Hands for Guy

[1800GAMBLER]

I agreed to look at some hands for Guy but instead of just replying to them in the email i'd figure i'd post them ones i pick out here and some a few other people can maybee benefit from them and others can add their comments.

Firstly, these are all going to be very basic, very standard hands, so these are the hands in which the majority of your win rate come from but they are very very boring, so you may not want to read these threads.

I'll bunch the similar hands together in the same thread.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, MP folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, Hero checks.

Flop: (2.40 SB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero folds.

<font color="blue"> I bet the flop against a UTG limper </font>


Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, MP folds, Button calls, SB folds, Hero checks.

Flop: (2.40 SB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: (1.20 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (1.20 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

<font color="blue"> I'd bet the flop had the button checked behind on the flop i think the turn bet _is a must_ </font>

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (3.20 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG folds, Hero folds.

<font color="blue"> Just another boring semi bluff hands. I'd def. bet the flop here, the combination of 1. could be winning 2. could pick it up now 3. could pick it up on the turn 4. can take a free card on the turn rather than the flop 5. if called you have outs 6. if callled you have bluff outs. makes it a bet for me. </font>
Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, MP folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB folds, Hero checks.

Flop: (2.40 SB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero folds.

<font color="blue"> Again, bet. </font>

So yea, just bluff and semi bluff more. I think playing a lot of HU matches will greatly improve this since a lot of profit there comes from picking up these pots and you really can't just be checking it down to let JQo high win the hand.

Yea, dull hands, even if only one other person benefits from it though i'm happy to post.

[kiddo]

I just looked at the hands from another guy (als playing 5/10), his biggest misstake was the same: not betting without a hand in small pot against few players. Maybe we looked at the same hands /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Trix]

You pretty much allways check-fold the turn if they call the flop on these right ?

[1800GAMBLER]

Yep. People don't fold pairs.

[imitation]

Hand 1: You should be betting Axx Kxx Qxx against randoms, infact almost everyhand on any flop.

Hand 2: See hand 1.

Hand 3: See hand 1.

Sorry GUY I wrote your answers emailed them then realised i hadn't attached it and had deleted it. I'm basically to lazy now to go through again but I will soon enough.

HU == Bet

Hand 4:

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
Yep. People don't fold pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

is this always true for when you're semibluffing a weak draw on the flop HU?? I almost always bet in these spots on the flop like you suggest, but depending on the player, I like to fire the 2nd barrell on the turn b/c I find a lot of players who call with ATC on flop, then fold a lot on the turn. Also, I like firing again on the turn if I improve and pick up OESD, gutshot + pair, or gutshot + flushdraw. Of course it sucks getting raised there, but then its usually not too tough to lay down (as the pot usually isn't too big) unless I think most or all of my outs are clean, and/or I'm up against somebody who's likely to semi-bluff raise anytime they've got any type of draw.

[spider]

Agree on the first three, but betting the 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif seems to be taking it to far. Isn't this close to saying lead the flop from the blinds every time there wasn't a PFR?

I don't want to give the 5/10 guys too much credit, but I think they'll catch on to that.

[ALL1N]

[ QUOTE ]
Agree on the first three, but betting the 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif seems to be taking it to far. Isn't this close to saying lead the flop from the blinds every time there wasn't a PFR?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, Kxx flops are the best bluffs.

[LA_Price]

I bet all of these flops except for maybe hand 2 as there are a lot of high cards and a two flush but headsup against a player weak enought to limp on the button I'd probably bet over half the time.

I think the AJ is the worst. You should definetely bet against two opponents 100% of the time. if you're and are raised so be it you probably have 0 outs. If it gets down to one player i'd probably bet the turn as well

I think the general principle in all of these is to be aggressive. You should bet into Kxx Axx, single suited boards quite often when the pot is shorthanded.

[Schneids]

Agree with the gutshot ones but I've never bet and will never start betting the 52 one in my life.

There's no chance people are folding against my bet out from a blind HU on the flop more than 33% of the time.

I'll save my aggression for after I've raised with position with 97s PF and totally whiffed in a pot that's twice as large as this one. I think I'm betting way too often with nothing already to be able to add hands like these in dinky pots to my list of bets.

[helpmeout]

These bets are still very opponent dependent.

Against people who can fold they are definite bets.

