise, it's push or fold time. Here, you should push. You will get called by 66 every time and you will lose 80% of those hands. Mark it 4th on your spreadsheet and start your next game.

Irieguy

[morgan180]

[ QUOTE ]
Mark it 4th on your spreadsheet and start your next game.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think that if there is one thing that i would say is the most valuable thing I have learned is the above.

Once I stopped thinking about SNGs as individual games that I *had* to win, and adjusted my thinking to playing over a set period of time and looking at my ROI, Hourly Rate, etc. over that period of time my results got much better.

You don't tilt [as much] because each game isn't life or death for you, it's more like a hand in a ring game, if you play well and lose, like in the example above, well - move on, get the next one going and get past it.

I play 2 or 3 at once and it completely helps this unnecessary life or death for one SNG mind set, and in turn, I believe, improves your play and results dramatically. Further it gives you an edge over the people that ARE playing SNGs as life or death for each one. You are able to really kick in the aggression in the later levels and put yourself in a much better position to win.

[ericlambi]

[ QUOTE ]

Otherwise, it's push or fold time. Here, you should push. You will get called by 66 every time and you will lose 80% of those hands. Mark it 4th on your spreadsheet and start your next game.
Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

In your experience, what percentage of times will you bust out with 44 here?

Whatever it is, you are going to bust out more often than you are going to double-up, which seems unacceptable to me. Does anyone believe there might be a play in this situation that is greater EV/ROI than push with 44? How aggressive would the other players have to be before you are folding here? How tight would they have to be before you are putting in that 2.5BB raise trying to take down the pot without risking your whole tournament?

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
Whatever it is, you are going to bust out more often than you are going to double-up, which seems unacceptable to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not true. You're probably going to steal the blinds more than half the time. And of the half you don't, you'll get called with overcards maybe 60% of those times, which you're (barely) ahead of. And you'll be a 4:1 dog maybe 20% of the time you make this push.

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone believe there might be a play in this situation that is greater EV/ROI than push with 44?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, and was mentioned before, any raise you're putting in pot-commits you. You HAVE to push if you're playing this hand to put the pressure on your opponents.

[ QUOTE ]
How aggressive would the other players have to be before you are folding here?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's hard to put a quantifiable number on it, but if you feel that the stacks are aggressive enough to bust each other in the next orbit, you could find a fold here. You have to be pretty darn sure of yourself though.

Folding too much is one of the biggest mistakes you can make on the bubble.

[Irieguy]

I agree with UMTerp 100%.

Irieguy

[morgan180]

I have to agree with Terp, you are winning ALOT more than you are busting with a push here.

Also I think that the MORE aggressive players play the more likely I'd be to push here as if I get called by a LAG I probably have an even better chance of winning. I can see a lag call with additional hands that wouldn't mind being up against, in particular 1 over card hands that have 3 outs to win.

[Turk]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding too much is one of the biggest mistakes you can make on the bubble.


[/ QUOTE ]

Could you elaborate on this please. Is there a correct balance between folding, betting and pushing on the bubble?
I would have to look closer to be sure, but I am reasonably certain I am pushing more than I am betting but may be folding too much.