Narrowing the reverse gap: the early-out phenomenon

[Irieguy]

Have you ever played in one of those SNGs where 2 or 3 people are elimated in the first few hands? Don't you automatically think to yourself, "sweet, this is going to be easy," only to be surprised by the fact that there are still 7 players in level 5? Well, I've been looking at that issue for while and think I understand what may be happening.

First of all, you have to understand the "reverse gap concept." As we all know, in a tournament structure game it is correct to raise with a wider range of hands than you would be willing to call a raise with. But most players actually utilize a reverse gap concept. They are too weak/passive to raise enough... but they hate to fold, so they will cold-call raises and limp-call with virtually any hand they think may be playable. This means that they will literally call a raise with a wider range of hands than they would raise with in the first place. It's amazing that you could play poker that badly, but it is ubiquitous in the SNGs $33 and below.

At the lower limits, this reverse-gap mentality is made even worse by the stack sizes. After one orbit, 3-5 players will have more than 1000 chips, and the others will have less than 800. It seems that this really bothers the poor player. They see their stack of 720 chips, see 4 opponents with 1100 chips, and they get very nervous. That extra digit makes a big perceptual difference. So when chips are pushed at them, their K-8s starts to look like a good way to catch up to the big stacks.

But when 1 player triples up in an early hand, the poor players have the same initial reaction that we all do: "if I just wait a little longer, more people will bust out and I can make the money." Now, a suited king is going to look just as pretty as ever, so there's still going to be plenty of limping. But the field becomes a little less willing to call off their stack because they think they might be able to survive a little while in a tournament that starts out that way. The reverse gap becomes narrower. Yet another example of how a bad player can make an accidental adjustment that helps them. But the result is that the SNG will play more slowly than it would tend to if you only lose 1 player in the first level or two.

So what does that mean to an expert player? Well, if the reverse gap narrows, implied odds are going to get worse. That means that speculative hands like small pairs will decrease in value. Also, the bubble is likely to occur with the blinds representing a large portion of most of the players' stacks. You will want to identify the players who are more likely to relinquish their blinds in the later levels. Lastly, you start to see some more half-hearted preflop raises from late position that can be safely played back at from the blinds. Blind play is already the most important part of SNG play, but in these types of tournaments it becomes even more important.

So, limp less, play the blinds more aggressively, and look for your late-stage marks. I think that may be the way to handle those early-out SNGs. Of course, this is pure conjecture and I may be totally wrong... so I'm interested to hear what everybody thinks.

Irieguy

[Scuba Chuck]

Irieguy, I wanted to compliment you on your use of the word ubiquitous. I don't see the use of vocabulary much on this site, and it may be the reason for the lack of responses.

Ubiquitous - omnipresent

Okay, now I'll await your expert players responses...

[morgan180]

Great post Irie.

So when we get to 7 players at level 5

- be more aggressive out of the blinds, even with limpers, especially if the limpers are the "hanger-on" types who are hoping to sneak their way in to the money

- play back at half hearted blind steals from late position with a wider range than normal

- identify those "hangers-on" and attack their blinds, even with weak limpers in ahead of you


i played 7 SNGs last night and had a 7 people at 100/200 and 150/300 at 6 of the tables and the blinds were comprising 30-70% of everyone's stacks (including mine)

Questions:

What are your raising/pushing standards at this level? I am trying to get a better handle on where my raising/pushing hand standards should open up to at this level.

What percentage of the time are you looking to steal blinds? Or how many times per orbit?

At what percentage of your stack does a raise become a push?

Do you try to play your "real" hands, or do these become steal hands as well, just taking the 300 or so in blinds?

[Irieguy]

Thanks, but it seems as though everybody just found my post unworthy of any comment whatsoever.

I doubt that ingemination will change that.

Irieguy

[Dallara]

Irie, I think it was a very interesting post, and something I never thought of. When I'm in a SNG where 2-3 players exit early, I try to take advantage of the big stacks.

