10/20 Borgata QQ SB hand (play-along style)

[bdk3clash]

This hand took place at the 10/20 game at the Borgata on Wednesday night. I'm going to take it street-by-street.

Let's get the preflop shenanigoats out of the way first.

2 bad (loose, mainly passive) EP players limp, erratic MP player raises (he has done this with many suited Aces, small and medium pairs, etc.), decent as far as I can tell (seems tight and aggressive preflop, too passive posftlop, though he's new to the game I'm not entirely confident in my read, as usual) LMP player 3-bets.

I am in the SB with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gifQ/images/graemlins/club.gif and I...

[Entity]

Nice description of LMP. It took me three reads to figure out that was all for one person.

Oh yeah -- hero capsies.

Rob

[bdk3clash]

I was, uh, merely trying to convey the cluelessness and confusion I felt at the time. Mission accomlished!

[cold_cash]

I'm all for capping.

[djoyce003]

hero caps

[Monty Cantsin]

This is one of those situations where you can choose to not cap in order to see what MP does for, you know, informational purposes. Capping for value is another obvious possibility although with QQ out of position against a pfr and a 3-bet I want to play it lightly, especially until I see a flop. I probably just call.

/mc

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
This is one of those situations where you can choose to not cap in order to see what MP does for, you know, informational purposes. Capping for value is another obvious possibility although with QQ out of position against a pfr and a 3-bet I want to play it lightly, especially until I see a flop. I probably just call.

/mc

[/ QUOTE ]
Monty,

Given the knowledge of a bad, too loose raiser in MP and TAG gish (or at least decent) player probably isolating in LP, isn't it better to cap for A) value, and B) the fact that MP isn't likely to cap here? There's a lot of dead money in this pot too.

Rob

[Redeye]

This is live, and I'm not sure with the play at the Borgata, but is the cap 4 bets or 5 there? Anyways, I'd cap and try and get the other clowns out of the hand. I think waiting to see if MP caps doesn't do much good because he could be one of those guys that says "Its gonna get capped anyways, I might as well do it".

[bdk3clash]

4-bet (bet + 3 raises) cap on all streets in AC.

[ErrantNight]

cippity cap yo' self.

wouldn't mine dead money folding, wouldn't mind dead money calling along. not sure if MP2 cap means anything (if he's decent he could cap with a lot of hands I beat, he could cap with a monster, he could cap with something unworthy of a cap).

I think I smell an argument for not having this capped if the two EP likely are calling and sticking around making it harder to protect your hand on later streets...

But I think you have and will have so much equity here so frequently that I, uh, well read the first line.

[bdk3clash]

OK, preflop was moderately interesting but is hardly the crux of this hand.

I capped, BB folded, everyone called. 5 of us see the flop for 21 SBs/10.5 BBs.

Flop comes J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif6/images/graemlins/club.gif.

I bet, both EP players call, MP calls, PF3B raises, and I...

Feel free to disagree with the initial flop bet, but I'm mainly interested in a flop line and a general plan for the rest of the hand.

[MRBAA]

You've likely got the best hand or a strong contender. Only AA and KK crush you at this point. Cap it up now, with the understanding that an Ace on the flop (and, to a lesser extent a King) is probably a disaster.

[chief444]

Either 3-bet now or call and check/raise turn if no A or K comes. I lean towards the latter.

[MRBAA]

I'd three bet it here and see who folds and if the raiser caps. With this many players and one of them giving you a raise after you capped post flop -- it's not good. If you narrow it down to three of you with a reraise and the raiser doesn't cap the flop, I bet out on the turn. If the raiser does cap the flop, or everyone calls two more, I probably check call the turn and river, depending on the board.

[ErrantNight]

I don't think you're in danger of this getting checked through, the bet is likely coming from late position, there's no way to protect your hand, you're likely ahead but you're not getting overcards or a diamond draw (and maybe not EP to fold with weird backdoor gutshot nonsense draws)...

don't know if this is just a weak/tight afternoon for me, but I see this as being an ok spot to wait for the turn with the intention of c/r a LP bet assuming a friendly card.

