Iconoclastic
12-17-2004, 03:13 PM
Disclaimer: the pronoun 'he' in the following post refers to the type of player that I'm encountering, not one specific person.
This is happening to me frequently lately. 6 player SnG (1+.1 on Superior Poker). Top two pay. It's down to heads up between me and a Loose player. By this time I usually have 3000 chips and he will have 6000 due to his Loose style with blinds at 200-400.
This is what he does:
Preflop never raise, call any raise with anything. I don't have a problem with the passivity although sometimes I get trapped. But I can make up for it by outdrawing him and getting in as a favorite when I have a good hand.
EVERY single flop, when I don't bet, he will bet the minimum, whether he has nothing at all, something, or the nuts. And if I don't reraise him, he'll repeat this for the Turn and River as well. He will call a raise or reraise with anything as well, so any bluffing is out of the question. Once he called a pot all in bet on the Flop with 7 high!!
My dilemma is this: the minimum now is getting to be about a ninth of my stack or more, making it a push or fold situation because if I call minimum bets to the river and lose, it'll be "I'm desperate and have to gamble with any 2" the next hand anyway.
If I only push when I have at least medium pair, that leaves about 70% of the time when I will be folding. So he'll be taking the pot 70% of the time, which bleeds my stack even more. Let's assume he'll call every time I push (30% of the hands). If I win 66% of those pushes (a rough estimate because sometimes he'll have a better hand and sometimes he'll outdraw me). My calculations indicate, assuming the premises are correct, that this strategy will yield an EV of +18 chips. 18!! Is that the best I can do??
If I push with at least low pair instead of medium pair, which I would say happens 35% of the time instead of 30%, and I win around 60% of those pushes instead of 66%, my EV goes down to negative.
If I push with at least Top Pair, I'd say that would be 20% of the time, and I win 75% of my Pushes with him calling everytime, that would also yield a -EV.
I can't tighten up anymore postflop because even folding once at this stage makes our stacks 6400-2600, and after merely one more fold it becomes 6800-2200, which again makes my situation desperate.
Am I left with, 'if ya can't beat em, join em?" Just call every minimum bet to the river every hand no matter what I have?
Another possible strategy is to fold everytime I'm the small blind unless I push. Assuming I push 30% of the time and he'll call every time and I'll win 66% of the time, this yields a EV of +45chips. However, I'm not sure if they'll call everytime preflop. If they only call 50% of the time (presumably with a more selective hand) I push a good hand from the SB my EV becomes negative. But this still doesn't solve the main problem when I'm in the BB.
Mathematical analysis is appreciated.
This is happening to me frequently lately. 6 player SnG (1+.1 on Superior Poker). Top two pay. It's down to heads up between me and a Loose player. By this time I usually have 3000 chips and he will have 6000 due to his Loose style with blinds at 200-400.
This is what he does:
Preflop never raise, call any raise with anything. I don't have a problem with the passivity although sometimes I get trapped. But I can make up for it by outdrawing him and getting in as a favorite when I have a good hand.
EVERY single flop, when I don't bet, he will bet the minimum, whether he has nothing at all, something, or the nuts. And if I don't reraise him, he'll repeat this for the Turn and River as well. He will call a raise or reraise with anything as well, so any bluffing is out of the question. Once he called a pot all in bet on the Flop with 7 high!!
My dilemma is this: the minimum now is getting to be about a ninth of my stack or more, making it a push or fold situation because if I call minimum bets to the river and lose, it'll be "I'm desperate and have to gamble with any 2" the next hand anyway.
If I only push when I have at least medium pair, that leaves about 70% of the time when I will be folding. So he'll be taking the pot 70% of the time, which bleeds my stack even more. Let's assume he'll call every time I push (30% of the hands). If I win 66% of those pushes (a rough estimate because sometimes he'll have a better hand and sometimes he'll outdraw me). My calculations indicate, assuming the premises are correct, that this strategy will yield an EV of +18 chips. 18!! Is that the best I can do??
If I push with at least low pair instead of medium pair, which I would say happens 35% of the time instead of 30%, and I win around 60% of those pushes instead of 66%, my EV goes down to negative.
If I push with at least Top Pair, I'd say that would be 20% of the time, and I win 75% of my Pushes with him calling everytime, that would also yield a -EV.
I can't tighten up anymore postflop because even folding once at this stage makes our stacks 6400-2600, and after merely one more fold it becomes 6800-2200, which again makes my situation desperate.
Am I left with, 'if ya can't beat em, join em?" Just call every minimum bet to the river every hand no matter what I have?
Another possible strategy is to fold everytime I'm the small blind unless I push. Assuming I push 30% of the time and he'll call every time and I'll win 66% of the time, this yields a EV of +45chips. However, I'm not sure if they'll call everytime preflop. If they only call 50% of the time (presumably with a more selective hand) I push a good hand from the SB my EV becomes negative. But this still doesn't solve the main problem when I'm in the BB.
Mathematical analysis is appreciated.