Sometimes the early big stacks will play more passively than normal because they conclude that based on their early lead they can coast into the money. You can take advantage of that by stealing their blinds a little more often. Be wary though because a minority of those early big stacks will turn into calling stations. Those, obviously, you just want to punish when you catch a big hand.

If you can get a handle on what sort of mistake the big stacks will tend to make, there's another opportunity for you.

[Scuba Chuck]

I would have posted thoughts, but I don't view myself as an expert. Nor would I have much to offer other than to reflect that I am a student of the game.

FWIW, in my limited experience, I have noticed these situations. Personally I've just continued playing my tight play early on. That being said, I do see the potential benefits of identifying who on your left will fold early, to prepare for the more important blind-stealing later. I will consider this play when I have position and next encounter.

Regards,
Scuba

[morgan180]

One of my favorite things about these boards (in my very brief tenure anyway) is that most of the strategy, theoretical, concept oriented posts get absolutely no love, and the bad beats and others get about 800 posts.

[ColdestCall]

[ QUOTE ]
So, limp less, play the blinds more aggressively, and look for your late-stage marks. I think that may be the way to handle those early-out SNGs. Of course, this is pure conjecture and I may be totally wrong... so I'm interested to hear what everybody thinks.



Well Said.

The lack of responses probably has something to do with the fact that you nailed it the first time.

Damn, how do I get this quote thing to work right....

[El Maximo]

Good post! I dont think I understood the underlying concepts of why these early out SnGs become so much tougher than they look. I would just say:

"Damn, 3 people out on level 1. This will be a piece of cake."

"%#$!$, !@$###, I cant beleive we still 5 handed at level 7!"

[Cael_Sanderson]

[ QUOTE ]
When I'm in a SNG where 2-3 players exit early, I try to take advantage of the big stacks.


[/ QUOTE ]
I think this is dangerous advice if the player doubled up with a non-premium hand. When I see somebody double up by calling an allin preflop with a low pocket pair or AQ(and lower) I proceed with caution because that player is obviously loose and willing to gamble.

[Cael_Sanderson]

So my overall thoughts on this type of situation is that it is not that different than a normal SNG with the exception that players might go into survival mode sooner. If you can identify which players are in survival mode it will be very +EV but it is difficult to determine if a player is just trying to survive or has gone card dead. I also try not to get involved in a large pot with the big stacks unless I have the goods. Try trapping one of the big stacks if the big stack is trying to bully the table.

[(my name it is) Sam Hall]

Well, I was going to leave the premium top-of-the-thread space to the pros...

[ QUOTE ]
That extra digit makes a big perceptual difference. So when chips are pushed at them, their K-8s starts to look like a good way to catch up to the big stacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm glad I'm not the only one who thinks this. My "psychological utility" on my 1000th chip is pretty high. I like to keep it to make my stack "look big," adding credibility to my stealing and bullying attempts.

[ QUOTE ]
You will want to identify the players who are more likely to relinquish their blinds in the later levels.

[/ QUOTE ]

oohhh... please enlighten further. I look for high VPIP (>40%) in levels 1-3, dropping off in 4-5, as a good target, especially if he doesn't raise pre-flop with the hands he does play in 4-5. What else should alert me to the presence of a late-level blind mark?

Sam

[Dallara]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is dangerous advice if the player doubled up with a non-premium hand. When I see somebody double up by calling an allin preflop with a low pocket pair or AQ(and lower) I proceed with caution because that player is obviously loose and willing to gamble.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, and I tried to qualifiy my advice along the same lines. You will see some of those guys clam up once they've hit their double up though.

I like your name. The Cael Sanderson of poker would be pretty scary.

[Turk]

Great post!

[ QUOTE ]
look for your late-stage marks.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are the things you are looking for in a good mark ? I mean, is there a certain criterea or just a feel?

[Irieguy]

There are a few things that catch my eye as a SNG develops:

1. A player who folds their SB a few times. This is correct, but uncommon. So, if I see it, I know he may be somebody that won't put up a fight without a hand.

