$1k SNG Hand - Opinions?

[Chief911]

We are down to 4, with one stack lower than me, but not by a lot. He is also very aggressive against stealers, making it harder for me to steal through. Big stack hand certienly opened up his game raising the last 3 pots. What would you do here:

Converter not working for some reason, so here goes:

TheWombat (4128 in chips)
Seat 3: serb2127 (1525 in chips)
Seat 6: Fanning (5712 in chips)
Seat 9: Chief911 (2135 in chips)

I'm on the button with JJ. Blinds are 75/150. Fanning open-raises to 450. Hero....

Nick

[ChrisV]

...slams his stack in. Nothing else merits serious consideration - you can't call off a quarter of your stack and you can't fold JJ to someone who raised the last 3 hands in a row.

[adanthar]

Cows.

[Chief911]

This one?

http://www.bettheriver.com/image/pushit.jpg

[The once and future king]

You lucky bastard being able to play in 1k sitngos with Wombat and fanning.

[Chief911]

Ok. This was not intended to be a bad beat post, because it is not. My only consideration here was worth taking the risk before the small stack might bust.

Results:

Fanning calls, and flips over AKo.

Flop is full of rags, turn is a Q, river is an ugly K.

So no one feels that you migth fold this here considering stack sizes (And I'm not implying I think it is correct, I just want a nice checkup)?

Nick

[bxpeter]

I think you need to push.

Gotta play for first. Also, like you said, his stack is not much smaller than yours so its not like he's busting out in the next couple of hands. If he had under 1000, I'd think about folding.

Where can you play 1K sng's?

[partygirluk]

Hi Nick,

Easy shove.

[Chief911]

Pokerstars.

Nick

[assron]

I'd stop and go. I know a lot of players dont like seeing flops in the late stages of SNGs, but if he has a hand and is going to hit an ace on the flop, I'd prefer to know... especially with a hand like JJ which is either going to be very weak or very strong after the flop. I'm not liking the coinflip against any two overcards, I need to see if I'm going to win, and my call is going to make him squirm in his chair (the reraise could be anything decent or even sometimes junk, the call is definitely a starting hand to be worried about).

[Chief911]

assron,

Not a bad idea, but the goal here is to get the villian to fold preflop. I would say that 8 of 10 times he'd fold here. But not AK. =)

Nick

[assron]

well if you want the fold, the push is a no-brainer.

[rjb03]

What hands do you really want to fold preflop here? AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ, and KQ? He's very unlikely to fold anything in this list except KQ perhaps. Any other hands you would want to call you. Because he's raised the last 3 pots, it's not too likely he has one of these big hands. It's a sng here (although they're rare...being a $1000 buy-in on stars). I think folding here is playing scared (above the psychological bankroll, I'm pretty sure you're bankrolled financially). Getting all the money in the pot seems like the best play here. As for getting him to fold preflop...I doubt he will fold any hands that you want him to fold preflop.

[Chief911]

rjb,

No, I do not want a call, even from a hand that I am probably slightly ahead of. I want those 675 chips in the pot, that's it. I do not want a showdown. I dont want AT to call me. I dont want 9T to call me. I want those chips, which gives me a good bit of time to wait out the smaller stack, which I did not have at that time.

Nick

[ChrisV]

You definitely want a call from T9. That's a pretty juicy overlay and gives you a big chance of higher placings.

AT though, I agree you would prefer a fold.

[vandalay]

Anyone know the odds of NOT having an AKQ on the flop? i.e. overcards for your jack?

Actually, I would rather know the stats of not having AKQJ on the flop with you having JJ... As I know I would be happy with an AJ2 flop...


Never thought of this myself...

[raptor517]

well, pushing and stop and go works well with jacks. a lot of times i like to push, just to get the other guy out wiht a marginal hand because i dont want a tricky situation. in this specific sng, if the raiser had done that to the last 3 hands, i would definitely push. any other situation, it would be 50/50 stop and go vs push.

[citanul]

Someone clarify for me here, what does anyone who suggests the stop and go here mean?

He's on the button, so Villain is going to be first to act on the flop. The stop and go that I know of insists on you being first to act.

citanul

oh, and it's an easy push, imo.

[captZEEbo1]

Stop and go doesn't work well with JJ, I mean, let's say an A, K, or Q flops, he would likely bet at it no matter what he holds, now what? Plus stop-n-go won't make sense, b/c he's on button. I think allin is a must, get him to fold most hands. I guess iwth AK, or AQ he'll probably call, and you have to deal with a coinflip.

[lacky]

hey, I'm a lowly $55 player, but for what it's worth....

