Axo

[Stork]

Playin a little .05/.10 at Pacific.
The game is 4-handed.

Hero is SB with A /images/graemlins/spade.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Preflop: UTG calls, button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop:3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif5 /images/graemlins/club.gif
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets, button calls, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG folds, button calls (all-in).

Turn:5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

River:8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Good play?

[wabe]

You should fold Axo preflop, even from the SB.

The c/r is an interesting play; I personally wouldn't have the guts to do that here. Any A with a higher kicker has you beat, and any 5 has you beat.

Did you lose to fives over threes?

[Peter Harris]

if button was so short stacked yes, you got a good price for 2 cards.

[Smasharoo]

This is essntially just a bluff. Fold it PF. It's a good play if everyone folds so, no.

[Stork]

[ QUOTE ]
You should fold Axo preflop, even from the SB.

[/ QUOTE ]

In a 4-handed game, I'd expect this to be the best hand before the flop, and I don't like folding the best hand, especially getting a discount price. When it's 3 or 4 handed, alot of the time I'll raise Axo if I have position. Since I didn't, I just called here.

[Stork]

[ QUOTE ]
if button was so short stacked yes, you got a good price for 2 cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would've made this play regardless of button's stack. I actually didn't even realize he was short-stacked until he called.

[mistrpug]

[ QUOTE ]
You should fold Axo preflop, even from the SB.

[/ QUOTE ]

You fold A7 from the SB in a 4 handed game? Yuck.

[Yads]

Are you guys crazy? The game is 4 handed. A7o is probably the best hand out there.

[Stork]

I'm sure everybody's dying of suspense, so I'll reveal now that My Hand Was Goot.


[ QUOTE ]
This is essntially just a bluff. Fold it PF. It's a good play if everyone folds so, no.

[/ QUOTE ]
I didn't checkraise as a bluff, I checkraised thinking I had the best hand. You think a 355 board is really gunna hit anybody? And as I said before, I'm not folding the best hand preflop.

[Smasharoo]

I didn't checkraise as a bluff, I checkraised thinking I had the best hand. You think a 355 board is really gunna hit anybody? And as I said before, I'm not folding the best hand preflop.


I think you were lucky. Congratulations, though, don't spend the quarter all in one place.

[Stork]

How was I lucky?

[Smasharoo]

How was I lucky?


You check raised A high into that flop and happened to have the best hand. You were lucky the person betting into it didn't have a 3 or a 5 or 44 or whatever. Whatever. Do it 100 times and let me know how often you're good there.

[elitegimp]

[ QUOTE ]


How was I lucky?


You check raised A high into that flop and happened to have the best hand. You were lucky the person betting into it didn't have a 3 or a 5 or 44 or whatever. Whatever. Do it 100 times and let me know how often you're good there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you missed the 4 posts above yours (including the original post) mentioning that this is 4 handed? Because there are only 4 people dealt hands pre-flop, not 10. (Since this is 4 handed, not a full table.)

[Smasharoo]

Have you missed the 4 posts above yours (including the original post) mentioning that this is 4 handed? Because there are only 4 people dealt hands pre-flop, not 10. (Since this is 4 handed, not a full table.)


No, I didn't miss it. Four to the flop doesn't somehow magically mean it hits no one. In fact, more times than not, it DOES hit someone. Even an oddball flop like this one.

Playing four handed means you can lower your starting hand requirements, it doesn't mean that when four people see the flop they're less likely to be hit by it.

If the argument is that A9o is the best hand PF, fine. Not raising PF is a blunder here. You give up 3 SB by not raising the best hand PF and exchange it for 1 SB on the flop with a pointless CR?

[Stork]

No, I didn't miss it. Four to the flop doesn't somehow magically mean it hits no one. In fact, more times than not, it DOES hit someone. Even an oddball flop like this one.

I really doubt that, but I've never run any actual simulations, so I can't say for sure.

Playing four handed means you can lower your starting hand requirements, it doesn't mean that when four people see the flop they're less likely to be hit by it.

It's much less likely that a flop hits a field of 4 than a field of 7...

If the argument is that A9o is the best hand PF, fine. Not raising PF is a blunder here. You give up 3 SB by not raising the best hand PF and exchange it for 1 SB on the flop with a pointless CR?

I think just calling is OK because a)My edge is relatively small preflop, and I think I gain more in postflop play by letting this small edge slide, and b)I have worst position for the whole hand, which detracts from the hands overall EV.
The point of the flop c/r was to protect my probably best hand.

[Smasharoo]

I think just calling is OK because a)My edge is relatively small preflop, and I think I gain more in postflop play by letting this small edge slide, and b)I have worst position for the whole hand, which detracts from the hands overall EV.
The point of the flop c/r was to protect my probably best hand.


Makes no sense. Would you not raise AQ in the SB in a 10 handed game, but check raise this flop with it if three people ahd limped to it?

[Stork]

I agree AQ is a raise from the sb, but AQ has a much larger preflop edge, and missing a raise against that many opponents can't be made up postflop. In my situation, my hand is signifigantly weaker than AQ, and there are less opponents, so not raising is giving up far less EV.

[wabe]

You know, I completely skipped over that part. I apologize.

I will have to look at this in my game, as I don't believe I would make that adjustment to my starting hands when playing against fewer opponents. Hmm.

[Smasharoo]

I agree AQ is a raise from the sb, but AQ has a much larger preflop edge, and missing a raise against that many opponents can't be made up postflop. In my situation, my hand is signifigantly weaker than AQ, and there are less opponents, so not raising is giving up far less EV.