Against super passive (only bet with TPTK or better/dont fold) I usually only bet A high hands for value.

[1800GAMBLER]

You guys are weird.

The general concept throughout all these bluffing hands is 'your hand doesn't matter it's because the other guuy will have nothing a large percentage of the time', for example that 52 hand you are all shouting at because 'it's 52s!' it one of the sweetest bluffs ever because of the Kxx board.

No these are not player dependant bluffs, well ok, to the extreme they are but it's not much of a factor. The reason they aren't player dependant is because they either have cards that hit the flop or they have cards that missed the flop, simple. Obviously against a guy with 100% VP$IP you wouldn't bluff because he'll call you down with Q high.

[ QUOTE ]
I almost always bet in these spots on the flop like you suggest, but depending on the player, I like to fire the 2nd barrell on the turn b/c I find a lot of players who call with ATC on flop, then fold a lot on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

The times i fire again on the turn are when i feel the player couldd have called very lightly on the flop, these situations are mostly SB vs BB when you raise. On the fllop K high, A high feel confident.

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't this close to saying lead the flop from the blinds every time there wasn't a PFR?


[/ QUOTE ]

Almost. There are certain flops you obviously shouldn't bet but if you look at it you're bet only has to be successful 2:1 meaning he has to hit the flop 2 in 3 times for the bet not to be good, so just the very action packed flops you should be checking.

re: 52s on K94s [ QUOTE ]
There's no chance people are folding against my bet out from a blind HU on the flop more than 33% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

What? You mean they call with 67% of the holdings they limp with preflop? AJ AT A9 A8 A7 A6 A5? QJ QT Q8s? 77 66 55 44? No way.

[ QUOTE ]
I'll save my aggression for after I've raised with position with 97s PF and totally whiffed in a pot that's twice as large as this one. I think I'm betting way too often with nothing already to be able to add hands like these in dinky pots to my list of bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's cool if players actually adjusted. You can do that in the 100/200 sure, in that game you'd be taking a small +EV situation and giving up a big +EV for it because they will adjust, fastly, correctly. Here they wont.

[Jeff W]

I'd like to thank you for posting these hands. I'm not sure whether I should bet in all these situations(except hand 3 where I think checking behind is inexcusable against two opponents), but you definitely opened up my eyes to the that I am probably not stealing post flop nearly enough.

Glad to see you're contributing to the HUSH forum.

[felson]

[ QUOTE ]
even if only one other person benefits from it though i'm happy to post.

[/ QUOTE ]

These are great. Glad to see you posting in HUSH!

[Guy McSucker]

Hey,

First of all, thanks to Jay for looking over these hands and making these posts.

The flop steals you suggest heads-up in hands 1, 2 and 4 here are something I've not tried much, so I will certainly begin incorporating them into my game.
Have I correctly deduced that the reasons you want to bet these flops are

- the board is raggedy, not too much by way of draws
- it's heads up
- there's one card on the board (A, K,Q) that a bet can represent having paired?

Are you even taking any notice of the fact I have a gutshot in the first two hands? E.g. hand 1 would you bet J5o?

Hand 3, the ace-jack. I felt funny about this one at the time, and I am still not sure about it. I don't want to bet this flop for lots of reasons:

- my success rate at getting everyone to fold after I've raised preflop and missed is very poor indeed. A quick scan of pokertracker reveals that with AKo, I have won a pot without showdown only 13 times out of 213, ignoring times I took it preflop. Am I just running bad?

- anyone with a decent diamond is certainly calling here

- there's a very good chance I am not in front, with the Q and T on board

- since I raised preflop, the two checks mean exactly nothing.

- I don't think betting the turn will be a very good idea if I get called on the flop: they will either have a pair or a diamond, and neither is folding.

But it looks as though my thoughts are exactly wrong, judging by responses. Is everybody sure I need to bet this flop? Why?

See, I knew I played this game badly.

Guy.

[Freakin]

Do any of these flop decisions chance for 1/2 SH? Cause I tried some of this type of play after reading the post last night, and it obviously wasn't as successful as I would have hoped. I eschewed these plays more against total fish, but tried to make them more against the tighter players. Thoughts?

