99 over pair. How did I do?

[Allinlife]

Villain called 75 potsized bet with Q6o, drawing to open-ended straight draw
in level 1 UTG

NL Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee
Level:3 Blinds(25/50) -
Table Table 11118 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: NewMexRider ( $535 )
Seat 2: Navarrae ( $280 )
Seat 3: Hero ( $1150 )
Seat 5: DMcBigbis ( $1710 )
Seat 6: thirtyslews ( $1450 )
Seat 7: edmondpoker1 ( $1830 )
Seat 9: bribri32 ( $825 )
Seat 10: gopies ( $220 )
Trny:8034087 Level:3
Blinds(25/50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 9c 9h ]
Navarrae calls [50].
Hero [50].
DMcBigbis calls [50].
thirtyslews calls [50].
edmondpoker1 folds.
bribri32 folds.
gopies calls [25].
NewMexRider checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6h, 3h, 3d ]
gopies checks.
NewMexRider checks.
Navarrae checks.
Hero bets [200].
DMcBigbis raises [400].
thirtyslews folds.
gopies folds.
NewMexRider folds.
Navarrae folds.
Hero calls [200]. <-- laydown?
** Dealing Turn ** [ Td ]
Hero bets [475]. --> accomplished nothing.. I think

thanks for taking the time:)

[Marcotte]

With 1100 in the pot on the turn, I think you have to go all in or check/fold. Villain could have anything from a 3 to a flush draw. It's probably too weak tight to not bet the flop, so I think your play here is ok. I'm not sure about calling the raise here. Most rational players wouldn't raise with a 6, but if he limps with Q8o UTG who knows. More likely he's either got a 3, an OESD, or a flush draw. If he's as bad as we think, I think you should fold and wait for a better spot.

On the turn, like I said, all-in or check/fold. I myself would be tempted to push, but I think that's a losing play. By only betting around 4-500 (with 700 left in your stack) you have to call the almost inevitable raise all-in, so you may as well push yourself. Probably a better line is to check and hope to show down as cheap as possible, realizing that you will probably have to fold.

I don't know though. Tough hand. Not sure my advice is any good.

[syka16]

[ QUOTE ]
It's probably too weak tight to not bet the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Bad bet. 6 handed paired board 1/2 the deck could ruin your hand. check/fold. You're right about not betting enough to give correct drawing odds which leaves you all in 6 handed...

[adanthar]

I like the limp (though you could also go all in) and the flop bet, but I'll give you a hint:

People who coldcall big bets with Q6o don't raise draws.

[Marcotte]

hehe. As I counted up the pot, I failed to notice it was 6 handed. That certainly changes things.

Would this be a good spot for a min-bet? Maybe 75? Or is this just wasting chips? I don't think check-fold can be right unless it's bet and raised before it gets to you (esp if you check, LP bets and blind or EP check-raises). Is it too likely that the small bet would induce a bluff-raise that you can't call? The only other option is to check, hoping it is checked around. If it isn't, do you fold to a 100 bet by LP? 200? Pot-sized? I'm really lost here.

With a higher PP I could understand checking, since a free card is less likely to make someone a higher pair, but with 99 don't you have to try to get out AT, KJ etc?

[ChrisV]

I'm not happy about laying this hand down. Only a three beats me and a three may wait to raise on a board like this. It's unclear to me whether the minraise is an attempt to milk you or is because villain is unsure about his hand (holding say K6).

I'm not sure about the best line. Betting the flop seems clearly right. I think I like calling the raise on the flop and checking the turn for more information. I will try to decide based on bet size and tempo whether I can lay this down.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I like calling the raise on the flop and checking the turn for more information.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's the information you've requested: You will face a 200-ish bet 1/4 to 1/3 of the time and an all in 2/3 to 3/4 of the time.

The bet size will not vary with whether the fish holds a 6 or 3 (although it'll usually be a 3), but it will certainly vary with whether his synapses have fired the 'go all in' button.

[captZEEbo1]

I don't particularly like the limp of 99 at 25/50 blinds. Once the blinds get this hi, you should only be limping for trapping purposes (or special steal plays =) ). Are you limping 99 for set value? or are you limping it for overpair, because you got your overpair (which is a miracle, by the way) and you have no confidence in it. If you're too afraid to raise with 99, you should probably just be mucking it. I have a feeling your opponent is NOT milking with trips. He probably would have slowplayed it until the turn, seeing as this is a $10+1. My guess is you are ahead. It's also less likely people are limping a 3 at this blind stage (but your read about the Q6o is troubling). If a blind check-raises you, you are in a world of pain now.

