A thought on blind stealing

[eastbay]

Say you're on the bubble and need to steal to stay alive. It's 200/400 and you've got about 1800 on the SB after posting and pick up something like T8s. Not a terrible hand, but one you don't want called. BB has 2k after posting.

I'm beginning to think that raising to 1000 is usually the right play here. I think many players read this as "please call" and are far less likely to call you with something like Kx or Qx.

Obvious? Wrong?

eastbay

[lorinda]

Obvious? Wrong?

Incredibly level dependent I suspect.

It's wrong in the very low games for sure, I like it in the mid games, and in the high games you might get a stop-go stuffed in your face.
I think that used wisely after carefully assessing the game you are in, it could be a very good play indeed.

Lori

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Obvious? Wrong?

Incredibly level dependent I suspect.

It's wrong in the very low games for sure, I like it in the mid games, and in the high games you might get a stop-go stuffed in your face.
I think that used wisely after carefully assessing the game you are in, it could be a very good play indeed.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

I play in the $55 and $109 party games, and think it may apply in both.

I agree it's probably worthless in lower games.

eastbay

[stripsqueez]

you cant fold after raising that amount - i suppose you might get called and fold to an ugly flop but your basically commited - a reasonable player in the BB knows this but i doubt that a lot of them go on to wonder why you didnt push

when someone does this to me unless i know they are good or i know they routinely push i do what i would of done if they had pushed - so many chooks that its rare that i dont treat such a bet as a push

i have heard the argument that you should raise rather than push in push situations in order to disguise the monster starting hands - i think in the context of 65,000 players, mostly chooks, playing at empire/party poker such tactics are akin to taking a knife to a gun fight

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[lorinda]

I play in the $55 and $109 party games, and think it may apply in both.

It might be worth recording what happens for the next 30 or so times it comes up.

I don't think in those games you're going to really hurt yourself with a smallish sample like that, but it's possible you'll find a gem.

Lori

[lorinda]

Going a little further here.

If you go all in versus a multitabler, then they will make whatever their standard play is, which is likely to be correct.

Doing it your way might make them stop and think a little, which gives them an opportunity to make an error.

I suspect this play is not -EV in your games.

Lori

[Gramps]

Depends. Could mean monster, could mean you'd like to steal the blinds but are afraid of committing all of your chips. Once you do it more than once to the same player/in the same game, any observant player will see that it's probably the latter and that they should lower their playback standards against this raise.

Are you folding if the BB comes over the top of you? Because if I'm the BB and I have 55 or A7s and playback at you knowing that this is a standard play of yours regardless of your hand strength, I'd sure as heck love to pick up 1400 free chips instead of having to showdown a winner for 2400 chips...so...

...don't let it get to the point where your opponents know that raise means "I want chips but don't want to put my stack at risk to get them."

[assron]

imo, if you want to disguise your monster starting hands, why not take a more aggressive route and steal hard with everything. if you cant fold yourself when you get beat, then why kill your (I hate this term) folding equity. if I see someone routinely raising small amounts on steals, trying that fake-me-out min raise of death, I'm going to come over the top as soon as I pick up a hand, stack permitting, to see what their stones are made of. Usually they're not made of much. If I'm going to make a LAG raise, I'm going to sell it hard... that's just me though, I might be an aggressive nutcase.

[lorinda]

I think the point is to commit enough of your chips to make it clear you are not folding (The original example might need to be 1200) but make it look like you didn't go all-in for some other reason.

For the previous poster who mentioned about losing folding equity, the question is can we raise the folding equity in a perverse backwards way against medium-good players.

Lori

[assron]

you definitely raise the folding equity if you mix up your raises. You cant expect to get the fold though if you're consistently raising low... any good player is going to reraise you to see if your hand is any good and can get an easy yes/no answer from you. Worse yet, they can call and see if they hit their marginal starting hand and have good odds to call your impending push. I dont like that happening to me, I'm raising hard.

I do throw in a minraise here or there though if I've been pushing too many hands and want to look like I'm dying for action. You have to have the right table image for it to work though.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the point is to commit enough of your chips to make it clear you are not folding (The original example might need to be 1200) but make it look like you didn't go all-in for some other reason.

For the previous poster who mentioned about losing folding equity, the question is can we raise the folding equity in a perverse backwards way against medium-good players.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly right.