I think EP both call your bet regardless, which means your two aggressors are calling, uh, anything and everything, might be right to raise with marginal holdings, leaving you out of position on the turn against 4 opponents with no hope in hey-ell to protect yo' self. Of course, your preflop cap helped set this up :-)

I don't disagree with betting for value...

I just question if I check with intention of calling, perhaps 3-betting if it's bet/raised before it gets to me to try and drive out EP, and waiting until the turn to see where I stand.

I just don't see any way anyone's going anywhere on this flop, and I think you can make up a marginal loss in value betting here on the turn when your equity may increase.

I've argued the exact OPPOSITE of this point in the past, but have been convinced that this line works... is it appropriate here, ya think?

[Redeye]

I don't think there is much good in c/r on the flop here since you won't be able to protect your hand. As you played it, do you think this guy is capable of raising the entire field with AK at this point? (Unless its AK of diamonds). From here on out, I would just call his flop raise and see what develops on the turn. I'd fold to any A or K on the turn, or hopefully spike a Q. If no A or K comes on the turn I might bet out again and see what the 3-bettor does. If he raises, maybe I can fold here, if he calls then I think my hand is probably good and bet the river. Is a turn fold to weak if he raises?

[ErrantNight]

I hear yah... I like the cap... I just said I smelled the argument of calling with the intention of waiting to be raised (which, in fact, i think i advocate on the flop), but i definitely cap this flop... and I think it's pretty easy.

[MoreWineII]

Seems like there are two main options:

1. 3-bet now.

2. Call & raise a non-scary turn. Equity will be higher, you can't protect your hand on the flop anyway (although maybe you can by facing the callers with two more bets), blah blah blah.

In this case, I'd tend to go with option 1. You might fold these other guys (misc. aces, kings, etc) for 2 more bets. It would be nice to get heads up with the PF3B'er. This pot is already getting big, do everything you can to increase your chances of winning it.

[bdk3clash]

MRBAA is likely referring to me capping preflop; on this flop I am going to get capped, not cap myself, if it comes to that.

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
don't know if this is just a weak/tight afternoon for me, but I see this as being an ok spot to wait for the turn with the intention of c/r a LP bet assuming a friendly card.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like trying to c/r the PFR on the turn because the only thing I see us ahead of at this point (assuming no A or K fall on the turn) is AK, and if we check to him, he's going to take a free card here fairly often.

[ErrantNight]

yeah yeah... i think i'm mainly struggling with how best to apply the wait 'til the turn in large pots concept... my default is to bet out on the flop, and i'm searching for the correct time to do otherwise... hence my "argument" to try it... but I know I don't have this down... and revisiting I think this pretty clearly isn't a great spot for it.

[ErrantNight]

so was I... I just forgot to type "pre" in front of flop...

really, I like the cap for the reasons I specified... I've seen an argument pop up not to, I was just saying I thought someone might argue it.

It was misleading, and a lil dumb to bring it up there, particularly since I wasn't advocating it, and I wasn't "anticipating" it with a counter argument (which might have been equally useless)...

So, yeah.

I think my interest lies mainly on the flop. The QQ hand had me thinking along similar lines, and I'm wondering when/if to apply a wait for the turn to increase my chances of winning the pot (and, to a lesser extent, protect my hand) when it's this big.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, preflop was moderately interesting but is hardly the crux of this hand.

I capped, BB folded, everyone called. 5 of us see the flop for 21 SBs/10.5 BBs.

Flop comes J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif6/images/graemlins/club.gif.

I bet, both EP players call, MP calls, PF3B raises, and I...

Feel free to disagree with the initial flop bet, but I'm mainly interested in a flop line and a general plan for the rest of the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ugh. Pot is huge, and no one is folding for two cold here. I'd like calling and checkraising the turn, but LP is passive, so I don't think he has AJs very often here. He's got JJ-AA. I also can't see him betting if checked to with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

Bugger. Tough decision; I'd probably checkraise the turn anwyay, but I really don't know.