It's the same number of opponents in either situation. The only diffrence being we can expect the average hand of the two limpers to be better in a ten handed game, so your edge with AQ is likely proportional to your edge with A9.

Why would you not raise the hand preflop where you're convinced it's best, yet check raise a flop where you have no clue if it's hit anyone? The chance of someone having K3 or J5s or whatever is clearly higher among 4 people to a flop in a 4 seated game than it is among 4 people to a flop in a ten handed game. If anything it's MORE likely here that someone's hit this flop than it would be in a ten handed game

You give up your pot equity advantage PF by not raising when you likley have the best of it, but then check raise this flop to protect your ace high?

That seems like the best way to play this to you?

[Stork]

so your edge with AQ is likely proportional to your edge with A9.

I dunno about that. Obviously AQ is better short-handed than in a full game, but I still think that AQ is a much better hand than A9, even with A9 (or A7) in a 4-handed game.

Why would you not raise the hand preflop where you're convinced it's best, yet check raise a flop where you have no clue if it's hit anyone? The chance of someone having K3 or J5s or whatever is clearly higher among 4 people to a flop in a 4 seated game than it is among 4 people to a flop in a ten handed game. If anything it's MORE likely here that someone's hit this flop than it would be in a ten handed game

I'd expect to be ahead on this flop probably about half the time.

You give up your pot equity advantage PF by not raising when you likley have the best of it, but then check raise this flop to protect your ace high?

Yup.

That seems like the best way to play this to you?

[/ QUOTE ]

[Smasharoo]

I'd expect to be ahead on this flop probably about half the time.


Any reasoning behind that or is it just sort of a guess?

[Stork]

It's just an estimate, but on a flop of 355, I'm only behind a 5, which is unlikely with 2 already out there, a 3, again unlikely because there aren't many players, and even at the .05/.10 limits, must people will fold T3, and I'm behind to a better Ace. I'm also behind to pocket pairs. I'm ahead of all other hands, which really is a large amount of hands. And against all of those hands except trip 5's I still have 3-6 outs if I am behind.
UTG's bet could easily be a bluff on such a ragged board as this one. The buttons call detered me slightly, but not enough to dissuade me from raising.

[Smasharoo]

It's just an estimate, but on a flop of 355, I'm only behind a 5, which is unlikely with 2 already out there, a 3, again unlikely because there aren't many players, and even at the .05/.10 limits, must people will fold T3, and I'm behind to a better Ace. I'm also behind to pocket pairs. I'm ahead of all other hands, which really is a large amount of hands. And against all of those hands except trip 5's I still have 3-6 outs if I am behind.
UTG's bet could easily be a bluff on such a ragged board as this one. The buttons call detered me slightly, but not enough to dissuade me from raising.


It's better than 50/50 that someone has a 3, a 5, a pocket pair or a better ace, but anyway...

What do you estimate your chances of winning the hand are PF?

How often do you think you win 4 handed with A9 preflop?

[Stork]

It's better than 50/50 that someone has a 3, a 5, a pocket pair or a better ace, but anyway...

Do you have any math to prove this? I haven't done the math to prove otherwise, but intuitively, this seems wrong.

What do you estimate your chances of winning the hand are PF?

How often do you think you win 4 handed with A9 preflop?

I had A7 btw, and I'd guess maybe like 30-35% of the time? I dunno.

[Smasharoo]

Do you have any math to prove this? I haven't done the math to prove otherwise, but intuitively, this seems wrong.


Sure, there are 5 cards you know about, and 47 you don't. Leaving pocket pairs aside, for the moment, there are 5 cards that hit this board, right? The odds of any one of the six cards your opponents hold being one of those 5 cards is exactly the same as the odds of someone hitting a 5 outer on the turn, right? Same amount of information, same chance.

Hitting a 5 outer is about 10% so it's 60% likely that someone has a 5 or a 3 assuming they play any two cards, which seems pretty likely at this limit, this shorthanded.

Add to that the likelyhood someone was delt a pocket pair, which is about 15%, actually a little higher and you can see where I'm coming from here, I think.

[Stork]

The chance that someone holds a five is about 2/47+2/47=4/47. The chance that someone holds a three is about 3/47+3/47=6/47.
The chance that someone holds a better ace is about 3/47*28/47=1.5/47.
The chance that someone holds a pocket pair is about 10/47*3/47=.5
Add em up and I get that there is about a 12/47 chance that I'm behind on the flop...

[Smasharoo]

The chance that someone holds a five is about 2/47+2/47=4/47. The chance that someone holds a three is about 3/47+3/47=6/47.
The chance that someone holds a better ace is about 3/47*28/47=1.5/47.
The chance that someone holds a pocket pair is about 10/47*3/47=.5
Add em up and I get that there is about a 12/47 chance that I'm behind on the flop...


Um no. Your math is horrible.


The chance that someone holds a five is about 2/47+2/47=4/47.


That's the chance that one SPECIFIC person holds a five. There are three people who could, not one. Your math would be ok if you were heads up, but you're not.

So 2/47 + 2/47 + 2/47 + 2/47 + 2/47 + 2/47 = 12/47,
3/47 + 3/47 + 3/47 + 3/47 + 3/47 + 3/47 = 18/47,

etc.

No wonder you thought you were ahead most of the time /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Stork]

Yeah I did forget to account for the other 3, but it's still lower than just multiplying all those probabilities by 3.