100+8 SnG bubble...

[otnemem]

Let me preface this by saying that I missed the first few rounds of this tourney due to network issues. We started with $1500 each, $10-20 blind. By the time I got everything back up and running, I was down to about $1325 at $15-30 blinds, which switched to $25-50 a few hands later. Basically, my standard opening raise was already costing me 15% of my stack. Anyway, I managed to steal the chip lead by the time we were four handed with $200-400 blinds. Then this hand came up...

(PS: Converter doesn't work for Pokerroom tourneys. Sorry.)

Seat 1: kid_comeback [6D,7D] ($5,315 in chips)
Seat 4: iofferpeace ($2,095 in chips)
Seat 5: Nick Dollar ($2,890 in chips)
Seat 8: A_Poker_Mind ($4,700 in chips)

ANTES/BLINDS
iofferpeace posts blind ($200), Nick Dollar posts blind ($400).

PRE-FLOP
A_Poker_Mind folds, kid_comeback bets $1,200, iofferpeace folds, Nick Dollar bets $2,490 and is all-in, kid_comeback ????

Thoughts?

[pshreck]

First of all, I think you should just push at this stage. By raising like this, you give him the opportunity to put the decision to you. He might have folded to a push, but will get his chips in if he can reraise and have folding equity against a steal.

I think you should fold this. If you call and lose (which is likely probably 2x out of 3 or more), you will be struggling now to place. Forget pot odds, and think about risking your chips only after you make the money, especially considering your cards are junk here.

[SmileyEH]

You are getting 3-1, there is no way you can fold here. Next time push.

-SmileyEH

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
Forget pot odds, and think about risking your chips only after you make the money, especially considering your cards are junk here.

[/ QUOTE ]

WHAT?

-SmileyEH

[pshreck]

[ QUOTE ]
You are getting 3-1, there is no way you can fold here. Next time push.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

How is there no way he can fold? Solid chance he is facing an overpair, better than solid chance he is facing 2 overcards or better. It's not about pot odds for the most part when you are playing bubble poker in an SNG.

He has 7 HIGH, 3-1 odds against a guy who is glady going all in and expecting to be called. Its not an easy call, nor would I make it.

EDIT

Smiley...

He is very likely atleast a 3 to 2 dog, and probably worse. If he loses, he has the least amount of chips, and not by a small amount. He will most likely lose this hand. He does not need to build his stack at this point, as he is in good position for the money.

It is not a good call, and Ill stand by that.

[Munkster]

I agree with Smiley. Push next time, but in this situation, it is an easy call. Even if you lose this pot, you are definitly not out of the game with your stack size. The call here is laying you 3 to 1 odds, AA to 67d is 3.5 to 1 and that is the worst case senerio (an overpair). Anything else he might have you only need 2 to 1 odds to call (overcards to 67s is only a 1.5 to 1 favourite, At/A7 to 67d is also less than 2 to 1 favourite).

Making into the money shouldn't be your only concern, it's what place you come in the money. If the payout was even for the top 3, then there is a better argument for laying it down (I still would call). But the payout should definitely be more top heavy which makes this an easy call.

[otnemem]

Okay, firstly, I don't know why the idea is to push with over 10x BB. That seems a bit excessive with the blinds as they are. I don't feel like risking all of my chips without the option of getting away from a (very) mediocre hand.

Anyway, at the time, my basic thought process was that there was a good chance that my cards were live. I know that I'm a big dog to any pair but 2s through 5s, but for some reason I felt like his all-in was a desperation move, so thats why i had a decision to make...

[pshreck]

If you want the ability to get away from the hand.... and the BB pushes, then why are you even asking? He pushed, you have 7 high... you fold. You can't really steal at these blind levels if you aren't willing to go all the way.

I would forget stealing with low suited connectors.

[Munkster]

The reason to push here is exactly because of the situation you encountered, by raising your standard amount (3x), when the other guy comes over the top, you have odds (and definitely should) call. Since you are calling any raise, why not go allin to start with? This will reduce any folding equity the opponent perceives and he'll fold more hands. If he was a bigger stack, I might raise 2 - 2.5 x bb with the intention to fold if he reraises me back. However in your situation, you have odds to call any reraise from him, so you should have pushed in the first place.

[ChrisV]

Man. This thread is almost pure misinformation.

You have to call here. Versus an overpair you are very close to having pot odds to call, versus two overcards you have a massive overlay. You won't be anything like crippled if you call, you'll still be third in chips. If you win your big stack will give you a lot of power.

Saying that preflop you have more than 10BB is true but not relevant because neither of the other stacks still in the hand have 10BB. Your effective stack is only 2890, so you should push preflop if you want to raise.

It's a style thing whether you want to raise at all preflop. BB's stack is a reasonable size. With the other big stack on the table you might want to pull your head in until the blinds increase a bit. I think both push and fold are OK.