Rob

[Monty Cantsin]

[ QUOTE ]
...TAGgish (or at least decent) player probably isolating in LP...

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 3 players in the pot already, this doesn't look like an isolation play. But I appear to be in the minority here.

/mc

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
...TAGgish (or at least decent) player probably isolating in LP...

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 3 players in the pot already, this doesn't look like an isolation play. But I appear to be in the minority here.

/mc

[/ QUOTE ]
What I meant by isolation is that MP has a bad hand, and EP limpers likely have worse hands. That gives TAG quite a big reange of hands for 3-betting preflop, which yes, include AK and AK/AA, but also include AJs and AQs and quite possibly even KQs. Probably 99, TT, definitely JJ,QQ. So yeah, I definitely think there's value in a cap.

Rob

[Monty Cantsin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
...TAGgish (or at least decent) player probably isolating in LP...

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 3 players in the pot already, this doesn't look like an isolation play. But I appear to be in the minority here.

/mc

[/ QUOTE ]
What I meant by isolation is that MP has a bad hand, and EP limpers likely have worse hands. That gives TAG quite a big reange of hands for 3-betting preflop, which yes, include AK and AK/AA, but also include AJs and AQs and quite possibly even KQs. Probably 99, TT, definitely JJ,QQ. So yeah, I definitely think there's value in a cap.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a big range for TAG who runs a bit passive post flop. The PFR was described as erratic, not a maniac. I'm putting TAG on a smaller and higher range than you are. Nevertheless I would definitely consider capping for all the obvious reasons, so I totally see the value. This is just one of those rare situations where I also see quite a bit of extra value in the additional maneuverability I might gain later by not jumping on top of the dogpile but sneaking in... Lansing style!

Wow, I think I've defeated my own argument.

/mc

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Wow, I think I've defeated my own argument.

[/ QUOTE ]
LOL.

TAG was described as tight and aggressive preflop, too passive postflop, which gives me that hand range. It could be very well too wide.

Erratic, maniac -- I see a difference but I don't think it's huge. If he's been raising with medium and small pocket pairs and suited Aces, he's probably not terrible, but I'm guessing that his PFR is over 20% (assuming he raises standard hands and throws those into the mix).

Maybe we remove 99 and KQs from my list, but I still thing a TAG is 3-betting with TT and AJs+ against a player of that description. And QQ is very good there.

Anyway, preflop is pretty boring actually. What's your turn line? The "too passive" part really throws a wrench into my plans.

Rob

[turnipmonster]

I think that there's a very real chance bdk is behind here. usually when there's very significant action preflop (i.e. you are reasonably certain opponent has a big pair or AK), and you have the worst possible overpair it is hard to give a lot of action if opponent is playing back at you. on a JTx flop, AA can bet and raise and expect to get action from QQ/KK. QQ however cannot expect to get action from TT, and thus giving excessive action with QQ on that type of flop is IMO not a good idea (obviously this only applies if you can narrow your opponent's hand range down sufficiently).

practically, IMO it still doesn't mean that you aren't going to showdown, but it does mean that there is less value in protecting your hand, because if we are behind, some percentage of every dollar that goes into the pot is going to the best made hand and the best draw, of which we have neither. in short, if we don't have the best hand then we are the overlay. not a good situation.

so, if bdk thinks there is a pretty good chance opponent has AA-KK, I think he does better getting to a showdown cheap, since very few draws will not have a legit overlay, and I am not sure it is correct to put the third guy on a 5 outer, which is the only thing that should fold the turn to 2 cold.

--turnipmonster

[ErrantNight]

I think there's a very good chance he's behind, too, and the card on the turn will very much determine whether he should check raise. But there's a lot of hands our primary villain could raise this flop with... including draws.

