Another bubble call or fold situation

[Gramps]

Old Grandpa was a little confused again on this one. UTG has been raising every hand, so I'm guessing he has a "random hand" here. Anyone have an idea of how J6s does against two random hands? I know it's pretty much a "computer hand" HU, is it wrong to assume that it's a "computer hand" 3-way against two random hands? (if it matters)

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t500 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t182)
Hero (t764)
UTG (t8438)
Button (t616)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t1000</font>, Button folds, SB is <font color="red"> all-in </font>. Hero...

[bigredlemon]

why do you even want to be in the pot?
if UTG wins, you're in the money. If the other guy wins, UTG can't bully you around as easily. Win win. Plus you get to watch some free cards.

And how can you possibly be ahead with J6s???

[CWolf]

What were the blinds?

If they were 150/300 or bigger, you may as well call. If SB wins the hand, and you folded PF, you're done. You still get 3rd if UTG wins, and if you win, you've got a workable stack to play with.

At least if you call here, you have a shot at 2nd place. If SB wins the hand (and he's intelligent enough to fold pretty much any two cards he sees on the next hand), you get 4th anyway.

I hate positions like that.

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
Old Grandpa was a little confused again on this one. UTG has been raising every hand, so I'm guessing he has a "random hand" here. Anyone have an idea of how J6s does against two random hands? I know it's pretty much a "computer hand" HU, is it wrong to assume that it's a "computer hand" 3-way against two random hands? (if it matters)

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t500 (4 handed) converter

SB (t182)
Hero (t764)
UTG (t8438)
Button (t616)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6, J.
UTG raises to t1000, Button folds, SB is all-in . Hero...

[/ QUOTE ]

This is horrible, I don't know why people think its a given at all, firstly first place is practically impossible without calling here. Secondly hero has enough chips left to fold the BB and the SB and be left with 14, in addition to this button will be all-in in 2 hands and SB will be all-in in 3 hands time again even if he does win this hand vs UTG.

J6s is a money favourite against one random hand but only marginally, I suspect that against 2 random hands it is about 34% (a guess), if the button is as aggro as you suggest you may well have over a 50% of 2nd or 3rd place only, which seems like a better deal than calling here, I fold.

Regards Mack

[Gramps]

Let's assume my J6s is against two random hands, and each of the three hands will get equal placings of 1st, 2nd, and 3rd (if that's not accurate in reality, it's probably still pretty close).

So there are 6 possible combinations of placings among the three players. Of those 6 combinations, I finish fourth only once - even if SB wins the hand, if I come in 2nd I'm still very alive with about 1k in chips from the side pot. So...I only get eliminated if SB wins and UTG comes in second - that should only happen about 17% of the time.

Not that J6s makes one jump up and down for joy in this spot, but the above is what makes it interesting to contemplate. If I had 62o or some other garbage, I think I'm clicking the fold button pretty fast.

[kalooki45]

[ QUOTE ]
J6s is a money favourite against one random hand but only marginally,

[/ QUOTE ]
Mack, could you be nice and explain how you get these precentages? I keep asking people, but no one answers!
(I suppose they think I'm too hopeless to bother with)
I keep asking, though! lol
pass the bananas...

[PoBoy321]

This is interesting in that there's such a massive difference in the chip stacks between 1st and 2nd. First question, your stack of 762, is that before or after you post the BB? If it's before, you have to call. There's just no other option. If it's after, then I would say fold and don't get involved with a pot with another all-in. You're at a point where you're basically going to have to move all-in with any 2 anyway, so why not wait out this hand and see if SB gets knocked out. Surmounting such a huge chip deficit is nearly impossible at this point and I think that 2nd or 3rd are your only real choices. I think that this is close, but it's a fold and hope that the SB gets knocked out so that you finish in the money, or at the very least can move in with an A or K.

[ChrisV]

[ QUOTE ]
Mack, could you be nice and explain how you get these precentages?

[/ QUOTE ]

From here (http://gocee.com/poker/HE_Value.htm). Among other sites.

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]


Quote:
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J6s is a money favourite against one random hand but only marginally,


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Mack, could you be nice and explain how you get these precentages? I keep asking people, but no one answers!
(I suppose they think I'm too hopeless to bother with)
I keep asking, though! lol
pass the bananas...

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure thing, there are a number of interesting utilities for calculating such things on the internet.

I use Poker Stove which can be downloaded for free at, www.pokerstove.com (http://www.pokerstove.com) this is a utility for evaluating a hand or range of hands against another hand or range of hands, including a random hand.

Regards Mack

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's assume my J6s is against two random hands, and each of the three hands will get equal placings of 1st, 2nd, and 3rd (if that's not accurate in reality, it's probably still pretty close).


[/ QUOTE ]

Its somewhere between 33.5% and 33.7%, so pretty close to 1/3rd.

Regards Mack

[DonButtons]

Is your name crazygramps or partypoker. I think I saw this hand in the bubble of a $200 sng last night.

I cant rememeber now, but I think gamboholic_ was in that hand as well.

Its one of those hands I was like WTF, but im pretty sure you tripled up.

What if the shortstack survived? I would fold and play the which short stack dies first game.

[stripsqueez]

UTG should raise everything given the potential to win chips before the flop when you fold

despite the likelyhood my hand is ok against 2 random hands first seems a long way off and you have 2 shots at winning by folding - i fold

stripsqueez - chickenhawk