Do you think it's right to call this allin with AKs?

[Scuba Chuck]

With a large raise following all limpers, is it right to assume an allin call when it returns all the way around is most likely a baby pair? And if so, good or bad call with AKs?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (10 handed)
converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG+2 (t905)
MP1 (t625)
MP2 (t820)
MP3 (t1340)
Hero (t670)
Button (t715)
SB (t740)
BB (t575)
UTG (t755)
UTG+1 (t855)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls t30, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls t30, MP1 folds, MP2 calls t30, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t170</font>, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t820 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls t500 (All-In).

Flop: (t1595) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t1595) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

River: (t1595) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t1595

[zephyr]

You're getting aroun 1.9:1 from the pot on your call. You'll see AA or KK here sometimes, but you'll also see 22-JJ. I ran AKs vs. any pair (incl. AA &amp; KK) and it came out to 51:49. You'd have to be pretty certain that your opponent hold AA or KK to make this a fold as you're getting almost 2:1 from the pot.

Call!

Zephyr

[bigredlemon]

though call. It definetly looks like he has a mid-high pair and wants to protect it from a flop. Something like JJ. You're basically settling your tournament life on a coin flip. I doub't he has AA as he went all in, rather than trying to get more value. He might have QQ or KK and is worried about an A flopping, and given his current stack, pushing here would be right as well. Since you have AK, it makes it less likely for him to have one, and if he does have KK, you still have 3 outs.

Even though this is plus EV, a 50% risk on being eliminated isn't really worth it if you think you can outplay him. If you get a read on him as a loose player and might make the same play with AQ, then definetly call. Otherwise, I'd probably pass and look to outplay elsewhere. Doubling up doesn't really double your chances of winning this early, so I'm not sure the risk is worth it. I think either would be a good move.

[Scuba Chuck]

Is it really possible the third limper has more than a small/medium pair or AQ? I could see UTG having KK or something strong like that, but not third limper.

Regardless, I appreciate the odds numbers. I would be interested to know what the odds are for AKs vs all the following: pairs 22-JJ and AQ, AJ, AT. Can you run these?

[bigredlemon]

about 50/50 againts pairs; a huge favourite against a smaller ace.

Generally, only a very bad player will re-raise all in with AQ this early (unless he's sure that everyone will fold.)

[zephyr]

[ QUOTE ]
AKs vs all the following: pairs 22-JJ and AQ, AJ, AT. Can you run these?

[/ QUOTE ]

AKs is a 1.4:1 favorite against this range.

Zephyr

[Phoenix1010]

Definite call. MP2 would have to be an extremely poor player to limp with AA or KK after two players limped in front of him. There are certainly players bad enough to make this play, but they're just as likely to limp reraise all-in with AQ though, so the two possibilities almost cancel each other out.

Assuming he's not a maniac playing AA or KK for set value, You're likely not in terrible shape. By the way, I don't think you can reasonably hope for AQ here. This is a clear cut middle pair in my opinion. Now, I normally shy away from coinflips early in a tournament, but in this situation, folding leaves you short stacked at 500 chips. Furthermore, you've already invested a large chunk of your stack in this pot. I do not advocate investing a fourth of your stack into a pot and then running away from a coinflip. At the next blind level you're going to start getting desparate, so I say you have to take this chance now. As Zephyr pointed out, you're getting favorable odds from the pot, and there's no reason to think that he has you dominated, so it's an easy call.

If he did have AA or KK, well I guess you have to give him credit for "outplaying you" by almost allowing a 5+ handed pot to develop so someone could flop two pair and bust him. I say it's safe to assume that players are somewhat rational if you're going to try to analyze a hand, so if he beat you by badly misplaying his hand, there's not much you could do about it.

I hope your king ended up being good and the villain didn't make a set of jacks. Either way, I'd say you made the best play.

Regards,
Steve

[Scuba Chuck]

Thanks Zephyr and Phoenix. I think you've done a great job of verbalizing my instincts.

Regards, Scuba

[raptor517]

third limper. reraising all in. u put in 170 out of your 670 chips already. would u really fold for 500 more with AKs? i think not. you call, and know that its a coinflip. third limper will not have AA or KK. period. maybe .5% of the time. and thats pushin it.

[Marcotte]

[ QUOTE ]
Regardless, I appreciate the odds numbers. I would be interested to know what the odds are for AKs vs all the following: pairs 22-JJ and AQ, AJ, AT. Can you run these?

[/ QUOTE ]

Check out www.twodimes.net (http://www.twodimes.net) to calculate winning % for any hand vs any hand (vs any hand vs etc.).

[poboy]

You are almost certainly not up against AA,KK, or QQ(though anything is possible). However the hands you are likely to be up against 22-JJ, are still a slight favorite over AK. Assuming you are the best or one of the best players at the table, these are the kinds of situations that you want to avoid early on. Unless you can be certain he would make this move with AK on down(which alot of fish will) I would pass it up. You will still have T500 left which is plenty to come back with. I think your preflop raise should be a little smaller also, you've bet nearly 6XBB when a 3XBB would do just fine. It's much easier to back off when you don't make as large of an investment. JMO