But he's not trying to necessarily fold the third guy. He's c/r on the turn to clean up overcard outs or bizarre fish draws from the EP fish. If he's really drawing to 2 outs already, I'm not sure it makes much difference if he folds them out or not, but I think you need to operate under the possibility that a thinking TAG could be betting/raising a decent range of hands, and believe you're ahead until you find out otherwise.

If he's ahead, he wants to fold/overcharge/limittheodds to anyone drawing live against him.

[Monty Cantsin]

[ QUOTE ]
What's your turn line? The "too passive" part really throws a wrench into my plans.

[/ QUOTE ]

My initial plan was to check/call the flop and check/raise a non A, non K turn. That seems to have the best chance of protecting my hand when I am ahead of the TAG. If he checks through the turn, so be it.

/mc

[MoreWineII]

So, are you advocating a turn check-raise? If so, what does hero do if his opponent 3-bets? Then he's *really* no man's land.

My primary goal(s) in this hand would be to eliminate the hangers-on and then try to get to showdown as cheaply as possible with the PF3B.

The problem is that I don't know what the best way is to do that.

[ErrantNight]

i don't think you can get rid of hangers on on the flop... and i'm not sure you can't be certain that when you bet the PF3b doesn't raise the field with a bunch of callers inbetween. i think you end up in this situation a lot, with no clue of where you stand, and no chance of protecting your hand on the turn.

i might be wrong... but this is where i get into thinking c/call the flop, c/r the turn depending on the card and the flop action.

i might raise the flop, since even calling turkeys sometimes get scared when the preflop capper 3-bets the field, and this eliminates the uncomfortable scenario of being 3-bet on the turn. but if you're behind now you're behind on the turn (short of a miracle queen) and you might get capped on the flop and then where are you?

if you wait 'til the turn, you can re-evaluate depending on what falls. on the flop, i prefer to think of the EP as dead money that i can't get out quite yet. on the turn... still dead, but i might be able to fold them.

[turnipmonster]

what hands that are drawing live against him will/should fold to two cold on the turn? 5 outers, and that's pretty much it. and charging draws matters little if hero has 1-2 outs, which could very well be the case if he's against AA-KK and a flush draw.

I really don't want to sound weak tight here, but I really am not seeing a lot of benefits to a turn checkraise. I maintain that protecting your hand in this situation (given the read on the preflop 3 bettor) is of dubious value, and in many cases is flat out chip spewing.

--turnipmonster

[ErrantNight]

assuming that we check/call the flop, they're still getting immense odds on the turn, but they're far worse, and the c/r is a much more powerful play on the turn. just as people make the mistake of not calling with correct odds, they fold when they have correct odds.

i don't think jamming the pot on the flop is correct because there's too many cards that can beat you (as simple as overcards)... AA might be ok, KK too, QQ i think is about the cut-off. I also don't think you can check/call again on the turn, as your opponents will be correct to call with ANYTHING. even if they're correct to call, if i'm ahead, i want to bet/raise when my edge is greater, which it MIGHT be come the turn. it also might save me bets if an A drops on the turn. i don't think with this many opponents getting to a showdown cheaply is correct... my hand very likely can't sustain two more cards against a billion opponents.

i think the best chance to maximimize my chances of winning is on the turn. sometimes PF3B has me drawing virtually dead... but he'd be correct to play hands that I beat this same way, and on this flop i stand essentially no chance of getting him to fold a better hand, or hand with a legitimate draw to a better hand, to fold before the river, if then. so i probably need to have him beat. i don't know whether or not i do, so all i can and want to do is cut down the rest of the field, give them a chance to make incorrect folds, give them a chance to make incorrect calls, or cut down on their effective odds if they're correct to call.

[chief444]

You have me convinced.

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
what hands that are drawing live against him will/should fold to two cold on the turn? 5 outers, and that's pretty much it. and charging draws matters little if hero has 1-2 outs, which could very well be the case if he's against AA-KK and a flush draw.

