Feeling like variance "owes" you

[Reef]

While in a session where you're getting sucked out on alot, do you somehow feel that variance owes you an upswing soon? Because of this, will you go out of your way to extend your session as long as you're playing fine?

[BusterStacks]

Dude, your variance doesn't pay you back until way later.

[zephed56]

I only ever feel like variance owes me...
a downswing.

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]
Dude, your variance doesn't pay you back until way later.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess it just depends how big a swing we're talking about here. There are some ups and downs in a single session, not just long run. For example, maybe after a 50 BB slide over an hour and then breaking even after an hour, I feel like the next hour should be 'luckier' for me.

[Bataglin]

We'll all get rewarded in Heaven (or Hell). Isn't that nice?

[Swampy]

Unless I'm about 80% sure that the downswing really has nothing to do with my play, I'll leave the table and try to figure out what the problem is. When I sit back down things generally go better, but that has nothing to do with the vagaries of variance -- it's because I've been able to get some perspective.

[HesseJam]

Variance might owe you but unfortunately, it has a bad memory.

[stinkypete]

variance doesn't owe you [censored]. it's just as likely to come at you with another downswing as with an upswing. and then after that downswing, it's just as likely to come at you with another downswing as with an upswing. and then after that downswing, it's just as likely to come at you with another downswing as with an upswing. and then after that downswing, it's just as likely to come at you with another downswing as with an upswing.

understand? good.

[EliteNinja]

[ QUOTE ]
variance doesn't owe you [censored]. it's just as likely to come at you with another downswing as with an upswing. and then after that downswing, it's just as likely to come at you with another downswing as with an upswing. and then after that downswing, it's just as likely to come at you with another downswing as with an upswing. and then after that downswing, it's just as likely to come at you with another downswing as with an upswing.

understand? good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunately, I do understand.

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]
variance doesn't owe you [censored]. it's just as likely to come at you with another downswing as with an upswing. and then after that downswing, it's just as likely to come at you with another downswing as with an upswing. and then after that downswing, it's just as likely to come at you with another downswing as with an upswing. and then after that downswing, it's just as likely to come at you with another downswing as with an upswing.

understand? good.

[/ QUOTE ]

but the odds of more and more of them in a row get smaller and smaller

[manpower]

[ QUOTE ]
but the odds of more and more of them in a row get smaller and smaller

[/ QUOTE ]
Er, but the odds of the next losing hand / session remain the same.

[HesseJam]

Exactly, this is what I meant above by "variance having a bad memory."

[uw_madtown]

Variance owes me a friggin' truckload of money as a Christmas present. Either that, or my first 65k hands at ~2 BB/100 was a ridonkulous streak of luck... because these last 18k have been slightly in the red (about -.05 BB/100 or so).

So either variance is enjoying continually kicking me in the balls, or I'm really just a craptastic player. I'd guess it's been both.

[Etric]

[ QUOTE ]
variance doesn't owe you [censored]. it's just as likely to come at you with another downswing as with an upswing. and then after that downswing, it's just as likely to come at you with another downswing as with an upswing. and then after that downswing, it's just as likely to come at you with another downswing as with an upswing. and then after that downswing, it's just as likely to come at you with another downswing as with an upswing.

understand? good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe for you. But if you are playing an +EV game, you are favored to win in the next session. If you are playing a -EV game you are not favored to win in the next session.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]

Maybe for you. But if you are playing an +EV game, you are favored to win in the next session. If you are playing a -EV game you are not favored to win in the next session.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's not necessarily true. even if you're a winning player, your session has to be longer than some x number of hands for it to be greater than 50/50 that you'll have a winning session. x can be quite large.

for a winning player, losing sessions tend to be small losses while winning sessions are comparatively large wins. it's very possible to lose in more than half of your sessions and win overall.

take that, smarta**.

[matt hooley]

Heh, a nice lie some choose not delude themselves with.

[josh1122]

DITTO!!!! Except first 35k here, at 3/6.

EDIT to add at 3/6.

[Cerril]

I can't wait for my reward in Hell... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Grisgra]

after the session I just had, I think I owe *variance* something back . . .