A hand, KJs

[Khern]

This hand's based on an actual hand that was played by a friend in the 4/8@bellagio, but some parts may be fictional(due to my poor memory)

Hero is in BB with KcJc. MP limps, CO raises, hero calls, limper calls.

Flop (6 sb): 9c 6c 3d. Check, check, bet. Hero calls, MP folds

Turn (4 bb): Ks. Check, Bet, hero Calls

River: either blank, check, bet, call, or club, check, check. (I forget.)

Villian showed AA.


Who plays the flop and turn like that? If I'm on top of my game, I think I checkraise the flop and lead on the turn unless an Ace falls, but I'm not sure. After thinking this, I went to pokerstove...

From pokerstove:
51,480 games 0.016 secs 3,217,500 games/sec

Board: 9c 6c 3d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 46.2005 % [ 00.46 00.00 ] { KcJc }
Hand 2: 53.7995 % [ 00.54 00.00 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }


So, you're a little behind vs premium hands, but you probably have fold equity vs AK who is actually ahead of you(45.3-54.7). And you're ahead of TT(53-46) which will usually call incorrectlly. At 50.7-49.3, you're just a hair ahead of AQ. (additional enumerations not shown.)

Any thoughts? Are these things enough to make a more aggressive approach correct/reasonable?

-John

[J.R.]

You don't describe the CO then you run a pokerstove analysis that fairly limtis his range of hands. How to play depends on the relative tightness of the pfr but in general I would think a CO raise after a limper is more than the hands you describe unless the guy is pretty passive (not to suggest these pretty passive types aren't common, as they are, but you will usually recognize them pretty quickly).

I would usually chekc-raise this flop unless the guy was tight and passive. Given the play in the ahnd so far I would check-call the turn and lead a river blank so as to prevent the opponent from checking behind. You have a decent chance of getting paid off to as the draw missed and your play looks liek a desperation bluff with a missed flush draw. How to play the rivered flush kind depends on the opponents passivesness and value bettign tenacity, but I think I would lead a river flush card if he is a tight and by the book as your sim seems to indicate.

[SamIAm]

I don't think I'd check-raise the flop, just bet-out. Lots of easy folders on that flop, not that much chance of somebody betting-out.

If I have top-pair medium-kicker WITH the second-flush draw on the turn, you can expect me to raise you if you bet into me. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

If the river's a blank, bet. Duh. If it's a club, I wouldn't try for the check-raise, just bet-out.
-Sam

[J.R.]

Lots of easy folders on that flop, not that much chance of somebody betting-out.

There are only 2 other players in the hand, not sure what lots of easy folders means. One of your opponents was the pfr, and he can be expected to bet a fair bit of the time and probably won't fold even overcards for a bet here. Also think about the relative position of the other player with respect to you and the pfr. A check-raise confronts him with two bets, doesn't it? If you goal is to get him to fold and put the heat on the pfr by following through on a non-ace turn, a check-raise isn't horrible, is it?

If I have top-pair medium-kicker WITH the second-flush draw on the turn, you can expect me to raise you if you bet into me

Its hard to get bet into when you are first to act. Think about the possible range of the pfr's hands, and think about what those hands will do if you check the turn, your opponent bets and then you check-raise. Now think about what you want your opponent to do with that those hands. The ones he folds (hands that can't beat a K) you probably want to call and/pay off a river bet, and the ones that 3-bet or call (AA, KK, AK, KQ, etc) you probably want to fold.

[Khern]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't describe the CO then you run a pokerstove analysis that fairly limtis his range of hands

[/ QUOTE ]

That's fair. I actually did expand the hands with a couple of runs and it didn't change a lot. I think Hero's win % got a little better. The guy hadn't been sitting that long. He seemed a little bit aggresive, but not too much.

Thanks for your thoughts,
John