I really don't want to sound weak tight here, but I really am not seeing a lot of benefits to a turn checkraise. I maintain that protecting your hand in this situation (given the read on the preflop 3 bettor) is of dubious value, and in many cases is flat out chip spewing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree 100% with you here. I don't understand what a turn c/r is going to accomplish. It will still be presenting the field with about 9:1 odds in which you don't protect your hand agaisnt anything but gutshot draws and 3 out overcard hands. If we're good and villian has AK (or maybe AQ), then we don't care what overcards the other clowns have anyways. If we check and we are ahead of villian's AK or AKd then he probably will take a free card which I don't think is great. If we bet and get called by the others and are still raised, there is little chance that we are ahead IMO. (Assuming our read of this guy being decent is accurate). I think the best line is to bet the turn and see what villian does.

Edit: Also, if we get 3-bet after c/r, do you plan on calling down? There is no chance we are ahead if 3-bet on our turn c/r.

[ErrantNight]

i've detailed in a number of places what a turn c/r COULD accomplish, but it's predicated largely on playing the flop differently (although our c/r after a flop bet looks a little stronger... it makes the odds horrible)

betting the flop has set up the raise from the end potentially free card for our villain (although, if checked to, he obviously still has that option).

if we c/r the turn, and everyone calls like you think they will, TAG AGAIN could raise (3-bet, here) a number of holdings for value that you beat.

that's a worse case scenario. admittedly folding hands drawing live is a best case scenario. giving a free card is bad, but as you say, anyone with a good draw is calling anyway. i think that risk is offset by the potential gain.

i think that in betting the flop you make betting the turn more necessary. but then, why not go ahead and 3-bet the flop? you face the field with worse odds, they know they're stuck between two people who like their hands, and even if they call, if they don't improve on the turn and you lead out, they might have the odds to call one bet but they certainly might fear getting caught for several more raises on the turn.

really, i think these decisions are all relatively close, with only folding being bad. without KNOWING what the turn card is, i think calling/raising the flop is close, and planning to c/r or bet the turn is close.

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
if we c/r the turn, and everyone calls like you think they will, TAG AGAIN could raise (3-bet, here) a number of holdings for value that you beat.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think even a lot of 2+2ers are 3-betting turns on draws for value.

But my main problem is, we have somewhat of a read and were not using it too much. We know he's a TAG, aggressive preflop, so we are able to limit his range of hands somewhat. We were able to cap for value preflop because we know that since he's somewhat aggressive, there are some hands he could be 3-betting that we have an edge against (TT,JJ,AK,AQs maybe). Postflop, the read is he is more passive, lets use that. How many TAG players raise all those callers on the flop w/ AKo? (Of course he'll raise w/ a diamond draw). Now the turn. If he's passive, he will not bet AKo, and probably take a free one w/ AK of diamonds as well since he knows he probably does not have the best hand. Therefore if we have the best hand and check he will take the free card. If we c/r, a somewhat more passive player is not going to 3-bet with a draw here, even if he somehow had an OESFD. Given the flop play, I just don't see a turn c/r being useful here.

Also, I'm still not sure what the best flop line is, but I still like betting out.

[krishanleong]

Turnip is correct. CR the turn sucks. No guarentee that villan with bet the turn. But even so, the idea of forcing out the middle men is absurd. What has to happen for you to loose by leaving them in. They have to have a live draw. They have to hit that draw. And you have to be AHEAD aleady on the turn. This is way too thin. I think most often if you CR the turn you pay 2 extra BB to lose the hand. You can't even take a free showdown since you are out of position.

The consensus is that you are behind here on the flop. I'm not so sure TT and Aj or a big flush draw might not play it this way. I 3-bet the flop and check call if he caps. If he doesn't I'm leading the turn confident that have good pot equity.

Krishan

[MoreWineII]

See, I think it's more likely that you can get the calling stations out on the flop than most of y'all do. You'd be immediately confronting them with two bets cold. And they might think it's going to be capped behind them, which they have to factor into their decision. You're not going to get rid of flush draws or jacks probably, but hey...