2. A player who doesn't play a lot of hands, and has folded to a reraise. If you find the rare player who can fold to a reraise, make a mental note of that.

3. A player who selects "check/fold" when he's in the BB. You can tell because you will see some folds and checks instantly when the action is to him in the BB. If you know that a player likes to select "check/fold" from the BB, you can steal for min. raises against him. I rely on this a lot, because I play 6-8 tables at once... it's one of the few types of actions that you can notice peripherally once you've trained yourself to be perceptive. ie- alway try to watch the action from the blinds.

These are the things I look out for in general, but I now start paying particular attention to this early on when a few people bust-out in level 1. I know there are likely going to be a lot of players still alive in level 5, and I want to have the best plan for winning.

Irieguy

[morgan180]

[ QUOTE ]
I look for high VPIP (>40%) in levels 1-3, dropping off in 4-5, as a good target, especially if he doesn't raise pre-flop with the hands he does play in 4-5.

[/ QUOTE ]

how do you get this info on the fly?? I use poker tracker to record information and look up my opponents general information before I start but how do you get this detail on each level, etc. is this through game time or playerview?

sorry, not to hijack an excellent conceptual post.

[El Maximo]

Ive been using Playerview and color code VP$IP and PFR% green, yellow, and red. If I see the colors change in level 4+ than I have an idea that they are changing gears. I take note of whose becoming tighter/looser and passive/aggressive.

[Irieguy]

playerview works for SNGs???

[morgan180]

[ QUOTE ]
playerview works for SNGs???

[/ QUOTE ]

this is exactly what i am thinking - if i can see people's stats change by level of an SNG...

[El Maximo]

It can work for SnGs. I have the predetermined colors set for VP$IP and PFR% ranges for levels 1-3. By the time I hit level 4 I have 30 hands on all the players left. Than I look for color code changes. I want to see who is changing thier style of play as we approach the bubble. Its not optimal but has helped me get better reads.

[UMTerp]

Is PlayerView part of PokerTracker or is it a separate program?

[morgan180]

It's a seperate free program (like game time) that gives you heads up display of information in your db about opponents. you can learn about it here:
http://www.playerview.net/

it's super-effective for ring games but i wasn't aware of any real utility for SNG's until maximo's post.

[Turk]

[ QUOTE ]
I look for high VPIP (>40%)

[/ QUOTE ]

Translation to english please /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[SuitedSixes]

VPIP = PokerTracker-ese for Voluntarily Put $$ In Pot.

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
At the lower limits, this reverse-gap mentality is made even worse by the stack sizes. After one orbit, 3-5 players will have more than 1000 chips, and the others will have less than 800. It seems that this really bothers the poor player. They see their stack of 720 chips, see 4 opponents with 1100 chips, and they get very nervous. That extra digit makes a big perceptual difference. So when chips are pushed at them, their K-8s starts to look like a good way to catch up to the big stacks.


[/ QUOTE ]
Irie-
Great post . . . it made my head hurt. I have, also, noticed the comfort from having the 4 digit stack even though it's only 200 more than you started with.

Here's something I've been struggling with, I've been playing it too aggressively and I think it has hurt me. If the shorter stacks are feeling pressured to make a move their range of raising hands should be widening, shouldn't our gap of what we are willing to call them with widen as well? If I understand what you are saying ("speculative hands like pocket pairs will actually decrease in value") then our range of calling hands should actually tighten up?

[Irieguy]

Well, It's not so much tightening up as it is eliminating the speculative limps. These tables seem to become more tentative after a few early-outs, so the implied odds aren't there. But you can often pick up more chips than usual through aggressive positional play. If I know I can be last to act at a table like this, I'll have a pretty wide range of raising hands.

As far as widening my calling standards, that doesn't figure into my game until we are in the money. I try to always be the one getting my chips in first until we are 3 handed or I have the goods.

Irieguy