B

[chio]

wow. my standard play is all of these hands would be to not bet, the general concept being that the pot is too small and these boards (except for the last hand) are way too coordinated for me to be taking it down with a bet here very often. maybe i'm losing a lot of money by not doing this?

hand 1
yes you are against a limper HU, and you have gutshot outs, but i think there are too many hands a normal loose player would call with here to make bluffing at this small pot profitable - any pocket pair, A, 8, 9, flush draw or straight draw (like 56, 57, T7, J7, JT, QJ, KQ etc)

hand 2
this one is a little closer i think. but in my experience the opponent will call here with any pp, K, T 8, flush draw, straight draws, and various A high hands. jay, you fold to a flop raise here right?

hand 3
this one is close also, but i think the combination of having 2 opponents and the fact that you have a gutshot to a nut straight makes a check more profitable on the flop here, even with it being a raised pot. if not flops like this (very likely to have hit your opponents, but you have outs), what kind of flops are you checking behind having raised AJo with 2 opponents?

hand 4
i understand that this is a decent board to bluff at, but saying that you're hand doesn't matter here at all is ridiculous. your opponent will fold a lot of the time yes, but having some sort of hand/outs will allow you to win more of the times that he does call, which makes your bet more profitable.

all in all, thanks for posting this, jay. these are just my thoughts, but i may learn more from this post than any other in the past couple months.

"Firstly, these are all going to be very basic, very standard hands, so these are the hands in which the majority of your win rate come from "

this shocked me the most, does everyone agree that these type of hands are where a lot of your profit comes from?

[1800GAMBLER]

I'll go into a little more detail about why i bet in these hands.

1. Because of KQ KJ KT Kxs, 66 77, those alone are enough. Hands like AT a9 a8 ax tj tq qj (iffy) wont be folding though.

2. My main reason for betting here is the button open limped, i wont go into detail as a range of hands buttons limp could cause huge arguments, but even if he has A8 and callls you still have 10 outs (so you'll still win the hand close to 50% of the time), Tx you have 7 outs, etc etc. If raised you fold.

3 and 4. aren't close at all imo. 'but saying that you're hand doesn't matter here at all is ridiculous. your opponent will fold a lot of the time yes, but having some sort of hand/outs will allow you to win more of the times that he does call, which makes your bet more profitable.'


It's not rediculous at all, obviously it would be nicer to have outs, hell it would be nice to have the whole deck as out and the other player drawing dead but no, we don't have that.

The only time you should be thinking about 'i need more outs to bluff' is when the bluff EV rate is at even (a very close decision), then the profit comes from your outs, i.e. you need a bluff to obe success 33% of the time and you KNOW he will call with 67% of the holdings, meaning the bluff here is breakeven yet you can still win a % of the time when you hit your 3 outs etc, bringing your equity up to about 40% and meaing you are making a profit, a 7% profit, 7 cents per dollar, imagine if you could invest any amount you wanted at 7%?

If your bluff is already successful 40% of the time then your outs don't even matter.

I'm pretty sure 52s hand is more profitable than the gutshot hand.

I think the line of 'most of profit comes from these hands' isn't true, i typed that before the post and i expected to have other very standard hands involved but the post turned into standard bluffing situations, which aren't all that huge to your win rate. These hands are important in how you should understand poker theory though.

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
there's one card on the board (A, K,Q) that a bet can represent having paired?

[/ QUOTE ]

Although that's part of it i don't like it worded like that because it kinda off throws the logic. When you say 'represent' a hand you are implying you need to represent a hand to get them to fold, implying they are very thinking players who think closely about if you are bluffing or not, when they have QJo UTG limped on a Kxx board there is no thinking involved. The reason Kxx Jxx boards are SO good is because a lot of their hands stink now; yet obviously still a good percentage of the hands hit.

And yes, it also does suck when he raises you to still think you made the right play, well you did, you were just unlucky you ran into the 30% of the time he's MEANT to have hit pair, not the 70% of the time that you win.

One thing that shocks me is how we don't hand read at all, i don't do it enough and it's easy to see most don't and mulitabling is to blame; because hand reading accurately takes a lot of time.