This isn't something you'd do every orbit, and it takes a bit of a particular situation to even have the opportunity. You have to be a threat to the other player's stack, and you have to have enough chips that what you leave isn't a totally silly amount. It has to be kind of borderline, like you're trying to pretend that you might fold as enticement for a raise, but it also seems clear that you actually won't.

At the same time, minraising often makes it cheap enough for people to want to see flops, and you definitely don't want that here.

eastbay

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Depends. Could mean monster, could mean you'd like to steal the blinds but are afraid of committing all of your chips. Once you do it more than once to the same player/in the same game, any observant player will see that it's probably the latter and that they should lower their playback standards against this raise.

Are you folding if the BB comes over the top of you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Certainly not. And I agree with the overuse problem. It'd be a mix-up play.

I'm a habitual pusher. I generally am making correct plays vs. the range of hands that call me. However, what this play attempts to do is alter (narrow) that range, if even slightly, to increase my $EV.

Even if I know that my play is correct if KQ decides to call, I'd rather it didn't most of the time.

eastbay

[captZEEbo1]

I've JUST come up with this same theory myself. I figured it out at the $20s and $30s. For some reason, people have a problem pushing allin over the top, KNOWING you'll call (pot committed raise), with K or A hi. However, when you go allin, this is people's window to call with 98s, A2, K9, Q8, etc. I've been having more success with raising random amounts than just pushing. For some reason, when you go allin people think you are desperately trying to get them to fold.

[ghostface]

I have noticed this at the 10s also. When I push steal in a tougher game that has 5-6 left at levels 4 and 5 I feel like I get more calls just because I pushed and am "desperate" in their eyes.

[Sluss]

This always stops me in my tracks. Guy who has been pushing short stacked just raises. About 800 alarms go off in my head.

I like it as long as you KNOW the big blind as a smart, observant player. I can think of maybe two players that I play against that this would work. And this is at pokerroom 33s and 54s where I probably see the same 35 players every two days. At party I've got to think you could go a month without seeing the same person.

[rachelwxm]

As you mentioned one reason of this is that you are trying to alter the calling range by bb fearing your monster holding. But on the other hand, how likely is people try to stop and go you or try to call and play the flop out. Since you only hit flop like 30% of time. Are you going to call all in on flop with T8 no hit?

Another thing about this is in shorthanded games it is usually good to be aggressor, let's say I have 22 usually I would fold to your all in here if I believe best chance is a coin flip. But your raise opens a lot of options for me. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Just my thoughts.

[Paragon]

If I need chips, or perhaps when I'd actually prefer a showdown, I sometimes try these 70%-of-my-stack steals. However, I don't think you gain much at all by using it against "smart, observant" players. The experienced ones usually realize it's equivalent to an allin and react accordingly. Alarms going off in my head or not, I just consider it the same move when I see it used on me unless I have a strong read. That's why I prefer to do this against people I consider less skilled, since they don't realize I'm committed and sometimes get confused/worried.

If anything, I try to limp every so often to mix up my pre flop action in the sb. That can get dangerous of course, but it usually better disguises premium hands when you finally get them.

[morgan180]

question - if you get called does it become a stop/go situation? are you pushing the rest on the flop regardless or on a non-scary board?

I would think with the pot odds the right move is an auto-push on a non-scary board and probably a push anyways?

[Vetstadium]

I have two questions on blind stealing: say you are big blind at a $33 party mini blinds 50-100 are you almost obligated to call a min raise with nearly every two card cards? Also say there are 5 left and I am small blind same scenario I am second to lowest in chips with 900 it is folded to me should I be pushing here with almost any two cards knowing in the long run BB will usually fold at this point and if I do get picked off the number of blinds I have stolen will make up for the hands I have lost. I am just figuring with 5 left as long as my all in raise would hurt the BB chips stack or even knock him out his defending or calling hands should tighten.

[ericlambi]

My question is, what do you do if you get re-raised all-in?

Call because of pot-odds and hope you aren't dominated?

I have the worst luck with blind stealing, and I think the reason is it only has to not work once in a tournament for you to be gone unless you are on a pretty deep stack (I'm talking late, where blinds are 200+).

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
My question is, what do you do if you get re-raised all-in?

Call because of pot-odds and hope you aren't dominated?

I have the worst luck with blind stealing, and I think the reason is it only has to not work once in a tournament for you to be gone unless you are on a pretty deep stack (I'm talking late, where blinds are 200+).

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course you call, and of course this is no worse than moving in and getting called.

eastbay