Big stack is clearly stealing often, so you have maybe a 50-60% chance he will fold, and are ahead of maybe 75% of the hands he would call with (which quite a few givin he is gitting decent odds to call with reasonable hands) The blinds are reletively small still, but I don't see passing up this chance to preserve a 500 chip lead over the shortstack.

If my thinking is all wrong, that's probably why I'm playing $55's. If it's perfect, a guess I'm just a pussy.

Steve

edit-just reread the oringinal post. I though you had 1500 chips, making it about 1000 to go. It would actually be about 1700 to go, so you should get the fold 75% plus, be ahead or even on 50%+ of his calls, still a push

[SuitedSixes]

I initially thought 'push' also. But in a bubble situation like this, I like the "stop and go" for the following reasons: If an A,K,Q flops, you can get out with 1685 and still not be the short stack, making a money finish still likely. If a J flops, you've got position for the trap. If villain checks, a non-threatening flop you can push and put him to a decision.

[dr_zorba]

To beginners, this one looks easy.

First thought is: If I push in and get called, I'm either a slight favorite facing two overs, or a big dog to a bigger pair. And if I push in and lose, I lose a bunch of money.

Hmm. Since he probably has big cards it's less likely that another one will Flop. So I will call PF. If Flop has nothing > J, THEN push in. Otherwise, check/fold.

If there's something stupid in that thinking, please let me know.

Now I'm going to read all the analyses for pushing in PF and see if they can change my mind. But obviously, I don't see the problem.

[Chief911]

Ok, I think there is some serious problems with people thinking the stop and go is correct here. And I think part of it is that people think it is such a "nifty" move, that they are overusing it possibly.

Here is why I think the thinking of using a stop and go is incorrect:

1. The preflop raiser has opened up significantly, but can also lay down hands.
2. I have a very tight image.
3. If I were truly doing a stop and go, I would not look at the flop, and push with any flop. And there is a possibility with 2500 chips now in the pot, and only 1500 to call, that the villian might call with two overcards, or a medium pair.
4. I think it is fair to say that 75%+ of the time, the villian folds here. Of the remaining 25% of the time I'm ahead atleast 60% of the time.

There are more, but I ran out of time, and have to get back to work. The stop and go is rarely the correct answer here

Nick

[alexbrew]

I think you did it right. I don't think you want to play the JJ. You just want the pot taken down. Against the grand majority of hands that Fanning is willing to raise in this position, that's exactly what you're going to do. The fact that you ran into AK which he was willing to risk doubling you up with, that's bad luck. But even then you were a favorite in the hand. Noone wants to go out in a race, but at least you got your money in first and made him make the decision.

[Al Mirpuri]

Push or fold. It is a coinflip.

If you fold and the shortstack does not get a hand then he will be blinded out in twenty hands. I think that too long to wait. Moreover, he might find himself with a hand and then you are shortstacked. (Of course, he could get busted out but if he his playing correctly then that is not all that likely unless he too is faced with a coinflip.) Pushing is good because JJ is a big hand with only four and steals can be coming from any position so why worry about the openraise. So I would push.

[curtains]

Easy allin. When the shortstack has only marginally fewer chips than you, you shouldn't be thinking so much about outlasting them, especially when you have a monster hand.
Even if the shortstack had 5 chips left I'd still push here, as first and second place prizes are well within reach, and your hand is too strong to grovel for the chance at 3rd place and an extra 1000 bucks.

[curtains]

My bad, forgive me, I didn't realize Pokerstars had $1000 sit and go's now. They didn't have them a few days ago? I thought you were talking about PartyPoker and were folding JJ to win 3600 instead of 2400!!!
Despite that I'd still move allin here with JJ, and I don't think its close. Although please ignore my comments about if the guy has 5 chips left /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[tigerite]

Though I am an advocate of the stop and go, I think your folding equity preflop is too great anyway. After all you have around half his stack. It depends how loose you reckon he is, will he "press the button" even though it hurts both of you, so to speak? If so then stop and go, but with most opponents the push is the right move.

[dogsballs]

other players you might stop n' go, but against Fanning you auto-push. He's probably got something like 84o.

[Bigwig]

Push. No question. You're not far enough ahead of the smaller stack to be folding JJ 4-handed.

[DonButtons]

Id push too with your chip stack. Or if your worried about climbing the prize ladder, smooth call, and push on flop if its safe or fold.