The best way to spot these bluffs is to just pause for a second before you check your crappy hand as we have been doing for the past 50k times so you can analysis the situation.
1. What position player are you against?
2. He limped/raised?
3. What hands fall into this category
4. Group the hands, say on a Kxx flop, 'All his King hands have pair, all his Ace hands missed and have 3 outs, all his medium high sutied connectors missed, and his pocket pairs could have two overcards to them and def have at least one'
5. Think about what he will do with each GROUP of those hands. King hands will raise. 50% (use your stats to get a more accurate %) of the people holding Ace hands will fold. 50% of the people holding pocket pairs will fold. All suited connectors will fold. This will also highlight the times when a turn bluff is profitable.

It's so simple, it's the basic logic of poker yet it's just not around anymore because we are busy 8 tabling and taking only the HIGHEST EV decisions because we aren't thinking about the hands that 'appear to be standard'.

[1800GAMBLER]

The AJ paired flop hand made me think of this thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1292047&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;sb=5&amp; o=&amp;fpart=all&amp;vc=1) in which Sklansky posts.

[chio]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll go into a little more detail about why i bet in these hands.

1. Because of KQ KJ KT Kxs, 66 77, those alone are enough. Hands like AT a9 a8 ax tj tq qj (iffy) wont be folding though.

2. My main reason for betting here is the button open limped, i wont go into detail as a range of hands buttons limp could cause huge arguments, but even if he has A8 and callls you still have 10 outs (so you'll still win the hand close to 50% of the time), Tx you have 7 outs, etc etc. If raised you fold.

3 and 4. aren't close at all imo. 'but saying that you're hand doesn't matter here at all is ridiculous. your opponent will fold a lot of the time yes, but having some sort of hand/outs will allow you to win more of the times that he does call, which makes your bet more profitable.'


It's not rediculous at all, obviously it would be nicer to have outs, hell it would be nice to have the whole deck as out and the other player drawing dead but no, we don't have that.

The only time you should be thinking about 'i need more outs to bluff' is when the bluff EV rate is at even (a very close decision), then the profit comes from your outs, i.e. you need a bluff to obe success 33% of the time and you KNOW he will call with 67% of the holdings, meaning the bluff here is breakeven yet you can still win a % of the time when you hit your 3 outs etc, bringing your equity up to about 40% and meaing you are making a profit, a 7% profit, 7 cents per dollar, imagine if you could invest any amount you wanted at 7%?

If your bluff is already successful 40% of the time then your outs don't even matter.

I'm pretty sure 52s hand is more profitable than the gutshot hand.

I think the line of 'most of profit comes from these hands' isn't true, i typed that before the post and i expected to have other very standard hands involved but the post turned into standard bluffing situations, which aren't all that huge to your win rate. These hands are important in how you should understand poker theory though.

[/ QUOTE ]

i understand your reasoning a little better now. i think our play diverges because i believe players are looser than you think they are (i.e. hand 1, i think most players will call at least a flop bet with any pocket pair or gutshot). and i think we can agree that we aren't firing a second bluff on the turn in most of these situations (worse odds for your bluff, better chance opp has something, etc).

if you play a lot of party 10/20 6max, we play against the same pool, and perhaps i will need to reexamine my play.

thanks for the response, and great post

[Guy McSucker]

Hi Jay,

Good posts as ever.

The difficulty I have with making these bets is that I am getting called on the flop, and often on the turn, by completely hopeless missed-the-flop trash, even when I'm betting solid made hands. Plenty of players in the Party $5/10 like to call the flop with exactly nothing.

Against such players, I guess you don't make these bets, right? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Sadly for me, categorizing players has always been the worst part of my poker game. Yet another thing to work on I guess.

Guy.

[theBruiser500]

"UTG limper "

What does UTG lipmer tell you? No ace in his hand?

"I'd bet the flop had the button checked behind on the flop i think the turn bet _is a must_ "

I like a flop bet but don't understand the turn bet. If he had nothing I think good chance he bets the flop. The check behind make me afraid he is waiting for the turn to raise which would suck for Guy's draw. Plus he is risking 1 BB to win 1.33 BB, not too great.

"3. could pick it up on the turn 4. "

You plan on betting the turn if one person calls? What if someone raises the flop, do you call? That is expensive.

Good posts.

[1800GAMBLER]

This hand isn't perfectly relevant to any here, however a bet a lot of people don't bet this one and clark explains it better than i (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1459822&amp;page=0&amp;view=colla psed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1&amp;vc=1&amp;PHPSESSID=)