[ChrisV]

The situation on the turn is:

Pot: 1050
Hero: 700
Villain: 1260

Both a 200 bet and an allin bet will cause me to put my stack in. The bets I'm going to be suspicious of are in between bets. Bets in the range 400-800 I'm going to be pretty wary of.

These situations are going to be pretty rare. Like I said I'm not happy about folding the hand. I think I have the best hand the majority of the time here.

[adanthar]

Against a guy who cold calls 75 chips with Q6o and then check/calls a straight draw all the way, you do not have the best hand the majority of the time when he raises a 633 flop.

Moreover, it isn't close.

[ChrisV]

How do you figure? It really depends on the type of guy. He could be flat out passive, like you suggest, or he could be a straight-shootin' ABC player. Check call with draws, bet small when you flop decent hands, bet large and/or slowplay with big hands.

I don't think how someone played a drawing hand is a reliable guide to how they're going to play a made hand.

[adanthar]

And how does this help you when he minraises a PF raiser on a 633 board?

There aren't too many of those ABC guys around (they have to be loose passive PF and *then* they have to bet flops they hit, not a common combo) but even if he's only mostly terrible instead of atrocious him minraising on a 633 board is a baaaaad sign.

But, OK, you think you have the best hand...so you *call* a quarter of your remaining stack and wait for him to put you all in on the turn? If you're very lucky, he'll only bet 200 and you can hope he has a 6 so you can CR, or he shuts down so you get nothing out of him unless he hits his 5 outer. Most of the time, you're gonna have to call all in against a 3.

But jeez, if you think your read is that much better than mine for the love of God at least checkraise all in before the turn is Ah or a 6 or something.

[ChrisV]

Hero isn't a PF raiser. It was unraised.

There are benefits to just calling on the flop. For starters, assuming I get it allin vs a 3 or 66, calling the bet here (compared to folding) is worth over 100 in equity to me via turning the 9, so even if I mostly fold the turn I'll get a fair bit of recompense via that.

I don't have a good enough read on the flop to decide what I want to do. The 200 is an investment to buy me a little more information (which comes via tempo of the betting in combination with the bet size). I get various compensations, either drawing a 9 against his trips, or getting him allin when he's behind, which I hope my read will be good enough to allow me to capitalise on (and which will offset the equity loss of the cheap turn card when I'm winning). A pause for thinking before an allin, for example, would convince me to call, whereas a speedy allin, obviously with no thought required, might persuade me to fold.

I'm not normally a fan of calling off nearly a quarter of my stack, but there are extenuating circumstances - the pot is pretty big and I'm either way ahead or way behind - that I think make it a better play than committing one way or the other right this second.

[Phoenix1010]

There is no calling for information here, especially out of position. This decision has to be made on the flop. The call is almost a quarter of your stack. If you're not sure by now whether you have the best hand, you have to fold. It's close to 20 to 1 to hit your set on the turn. With the size of the stacks compared to the raise, implied odds on a turned set are negligible.

I'm of the school that believes online timing reads are overrated, but if they are useful here, the raise on the turn should have provided plenty of opportunity to get a read. Calling here won't guarantee that you get a miracle tell from his turn action. Let me also point out that while it's quite possible that you have the best hand, it's still a very vulnerable hand. Half the deck is made up of scare cards.

I'd like to bring up just how important it is that you are out of position. You flat call the flop raise and then show even more weakness by checking the turn. Assuming he doesn't give up a timing tell, you're in an even tougher situation because now he could just be betting because you showed weakness. You want to avoid making tough decisions tougher. Furthermore, calling the raise gives him one cheap card to make his hand if you are indeed ahead on the flop, and checking the turn gives him a chance at yet another. What happens when the turn's an ace and the river is a queen? Can you bet out your third pair on a paired board any more confidently than you could bet top pair on the flop?

You've got all the information on the flop that you can hope to get. If you think you're ahead, reraise all-in on the flop. If you're not sure, fold. Don't give up a cheap card and then wildly bet over half your stack (for some reason not going all-in, going to do much with the 325 left over?) when an overcard hits.

As for the question of what the villain is holding: too tough to be sure. Poor players (the Q6o gives this impression) will make this kind of play with a variety of hands. The miniraise could be characterized as either very strong or very weak. Remember that AhTh is slightly ahead of you on the flop. This is another reason why pushing the flop is a good play, as there's a chance you could knock out the strong draws that you don't want seeing any more cards. In my personal opinion, there are too many hands that beat you, either already on the flop or potentially on the turn and river, for you to continue with the hand. It would be nice to catch him with K6 and double up, but you've got enough chips left to wait for a more secure spot. Just my opinion.

Regards, Steve