Aaron W.
12-20-2004, 01:01 AM
This is a hand from way back when, and it's really more a hypothetical situation anyway, so assume no special reads except that it's a micro-limit player (not a lag, not a rock...).
I raise AQo UTG and get called by MP and SB.
The flop comes down 223 rainbow. I bet out and get raised by MP. SB folds, leaving me heads up and out of position with overcards. It's highly unlikely that he has a 2 or 3 in this spot, so the question is whether he has overcards (which you will dominate) or a medium pair (which has you chasing 6 outs). For the sake of discussion, assume that these are the only two cases. The pot size is 10 SB before you make your next move.
Assume that a blank hits on the turn, because if an ace or queen falls, it's slightly more straightforward to play (in that you're pretty sure you're ahead now - the check-raise or bet out option is slightly off-topic for this thread).
Q: What line should I take from here?
I've been turning this over in my head, trying to get a clean line when I have no read. Here are four ways of playing it, none of whose reasons I find particularly compelling. Maybe someone out there has something more solid.
--> 3-bet and lead the turn. You might still be ahead, but even if you're not ahead, you've probably got 6 clean outs to the best hand. By playing your hand this strongly, you've got a chance of making a better hand (say a medium pair) fold.
--> Stop and go. You get approximately the same affect as option 1, but you don't put in that extra bet on the flop, which saves you a little bit when you're behind.
--> Call and check-call. Maybe he's playing back at you, trying to make you fold your overcards. By taking either of the previous two options, you shut down his bluff. But if he does have a medium pair, he may not fold to your agression and you're throwing bets away by trying. It's one of those 'way ahead or way behind cases'.
--> 3-bet and check-call. You don't know where you stand, but by 3-betting and checking, you may get a free river card to snag an ace or queen (assuming one doesn't fall on the turn). The out of position free card play may work here since you've shown so much agression.
For reference, here are some numbers:
Against a medium pair (77)
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=669987
pokenum -h ac qs - 7h 7d -- 2c 3s 2h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 3s 2c 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Ac 254 25.66 736 74.34 0 0.00 0.257
7d 7h 736 74.34 254 25.66 0 0.00 0.743
Against two overcards (T9s - with a backdoor flush draw)
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=669988
pokenum -h ac qs - th 9h -- 2c 3s 2h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 3s 2c 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Ac 723 73.03 258 26.06 9 0.91 0.735
Th 9h 258 26.06 723 73.03 9 0.91 0.265
I raise AQo UTG and get called by MP and SB.
The flop comes down 223 rainbow. I bet out and get raised by MP. SB folds, leaving me heads up and out of position with overcards. It's highly unlikely that he has a 2 or 3 in this spot, so the question is whether he has overcards (which you will dominate) or a medium pair (which has you chasing 6 outs). For the sake of discussion, assume that these are the only two cases. The pot size is 10 SB before you make your next move.
Assume that a blank hits on the turn, because if an ace or queen falls, it's slightly more straightforward to play (in that you're pretty sure you're ahead now - the check-raise or bet out option is slightly off-topic for this thread).
Q: What line should I take from here?
I've been turning this over in my head, trying to get a clean line when I have no read. Here are four ways of playing it, none of whose reasons I find particularly compelling. Maybe someone out there has something more solid.
--> 3-bet and lead the turn. You might still be ahead, but even if you're not ahead, you've probably got 6 clean outs to the best hand. By playing your hand this strongly, you've got a chance of making a better hand (say a medium pair) fold.
--> Stop and go. You get approximately the same affect as option 1, but you don't put in that extra bet on the flop, which saves you a little bit when you're behind.
--> Call and check-call. Maybe he's playing back at you, trying to make you fold your overcards. By taking either of the previous two options, you shut down his bluff. But if he does have a medium pair, he may not fold to your agression and you're throwing bets away by trying. It's one of those 'way ahead or way behind cases'.
--> 3-bet and check-call. You don't know where you stand, but by 3-betting and checking, you may get a free river card to snag an ace or queen (assuming one doesn't fall on the turn). The out of position free card play may work here since you've shown so much agression.
For reference, here are some numbers:
Against a medium pair (77)
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=669987
pokenum -h ac qs - 7h 7d -- 2c 3s 2h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 3s 2c 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Ac 254 25.66 736 74.34 0 0.00 0.257
7d 7h 736 74.34 254 25.66 0 0.00 0.743
Against two overcards (T9s - with a backdoor flush draw)
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=669988
pokenum -h ac qs - th 9h -- 2c 3s 2h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 3s 2c 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Ac 723 73.03 258 26.06 9 0.91 0.735
Th 9h 258 26.06 723 73.03 9 0.91 0.265