Please comment on these NFL bets

I don't bet the over/under much but I would like to get feedback on whether or not these lines are good. They look exceptionally good to me, but I'm not sure.


TB/MIN 38: The under looks awfully good here. Expect TB to shut down MIN pretty effectively. TB offense not good, they could barely score on Dallas. TB is the NFC version of Baltimore so I expect them to beat MIN 10-7 or something like that. Is this too far off?


NO/NYG 37: There are four good defenses in the NFC. Those are TB, NO, NYG, and PHI squeeking in there too. With two of the those best defenses going head to head, and one of them with a sub-mediocre offense (that's NYG of course), I expect a game like 13-10 or something. Betting the under here looks really good to me!


Denver/Baltimore 41: Hunh? I expect the Denver defense to effective shut down Baltimore, especially since they're at home. So now we have to expect Denver to put up around 30 or more against Baltimore? That seems like a stretch and a half.


Please correct me or point out some pitfalls with these bets. Thanks!


natedogg

I find totals rather unpredictable early season as teams are still finding their rhythm on both sides of the ball. I stick to mildly backing the sides, but to comment on these:


1. Much prefer the over, TB is a sneaky over team. They play in more high scoring games than people seem to think because on occasion they get into real low scoring slugfests that stay in the public's mind. Look at last year, they had 12 games at 37 points or more when Joe average bettor probably is thinking they play half their games at 20 points or less. This year's team probably is better offensively once everyone gets on the same page and with three weeks of practice they should look a lot better than they did in Big D. Last six meetings in this series: 53, 54, 35, 41, 38, 51 points, so no easy unders among them. Have to say this one is close to a bet for me to the over.


2. Probably a good spot to go under. Saints are similar to TB in that they can light it up more than you think, but this looks like a tight matchup. As long as one team isn't more than one score ahead there will be a lot of rushing which of course helps under plays.


3. At some point those Raven turnovers are going to lead to something. Either they hang onto the ball and score more, because the yardage is there, or they get more of them returned for TD just like they had happen last week. In any case Den is not a good team to bet under at home. They get a lot of blowouts which kill most under bets and they get a little sloppy on defense because they are very aggressive and take more risks at home when the crowd gets them pumped. Risky defense equals big plays, but both ways so an under bet is precarious.

I would stay away from DEN/BAL.


my thoughts : there may be 20% more plays in this game than in most games. why? because DEN won't be able to run on the BAL defense. Even when CIN beat BAL, Dillon only had 50 yards. DEN will have to pass. BAL has zero running offense, and Rhodes is smart enough to stack the defense against Ogden knowing that BAL can only run to the left side, since Searcy is out on the left. That's what happened in the CIN game (or at least that's what I read on ESPN.com about what happened). So, BAL will have to pass a lot again. So you got two teams passing more than you would expect them in this particular spot. Which will lead to volatility as far as points scored...which makes the O/U much much more unpredicatble in my opinion. If one team is successful and other is not, it will be a blowout that goes under. but if they both have success passing (which may also lead to int for tds or int in bad position), then it may well be a somewhat tight game, but high scoring. all in all, i have zero confidence in betting either side in this one.