I just don't think there's that big of an equity bonus to be gained by waiting to check-raise a non-scary turn card in this particular situation. I'd rather *attempt* to clear out some riff-raff in this already-large pot.

And what if PF3B checks the turn through? Then you're just hating life. It's not a huge stretch to think that PF3B could be playing AK this way.

Would any of your opinions change if you thought that the other players were likely to fold to a flop 3-bet?

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
Would any of your opinions change if you thought that the other players were likely to fold to a flop 3-bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you knew some of the others would fold the flop w/ a 3-bet then I think thats the way to go. On the flop, I'm not ready to conceed that our TAG villian has the best of us, and clearing out other players would be beneficial to us.

Whats your turn line if this succeeds and elminates some of the opponents? Are you c/r the turn? Are you leading the turn? Does it matter if the TAG caps or just calls the 3-bet?

What's your turn line if they all call and the pot has a bazillion bets in it when TAG 1. caps or 2. 3bets?

[MoreWineII]

[ QUOTE ]
Whats your turn line if this succeeds and elminates some of the opponents? Are you c/r the turn? Are you leading the turn? Does it matter if the TAG caps or just calls the 3-bet?

What's your turn line if they all call and the pot has a bazillion bets in it when TAG 1. caps or 2. 3bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I 3-bet and PF3B doesn't cap, I'm leading a non A or K turn regardless of whether or not I cleared out any of the other dudes. At that point, I don't think you can try for a check-raise anymore.

If I 3-bet and PF3B does cap, then I might try for a turn check-raise if other players are still in the hand. Then again, it doesn't matter how many players I clear out if I'm holding the second-best hand, unless I can clear them all out - which isn't happening. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Quite frankly, I'm pretty uncertain about any course of action all throughout this hand. It's a good thread.

[sthief09]

make it 30...

[turnipmonster]

[ QUOTE ]

but he'd be correct to play hands that I beat this same way,

[/ QUOTE ]

what hands that we are beating will be play this way? AJ is not a valid answer /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

--turnipmonster

[DrGutshot]

30 and slow down to a cap :\

if he checks through a blank turn i punch myself. very hard.

-DrG

[ErrantNight]

put yourself in those shoes. what are the range of hands that you'd 3-bet from late position to buy the button against a field of weak bettors.

come the flop... what hands do you raise?

I don't see why the consensus is that you're behind. A TAG does NOT need AA, KK, or JJ to play this way. you're ahead of everything else.

someone do a bayesian on this, i'm begging you.

i think the arguments for not c/r the turn are solid.

i think everyone arguing you're likely behind at this point in the hand is jumping to way too quick a conclusion.

and it's fine to disagree, but why is everyone looking at this like a simple way ahead way behind hand? there's THREE other people in this pot who might be able to outdraw you.

[blackaces13]

[ QUOTE ]
4-bet (bet + 3 raises) cap on all streets in AC.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not at Harrah's. 5 there.

[scrub]

[ QUOTE ]
don't know if this is just a weak/tight afternoon for me, but I see this as being an ok spot to wait for the turn with the intention of c/r a LP bet assuming a friendly card.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sitting in a computer cluster with Evan and edtost reading this thread.

Evan busts out: "Checkraising expensive streets is the new black."

Scrub laughs.

scrub

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]
Sitting in a computer cluster with Evan and edtost reading this thread.

Evan busts out: "Checkraising expensive streets is the new black."

Scrub laughs.


[/ QUOTE ]

Back after turning in (late) my final paper of the semester, already half toasted, scrolling back through 10 pages of nonsense hoping to find some sorta, uh, new thinking, or results...

and instead, finding this...

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[bdk3clash]

Yeah, so here's the rest of the hand.

I ended up 3-betting, one of the EP players called, PF3B called.

Turn was the 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. I bet, both called.

River was the 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif. I bet, EP called, PF3B called and immediately showed KK (no diamonds), and I mucked discretely.

EP showed 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif4/images/graemlins/spade.gif and won.