Who folds to this turn raise?

[DMBFan23]

I'm reading theory of poker now, and it has me all convoluted about paying off turn raises and river bets and such. This hand resembles a situation I often find myself in, and I almost always call it down. leak?

MP3 is a semi-TAG (he's where I was right before I found 2+2...VP$IP 22%, PFR 5%, Tot-A 1.2 - knows more than the average party-er, but not a TAG)

Party Poker 1/2 Hold Em (10 Handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K /images/graemlins/heart.gif, K /images/graemlins/club.gif
5 Folds, MP3 calls, CO folds, Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop (7 SB): J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif
BB checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, BB Folds, MP3 calls

Turn (4.5 BB): Q /images/graemlins/club.gif
MP3 checks, Hero bets, MP3 raises, Hero...

at this point I have 7.5-2 effective odds to see a showdown, assuming the inevitable river bet from MP3. Here's how I assess my situation:

1) he might be semi-bluffing. am I giving too much credit to a not too tricky opponent that he might semi bluff me?
2) I could be behind and drawing VERY slim to a set, or dead to something like T /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
3) OTOH, I could be behind to two pair, in which case folding the turn would be very wrong. I could call the turn and fold unimproved on the river, but I can't fold an overpair unimproved on the river for one bet in this situation can I?
4) I could be ahead of something KQ or AJ-ish (or even AQ) who puts me on TT or AK and wants to test me.

What do most of you do here?

[Evolution Crisis]

I think I call down here unless I improve on the river.. but then again I haven't been playing limit very long..

[k000k]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm reading theory of poker now, and it has me all convoluted about paying off turn raises and river bets and such. This hand resembles a situation I often find myself in, and I almost always call it down. leak?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I'd 3bet it, and call it down if he gives me any more grief.

Unless it was a good player I was very respectful of, in which case I'd call. THEN if be bets into me on the river, I call it, if he checks, I bet and call a raise. I don't think most players go for 2 check-raises in a row for fear of getting checked thru.

[droolie]

Remember you don't have to be good here 50% of the time for the calldown to be profittable. You'll lose a bunch of these but that doean't mean calling down is a leak. Folding every time this situation came up would be a bigger leak than calling down.

I raise or call-down depending on my read. In this case i call-down against a sL-A. You quite possibly might be dead here but you can't know that just yet. If he has AQo, KQ, Q10, K10/images/graemlins/club.gif he probably does this trying to see if you're on AK or AJ.

[Jaran]

Hey DMB,
I think you're most likely beat here. That being said, I call down for a couple of reasons. First off, I have an overpair, and there is a chance that he is pulling this move w/something like KQ, QT. Secondly, if he has something like QJ, you must see the river. My final reason is I don't want it to be known that I'll always fold to a turn c/r. If I had AK, I'd fold.

-Jaran

[meep_42]

I 3-bet here more often than not, make him call me down.

-d

[DMBFan23]

if capped, do you call on the river?

[meep_42]

Most likely, yes.

(caveat: I suck in heads up situations, and am trying to work on it.)

-d

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey DMB,
I think you're most likely beat here. That being said, I call down for a couple of reasons. First off, I have an overpair, and there is a chance that he is pulling this move w/something like KQ, QT. Secondly, if he has something like QJ, you must see the river. My final reason is I don't want it to be known that I'll always fold to a turn c/r. If I had AK, I'd fold.

-Jaran

[/ QUOTE ]

my reasoning too.

EDIT: also, a shameless bump.

[flair1239]

I think it is more likely he has simply picked up top pair.

I am not so quick to go into calldown mode with an overpair. Keep in mind your flop bet mean almost nothing to him, since that is how many players would play AK. Your turn bet could just as easily be construed as following up on your percieved bluff.

You have been betting for value, at this point you have no good reason to assume that you are behind. I would reraise, then call down to a raise and a river bet.

[DMBFan23]

a raise from a non maniac doesn't automatically mean I'm behind, but it's reason to think so, IMO.

what 4-bets me here that I can call a river bet unimproved?

[Jaran]

Right now, hero's hand has a ton of showdown value. I think this is a situation we need to treat almost like way ahead/way behind. If hero raises the turn and the villian caps, I don't see how we can call the river UI. Hero's read on villian is not as a LAG, but rather fairly solid. I want to see this river as cheaply as possible, and I would gag to be capped over a turn 3bet. If villian does only have TP, then let him bluff at it again on the river. If the board pairs or you spike a K, then raise the river. Just my opinion.

-Jaran

[DMBFan23]

unless it pairs with a Q /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]
Keep in mind your flop bet mean almost nothing to him, since that is how many players would play AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

good point, I always wonder how often other players put me on missed overcards like AK and try to blow me off it. see #4 in my original post, it's one of the reasons this is hard.

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
a raise from a non maniac doesn't automatically mean I'm behind, but it's reason to think so, IMO.

what 4-bets me here that I can call a river bet unimproved?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you simply had top pair or if the turn card was an overcard to your pocket pair. Also if a below the board card fell and he check raised me. I would give folding more of a thought, or at least simply calling.

But since you still have an overpair, and the turn card was an overcard to the board, I just really think a pair of queens is a more likely scenario than anything else.

Which is not to say that he did not make 2-pair or a straight. However, if I were in his situation and I had Qx (x being a decent kicker), I would check raise the turn as well. I just don't think you should assume T9s, QJ, Q8, Q2, 88, or 22. By his raising stadards it is just as likely that he limped with AQ, KQ or QT.

I agree that there is a good chance that you are behind, but I also think there is a very strong possibility that you still have the best hand.

That said after rethinking things, a four-bet would be very bad news. But I really don't think you would be able to fold the river, unless a very scary card showed up. If I am counting right, you would be getting about 11.5-1 by that time. But I think automatically backing off with this hand would be a mistake.