Can this really be a fold?

[ilya]

The button hadn't been particularly tight, and I thought this call was probably correct. but the ICM seems to disagree. Can it really be better to fold here?!

***** Hand History for Game 1311274505 *****
300/600 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 7953923) - Fri Dec 17 01:56:12 EST 2004
Table Table 13850 (Real Money) -- Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 3: kidcomesback (3410)
Seat 4: Cheeseweasel (3260)
Seat 7: mike5610 (670)
Seat 10: mrzarembsky (660)
mrzarembsky posts small blind (150)
kidcomesback posts big blind (300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to mrzarembsky [ 7h, 7s ]
Cheeseweasel folds.
mike5610 raises (670) to 670
mike5610 is all-In.
mrzarembsky calls (510)
mrzarembsky is all-In.

[pshreck]

Yes, and the reason why is, you have to beat 2 players to place. The BB (unless he is awful) will call this, meaning you have to beat 2 other players with sevens. If either player wins, you bust 4th. Let the other small stack do his coinflip situation. If he doubles up your not done yet anyways.

I think you gotta fold this.

[lorinda]

I think we're heads up most times here.

I've never used the ICM, but does it consider the huge edge your opponent gets over you by winning this pot?

If you were up against one of the other two stacks, I could understand it.

Lori

[eastbay]

Spell out your analysis for the break-even win %.

eastbay

[Mr_J]

Why HU most of the time? BB only has to call $370 to have a stab at the $1120 already in the pot (assuming SB folds).

Pushing is better if he can outplay his opponents by quite a bit. If he's only marginally better than them, then it's better to fold.

edit to say that by 'quite a bit' I mean that he could tear them apart /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[lorinda]

My bad, for some reason I read the blinds as 75/150 as I'm so used to halving what it says on the top row of the HH.

I managed not to read that and halve the actual blinds /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

This does seem to be a fold now.

Lori

[ChrisV]

It looks like a fold to me. If your and mike's chip amounts were reversed it'd be an easy call of course.

[stripsqueez]

[ QUOTE ]
It looks like a fold to me. If your and mike's chip amounts were reversed it'd be an easy call of course.

[/ QUOTE ]

i was wondering today if when deciding who comes 3rd or 4th (when both are knocked out together) the amount of any blind posted counts ? - probably i should know this or be able to work out what is fair and therefore probably right but i dont/cant

i think this is an auto fold because its not a great spot to call and you have a clear opportunity to make money by folding

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[lorinda]

Whoever had the most chips when the cards were dealt takes the higher placing.

I once successfully argued in a casino that the sidepot is worked out first, so the person who had the most chips should not get the money as his cards are revealed before the player with the shorter stack and hence gets eliminated first /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Lori

[captZEEbo1]

I don't know, I'm kind of skeptical that it's correct to fold. I think if you fold and mike goes bust, you have virtually NO chance at better than 3rd. However, if you call and win, you'll have enough chips to have fold equity over the bigstacks. The other thing is, the other guy is pushing "random 2", he is likely pushing at least a K hi...but possible two overcards or any pair. It's a tough call

[ilya]

Well, I ran it through PokerStove & the ICM calculator with a range for the pusher that I thought was about right considering what I had observed. I assumed that the BB would always call whether or not I came into the pot, which is only a very slight simplification here IMO. This is what I got:

F, Short Stack wins .094
(2740/510/3260/1490)

F, SS Loses .231
(4230/510/3260)

F, SS Wins Blinds .102
(3110/510/1120/3260)

Call, Lose 0.000000

Call, Win
(3260,10, 1980, 2750 0.304
3260, 0, 1980, 2760 0.304)




Short Stack range:

AA-22 (73 hands), AK-A2, KQ-K2, QJs-Q6s, QJo-Q8o, JTs-87s, J9s-T8s, J8s, JTo 59%

vs.

random 41%


(0.59)(0.094) + (0.41)(0.231) = 0.05546 + 0.09471 = 0.15017 equity if I fold


Calling:

(0.58)(0.00) + (0.42)(0.304) = 0.128 equity if I call