99 v. UTG raise

[wuwei]

Villian appears to be a tight, aggressive player. This table has 45% VP$IP, and I know a little thing like calling two cold isn't going to stop the people behind me from seeing this flop.

Thoughts on my line here?
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, BB folds.

Flop: (11.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Button folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: (7.75 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.75 BB

[Harv72b]

Looks standard to me, given your read on UTG &amp; confidence that at least one player will call behind you.

I might have tried a bet on the turn, hoping that UTG was either on AQ or QQ-TT w/o a diamond and would fold...if he calls, he probably checks the blank river to you, so either way you're spending 1 BB to get to the showdown. There's the chance of a c/r, though, and against a TAG I can see checking through.

[wuwei]

Well, I guess this one wasn't very interesting.

Folding the flop didn't seem like an option, with all the loose people behind me. Raising would have been foolish.

Great flop, easy raise. Suprisingly, I managed to get heads up.

Turn card wasn't cool, I thought checking behind for a cheap showdown was clearly the play.

Villian had KQs, and MHING. Oh bother.

[Fat Nicky]

I'd rather bet the turn and check behind on the river her rather than give a free river card to an opponenent that could have something like AQ.

[MVicuna]

Hi,

Fold or reraise preflop. Your position on the raiser will make it so that if you hit your set you'll be driving out all the action behind you. Just because they normally have have a VPIP of 45 doesn't mean they are going to be CC here.

Later,
MarkV.

[runa]

If I were playing this I'd probably 3-bet PF and play it similarly postflop. This line is ok, but you don't want people to catch miracle cards, like a 5x on this flop. I think if anyone is stupid enough to CC 3 with crappy cards you're forcing them to make a costly error PF that adds up to huge profits in the long run.

Post flop I think you do have to bet the turn, and probably fold to a CR.

[eric5148]

I totally disagree with the fold or 3bet mentality. He knows the people behind him will call, which means he's getting the multiway pot that PPs need. It wouldn't be that bad a play to cold call 22 here.

If you 3bet to get it HU, you're just putting yourself in a slightly ahead or way behind situation.

[eric5148]

Only thing I don't like is not betting the turn.

[marching_on_together]

Everyone seems to like your pre-flop call, but i'm going to diagree. You have to be super confident your going to get the required number of callers and then your likely playing for your set, i don't think you can ever be that confident of getting 3 additional callers most of the time. If you get one cold caller then i'm not overly keen on 99 here. Yes it's still a decent hand but you have paid a price to be in this hand and you have alot of overcards to worry about. The raiser judging by your description either has two overcards or a higher pocket pair if this went heads up that's not an easy situation to be in and if i had prior knowledge it was going to be heads up i would fold (in that situation 99 really is not much different from 22 and i wouldn't call/re-raise with that). I think you need more than one additional caller here, if your confident in your read of there being mutiple callers then fair enough i might make the same call but generally i would fold 99 in this situation as it's difficult to ever be so sure without at least one cold caller between you.

[DMBFan23]

doesnt this depend on UTG's propensity to checkraise? if he doesnt checkraise a lot I think we should bet the turn, but if he does tend checkraise the turn a lot checking behind and autocalling a non-ace river might be best - that way we get to avoid mucking to a checkraise bluff or semibluff (say, with the Ad), especially if he knows we're TAG too.

I'd probably fold pf, even if we know we're getting some coldcallers, we're going to be in bad absolute and relative position, and we're set up to win not much/lose a bit unless we flop a set.

[MVicuna]

[ QUOTE ]
I totally disagree with the fold or 3bet mentality. He knows the people behind him will call, which means he's getting the multiway pot that PPs need. It wouldn't be that bad a play to cold call 22 here.

If you 3bet to get it HU, you're just putting yourself in a slightly ahead or way behind situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't *know* its going to be a multi-way pot, he is gambling it will be based on based on past history.

The MOST profitable place to be vs the PFR when you have a set is to his right, the LEAST profitable is to his left. Hero is to his left, this SHOULD be factored into every call with a speculation hand.

Later,
MarkV.

[BubbleBoy]

Tight, aggressive player raises UTG.....fold your 9s pre-flop.

[Avatar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I totally disagree with the fold or 3bet mentality. He knows the people behind him will call, which means he's getting the multiway pot that PPs need. It wouldn't be that bad a play to cold call 22 here.

If you 3bet to get it HU, you're just putting yourself in a slightly ahead or way behind situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't *know* its going to be a multi-way pot, he is gambling it will be based on based on past history.

The MOST profitable place to be vs the PFR when you have a set is to his right, the LEAST profitable is to his left. Hero is to his left, this SHOULD be factored into every call with a speculation hand.

Later,
MarkV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I gotta agree with Eric5148. Poker is all gambling but there is factors involved that help you formulate a decision that creates great EV.

Our Hero here had a read on a table. His read could not be 100% accurate, nor is anyone else's but even if it is 60-75% accurate, then his cold-call here is correct.

In the circumstances above, I think 3-betting to isolate would be a third choice.