[rjb03]

[ QUOTE ]
rjb,

No, I do not want a call, even from a hand that I am probably slightly ahead of. I want those 675 chips in the pot, that's it. I do not want a showdown. I dont want AT to call me. I dont want 9T to call me. I want those chips, which gives me a good bit of time to wait out the smaller stack, which I did not have at that time.

Nick

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand you don't want to be called, but if you want him to fold preflop you've got to push. Whether or not you get called is up to him. No reward without risk in poker. Maybe you don't want AT to call, but you shouldn't mind too much. What if he pushed and showed you A5/AK, are you folding KK? If you were equal stacks, no doubt about it you'd call an all in from AT as there's no way you can get ITM 70%+, but what can your expected ITM be in these sng's to pass up this kind of edge even though you're outchipped 2:1? Of course there's still the fact that he's not showing you his cards and you don't know what he has unless he calls. If you're getting folds here 75% of the time as you predict, then there's really no question what the correct play is.

[assron]

ok 1st off, JJ isnt a "monster hand". it's a very very good hand, but not a monster by any means. You can be beat by all kinds of hands, and although I havent played against Fanning in particular, I'd be wary of putting all my chips in the pot against a player who has been raising like crazy and is obviously getting impatient. I dont think he's just stealing blinds, he doesnt need to with his chipstack, I think he's looking to KO with any two decent cards, and you put all your chips right in front of him.

I think everyone is vastly overestimating chief's folding equity. Fanning can call and take a shot at a KO with any two and still be in decent shape, and probably will do so. Sure, Chief is ahead, but as he said, you cant like getting called there even if he has Ax or junk... Because JJ is not a monster hand. It's not a hand I'd fold 4-handed either obviously, but it's not the kind of advantage I'm looking for to push with if I think the big stack is looking for blood. I'm loving the call here ESPECIALLY if my table image is tight. Anyone who's playing a $1k SNG knows that a tightwad is going to push back sooner or later if you keep raising them. A call though, I think, raises your folding equity on a good flop. He knows you have a pocket pair and will make the fold. I seriously dont think he bets this flop very hard with AK after a tight player calls him. He's also rethinking his raising hands after the call, because he knows he might have to play the hand with you. His raising criteria becomes hands that he wants to be reraised all-in with, which makes it way easier for you to get a read on him. I'm absolutely loving the stop n go here.

[assron]

[ QUOTE ]

Big stack is clearly stealing often, so you have maybe a 50-60% chance he will fold

[/ QUOTE ]

This logic is iffy imo. So the big stack is stealing often, but you have to take into account that his starting hand requirements are going up with every consecutive steal. he's going to have to back off sooner or later, and probably wanted to, but picked up a huge pf hand and is perfectly set up to get a push from any pocket pair and Ax. I'd expect a call from the big stack about 70% of the time here.

[REL18]

Im surprised that on the bubble a player of your experience would state that he doesnt want 9t to call when doubling up here puts u in excellent position to play for a win, while the 675 chips are not a huge factor with blinds at were they are at.

[citanul]

you're surprised because you underestimate what a big deal the 675 chips are at this level. when you realize what a big deal they are, you will not be as surprised. i think you'll also be a lot better at sngs.

change of heart, after looking at the numbers:

i think that perhaps Chief underestimates how big a dog T9 actually is to JJ. personally, I think that I'd want to be called by T9, but not say, AJo. going in as an 80% favorite to just over double up is pretty hot, and I don't think that I could pass that up knowingly, considering prize structure, especially.

REL18, sorry about that first paragraph, but I hope that you would understand why for instance, most of the time you probably wouldn't want to be called by even AJ, or A2. In that case, the 675 clean chips are way better than the 70/30, i think. It's a line, but you have to draw it somewhere /images/graemlins/smile.gif

citanul

[citanul]

Why do you think his stealing requirements necessarilly go up every hand? I think this is only possibly true, especially with Fanning.

I think the logic of "because someone becomes more likely to play back at him each time he steals" is flawed, since to play back at him, the short stacks have to commit all of their chips to the procedure, which they aren't going to often do on a pure resteal. Especially not if they get to the point of say, Fanning being pot committed to call their reraise.

citanul

[Chief911]

What an excellent discussion.

I dont want a call from any hand. While a call from a hand that I dominate isn't THAT bad, those 675 chips put me well over 1k over the low stack, and allow me to be much more aggressive preflop with him being directly in front of me.

Also, say what you want, but I want to get into the money. 1.8x the buyin isn't bad. And once you are 3 handed, things can get a bit wild. So even going into 3 handed with 1k in chips gives you a decent shot at winning with blinds as small as they are currently.

Will try to spend some more time following up a bit later.

Nick